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The New Atomic Age We Need

258 点作者 markmassie超过 9 年前

26 条评论

T-A超过 9 年前
&gt; We already know that today’s energy sources cannot sustain a future we want to live in.<p>Is this really true? In Lazard&#x27;s 2014 comparison of total cost per MWh, both wind and solar beat coal and nuclear [1]. Costs have fallen so much that it&#x27;s becoming hard to justify continued subsidies [2].<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;energyinnovation.org&#x2F;2015&#x2F;02&#x2F;07&#x2F;levelized-cost-of-energy&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;energyinnovation.org&#x2F;2015&#x2F;02&#x2F;07&#x2F;levelized-cost-of-ene...</a><p>[2] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.treehugger.com&#x2F;renewable-energy&#x2F;us-energy-secretary-solar-and-wind-energy-cost-competitive-without-subsidies.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.treehugger.com&#x2F;renewable-energy&#x2F;us-energy-secreta...</a>
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PaulHoule超过 9 年前
The key problem in my mind is the failure of project management in building reactors.<p>If they said it was going to take 2 years and 1 billion dollars and it stretched out to 3 years and $1.5 billion that is one thing.<p>Back in the 1970s it was more like 2 years stretches to 9 years and $15 billion and you could blame union workers who never did nuclear work before, the no nukes, high interest rates, etc.<p>The industry was supposed to come out with standardized reactor types like the EPR, and we have low interest rates, little active opposition to nuclear power, and projects like Olkiluoto-3 are still 9 years late.<p>Nobody is going to put up billions of dollars unless there is some predictability in terms of cost and schedule. The fear of Fukushima is just icing on that cake.
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shaunrussell超过 9 年前
It is a shame that we went all in on uranium reactor technology (so we could make bombs) instead of further pursuing liquid fluoride thorium reactors, which are much safer.<p>Kirk Sorensen at <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;flibe-energy.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;flibe-energy.com&#x2F;</a> has some great talks about this. I highly recommend watching some of his content on youtube.<p>This is a good place to start: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ted.com&#x2F;talks&#x2F;kirk_sorensen_thorium_an_alternative_nuclear_fuel" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ted.com&#x2F;talks&#x2F;kirk_sorensen_thorium_an_alternati...</a>
blisterpeanuts超过 9 年前
Where are we at with nuclear fusion? At this time, the only promising progress I know of is happening at Lockheed Martin&#x27;s Skunkworks[1] where they are developing a truck-sized 100 MW [<i>corrected from Mhz</i>] power plant in an incremental, iterative fashion and claiming to have something operational by 2020.<p>As regards solar and other &quot;clean&quot; alternatives, there exists vast potential for reducing daytime electric grid load by throwing a few panels on residential and office rooftops. Why don&#x27;t more people do it? As the cost of panels plummets, the payoff time is decreasing and ROI over time is increasing.<p>A whole industry of solar panel leasing has sprung up, whereby residential home owners let an installer put in the panels for free, then pay a discounted electric rate. Not exactly like going off-grid, but it does have the same effect of reducing demand for coal&#x2F;oil&#x2F;gas generated power.<p>I&#x27;m envisioning future new home developments where every house comes with solar pre-installed. No decisions to make; the cost is baked in (so to speak) and you get a home that will incur minimal electric bills.<p>I don&#x27;t see a government role in all of these initiatives, which are market driven. People <i>want</i> green energy these days; it&#x27;s become a fad. Almost gone are the days when homeowners associations sue a member for putting &quot;ugly&quot; solar panels on his roof.<p>1. <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.eweek.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;lockheed-martin-claims-sustainable-fusion-is-within-its-grasp.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.eweek.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;lockheed-martin-claims-sustainable...</a>
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bjt超过 9 年前
While I agree with the basic argument that we are hurting ourselves with an irrational aversion to nuclear power, some of Thiel&#x27;s arguments seem weak or overreaching. The worst, in my estimation, is this:<p>&gt; Critics often point to the Chernobyl accident in the Soviet Union as an even more terrifying warning against nuclear power, but that accident was a direct result of both a faulty design and the operators’ incompetence. Fewer than 50 people were reported to have died at Chernobyl; by contrast, the American Lung Association estimates that smoke from coal-fired power plants kills about 13,000 people every year.<p>So on one hand you take the failure of a single nuclear plant, and count the direct, local deaths from that. On the other hand you take the sum of <i>all</i> coal-fired plants, and count the number of global, indirect deaths from them. OF COURSE the latter number is going to be bigger. The comparison is dishonest.
