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The Slippery Eel of Probability

21 点作者 kareemm超过 9 年前

3 条评论

jonahx超过 9 年前
Couching this as a mysterious and shocking challenge to our belief in the certainty of math is silly. It doesn't prove that probability problems can "many different answers, all apparently equally valid" -- it just proves that humans can create questions that seem well-formed when in fact they are not.
Xcelerate超过 9 年前
The problem provided in the article and Bertrand's paradox don't seem to have "more than one answer" to me. The problems are incomplete and ill-posed. Taken to its extreme, it would be like asking: what is the probability that more than 1,000 unobservable universes exist outside of our own? So little is specified that you can't even begin to calculate a probability; the question is meaningless (particularly since there's no way to test your prediction, even in theory).
buzzdenver超过 9 年前
A similar one is the Sleeping Beauty Problem<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Sleeping_Beauty_problem" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Sleeping_Beauty_problem</a><p>I agree with the other two posts that problems like these are very uninteresting from a math point of view.