Hurricane Joaquin Forecast: Why U.S. Weather Model Has Fallen Behind

If you live in the Pacific Northwest, the blog of the professor mentioned in the article, Cliff Mass, is a must-read: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;cliffmass.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;cliffmass.blogspot.com</a>

This was a fascinating read. I found the initial bit interesting that other models were ahead because they simply had more raw computational power, though it later adds that there may be other subtle differences.

Anyone in this field says it&#x27;s extremely complicated. NASA (or ESA) probably would solve this, if we didn&#x27;t underfund them so much. To those advocating to privatizing, I don&#x27;t see how the private sector could solve it by themselves. Just like McDonalds didn&#x27;t land on the moon. It&#x27;s extremely complicated. The task is going to require a lot more scientists and innovators to understand our weather patterns, it&#x27;s my opinion that the best way to do that, is through the large governments of the world (not just USA&#x27;s govt).

It seems quite strange if computing power is really the bottleneck here. What sort of architecture would you have for a weather prediction system where you would spend more on computing power than researchers&#x27; salaries?

I only have a few unrelated anecdotes to draw from, but my impression is that there is an outsized political influence on where in the US the currently allocated R&amp;D funding is being spent.

&gt; <i>Maybe it will be Joaquin’s false alarm, not another Hurricane Sandy, that gets America to make the G.F.S. great again.</i><p>Or maybe it will prompt the usual suspects to &quot;privatize&quot; the whole thing i.e. cut funding under the assumption that private enterprise, or churches, or whatever the hell else, will pick up the slack.

When the party that controls Washington has not believing in climate change as a party platform I don&#x27;t see a dramatic increase in budget for climate scientists coming anytime soon. Thankfully we can use the European model!

Do those in charge actually want accurate predictions? The hurricane is going to go where it is going to go, the model has no impact on the realworld path. If we know the path with certainty then those in the path can take appropriate measures. But what is we enjoy those measures and want to do them regardless of where the storm will actually hit?<p>What a storm might be approach the executive branch of the local government goes into emergency mode. Emergency funds are spent on preparations. Some government workers are sent home. Schools might be closed. Evacuation orders may be issued. Town mayors and, importantly, state governors all go on TV to talk about these preparations. The local executives get to do their lord-and-master thing. If the storm hits, they looks like heroes. If it doesn&#x27;t, they still look like dutiful public servants concerned for the safety of their public. Some people enjoy a good disaster rehearsal, especially if they get to be the one in charge.<p>Imho the private sector, specifically the insurance, travel and tourism industries are the ones who want accurate models. That isn&#x27;t to say that prediction should be privatized. The government is probably in the better place to handle forecasting. But the demand on politicians for better models&#x2F;funding arises from industry, not any noble desire to avoid widespread emergency declarations.