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ommunist超过 9 年前
Currently only France, US, and Russia can build reactors for energy, but these are using U or Pu in different flavours. This fuel is hard to get. China can&#x27;t afford that kind of fuel in quanities it will need. This is why China backs breakthrough research in Th fission, delivered by Norway. And this, ladies and gentlemen, is the future.
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mronge超过 9 年前
How does this compare to what Elon Musk says about solar power? In this presentation he shows that a reasonable amount of area could power the entire US (if we used roof tops etc for solar panels).<p>Is that not feasible?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;yKORsrlN-2k?t=187" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;yKORsrlN-2k?t=187</a>
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indifferentalex超过 9 年前
As much as the causes at Chernobyl can be attributed to the poor quality of the systems installed and of incorrect safety procedures, it shows that bad things can indeed happen, simply saying that they were caused by incompetence doesn&#x27;t prove nuclear power is safe. Likewise stating that &quot;fewer than 50&quot; died at Chernobyl, while possibly true (referring to the immediate area), is a severe understatement of the crisis. All european countries were forced to react, radioactive dust sent up into the air by the fires was carried across the continent and whole crops had to be destroyed. The low figure of consequential deaths is thanks to a large and costly effort to prevent further problems. Much like Fukushima. This article is reverse fear mongering and it is just as wrong, nuclear energy is without a doubt an incredible resource and the pros objectively outway the cons compared to fossil fuels, and the claim that the gap left open by insufficient adoption of renewable energy can be closed by nuclear in the meantime is a valid one, downplaying the dangers of nuclear however is not the correct way to move forward.
namespace超过 9 年前
I think that recent initiative by YC under sam to invest in startups that may herald breakthroughs in sustainable fission is a great start. This should lead to a healthy competition which so far has been missing since it used to be a government only venture for a long time.
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ilaksh超过 9 年前
That equation changes when you move to a sustainable society.<p>Much smaller residential plots in suburban&#x2F;rural areas, cut out commuting by 60 plus percent by using Skype etc. Move to much smaller single passenger electric vehicles (300 pounds instead of 3000).<p>Switch to high-tech (or low tech) efficient ultra-local food production, like potato bags on every roof, a tilapia farm on every corner. Solar on every roof, transparent VAWT on every roof. Solar roadways. Ground-source heat pump and net zero airtight ventilated homes. Wide deployment of residential energy storage.<p>We can literally make society 5-10 times more efficient.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;runvnc.github.io&#x2F;tinyvillage" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;runvnc.github.io&#x2F;tinyvillage</a>
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jkot超过 9 年前
Coal plan produces more radioactivity than nuclear plant. There are radioactive elements in coal and they get released in smoke into atmosphere.
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ScottBurson超过 9 年前
I&#x27;m in the middle of reading a great book on geoengineering, Oliver Morton&#x27;s <i>The Planet Remade</i>. Engagingly written and comprehensive; I recommend it highly. From the introduction:<p><i>If the world had the capacity to deliver one of the largest nuclear power plants ever built once a week, week in and week out, it would take 20 years to replace the current stock of coal-fired plants (at present, the world builds about three or four nuclear power plants a year, and retires old ones almost as quickly).</i><p>Morton goes on to make the case for considering geoengineering, and for ramping up research on it. I don&#x27;t know that I can do justice to the argument in a short summary, but one key point is the extent to which we&#x27;re already doing it in an unplanned way. We all know about all the carbon dioxide we&#x27;re putting in the air, along with other greenhouse gases -- nitrous oxide, for example -- but there&#x27;s also the massive amount of reactive nitrogen we&#x27;re creating, mostly for fertilizer. We all know about the massive local environmental effects of burning coal, but there&#x27;s also some evidence that coal smoke has a cooling effect; changing from coal to nuclear may actually worsen warming in the short run.<p>I was favorably disposed toward geoengineering before I got the book, so I can&#x27;t claim to have been won over, but there was an awful lot I didn&#x27;t know about it -- for example, how the various approaches would affect different regions of the globe differently, and how those effects could be adjusted to some extent, though not optimized for everyone simultaneously.<p>Again, I highly recommend it.
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lumberjack超过 9 年前
Nuclear Fission is not a plug and play solution either. Unlike other possible solutions like a breakthrough in mass energy storage, we know that fission could satisfy our needs. But it will still require some 30 years of investment to figure out the new breed of reactors and where to source the fuel from.
