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Are global wages about to turn?

49 点作者 SimplyUseless超过 9 年前

6 条评论

alexhu11超过 9 年前
The elephant in the room I don&#x27;t hear people discussing is the impending spectre of deflation. If the labor supply diminishes what happens to aggregate demand? Judging from the example of Japan, demands implodes as fewer people buy goods and services because they aren&#x27;t working! This deflates the currency and pushes the economy in recession.<p>Most of the developed world is sloughing off huge portions of its working populations. For example, Italy is set to halve its workforce in the next decade. There are huge economic, social, and political ramifications.
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hwstar超过 9 年前
I have to disagree about the demographics. The job market will not improve. It will continue to deteriorate.<p>China may have a growing middle class, but there are over 1 billion people in India and 1.1 billion people in Africa which have yet to be brought into the middle class, and companies will take advantage of this army of reserve labour.<p>By the time these countries have been exploited, then robotics will have taken over and most everyone will be unemployed.<p>Once fully automated, are the owners of the robots going to be even richer than today, and the rest of the world population left to live in misery, or will there be a revolution (peaceful or violent) which forces redistribution?
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csense超过 9 年前
&gt; The global population grew at a rate of almost 2% a year throughout the 1950s, the 1960s, the 1970s and the 1980s. That slowed to a rate of between 1% and 1.5% a year in the 1990s and 2000s and that rate of change is now forecast to fall relatively quickly...The working-age share rose strongly for the 40 years to 2012...An ONS report of 2014 found that UK real wages in the 1970s and 1980s grew by an average of 2.9% a year. That fell to 1.5% in the 1990s, and 1.2% between 2000 and 2010...<p>According to the article&#x27;s own data, rising real wages have occurred during a time of increasing population and an increasing share of the population being working-age, and slowed as population growth slowed. But the article goes on to argue<p>&gt; A smaller workforce though should raise demand for workers<p>but doesn&#x27;t this contradict the very evidence cited in the article?
konschubert超过 9 年前
I see two ways how wages can grow: More wealth is generated (per time) or income is redistributed to the working population.<p>I don&#x27;t see how any of these follow from the observations noted in the article.
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mjevans超过 9 年前
How about the impact of automation on jobs. Will this finally mean that we have robots perform more of the drudgery work? Maybe a return to artisans lovingly crafting luxury goods?
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Swizec超过 9 年前
Does this mean that there are less people competing for jobs every year and we should negotiate accordingly?<p>What are the implications on job hopping? In theory my market value should go up every year even if all other factors remain constant.
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