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Zigurd超过 9 年前
After reading this, I still have mixed feelings about nuclear. On the one hand, we have an overhang of old-tech nuclear power that is dangerously obsolete, poorly run, and insanely expensive to build, run, and clean up after.<p>On the other hand, new-tech nuclear looks very attractive. The argument gets circular, because new-tech nuclear is speculative. Lots of old-tech nuclear should get shut before we get another Fukushima. So despite the theoretical ability to scale up faster, does nuclear <i>really</i> have an advantage over renewables?
nova22033超过 9 年前
In 1949 the federal government built a test facility at Idaho National Laboratory to study and evaluate new nuclear reactor designs. We owe our nuclear power industry to the foresight of those New Dealers, and we need their openness to innovation again today.<p>Thiel is a self-described conservative libertarian.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Peter_Thiel#Political_activities" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Peter_Thiel#Political_activiti...</a>
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danbruc超过 9 年前
Why not simply outlaw nonrenewable energy sources over ten years or so? Problem solved.<p>EDIT: Would someone care to point out why that is not an valid option? Lack of technological viability? Lack of energy storage technology or capacity? Ideological resentment against a political over an economical driving force for the change?
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Pietertje超过 9 年前
Does somebody know if nuclear power will actually be an improvement for the environment (only considering temperature here)? Essentially you just release heat which is stored as mass.<p>A quick calculation shows that if you only consider heating up our atmosphere and assume an entire switch of all our energy consumption to nuclear energy you end up with a temperature rise of 0.1 deg C per year. I know it is a worst-case scenario - energy will be stored in land&#x2F;water as well, dissipation etc. - but still.<p>Compared to fossil fuels, the plus side is you do not produce any greenhouse gases. However, I&#x27;m unsure which contributes more to global warming, could well be the former is negligible. Would love to hear an expert on this.
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11thEarlOfMar超过 9 年前
YC has two nuclear start ups: Helion and UPower. How are they doing? What is their path to prominence?
tomohawk超过 9 年前
Any technology that requires political machinations to work is a non-starter.<p>Nuclear technology&#x27;s achille&#x27;s heel is waste disposal. Sure, there are technical aspects to it, but it&#x27;s mostly a problem in the political realm.<p>The Feds were supposed provide a disposal mechanism, but there&#x27;s apparently no political will to do that any longer. Instead, we have nuclear waste piling up all over the place at facilities that were never meant to store it. As soon as we have a natural disaster at one of these facilities, it will be like fukushima all over again. Such a shame.
dfar1超过 9 年前
Coincidence that this article is released at the same time as the youtube&#x2F;google petition campaign?
jensen123超过 9 年前
He does not mention bombs. I&#x27;m certainly no expert here, but I think I read in the book An Inconvenient Truth by Al Gore a long time ago, that if you have the ability to build a nuclear power plant, then building a bomb is not very hard.<p>I&#x27;m not terribly keen on living in a world where most of the countries in Africa, the Middle East etc. are able to build nuclear bombs.
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macco超过 9 年前
I have a feeling Mr Thiel didn&#x27;t cosider important facts.<p>Nuclear energy is highly deficient, building nuclear plants uses much more energy and concrete (bad for the environment) and you have to store nuclear waste.<p>I know Thiel is a long term thinker, but maybe Kaynes view is also important.
etaty超过 9 年前
I like how Thiel writes his sentences about safety, to avoid saying anything wrong. I invite him to spend the rest of his life in Chernobyl or Fukushima.<p>Personally nuclear energy is dangerous because when it goes wrong the result is really bad.<p>And the source of error is infinite, human, software, design, terrorists, war, civil plane, drone ...
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cft超过 9 年前
I am afraid that the real goal of at least 50% of climate change activists is not clean energy, but the disruption of current elite and wealth redistribution by taxation vs value creation. It is because of these 50% the realistic proposals like Peter&#x27;s will not fly politically.
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bro-stick超过 9 年前
Thiel skips the fact that Chernobyl is uninhabitable for thousands of years (save bloggers on motorcycles), all of the dispossessed persons and extra 40k+ cancer deaths. Plus Fukashima. Big PWR&#x2F;BWR reactors will always be too inherently dangerous because of high pressures and too expensive to build, regulate and insure (in the US, without insurance <i>and</i> NRC approval, there is no project). And the risks of dual-purpose reactors and long-term storage for large amounts of waste.<p>Taylor Wilson&#x27;s TED talk on low pressure, molten salt, modular reactors built as standardized modules with a scram &#x2F; recycle pool underneath and made in a factory is one of the best ways to go. Smaller, isolated, modular setups limit failure risk compared to a single reactor having a big, explosive meltdown. The other one is thermal generation using chip-like technology with tiny amounts of radiological material isolated in individual &quot;wells&quot; making it safer, more efficient and scalable for many types of battery and generation use-cases.<p>I think we can do fission safer, cheaper and smarter, responsibly, but repeating the same failures by taking the same risks without learning from the past is inherently dumb.<p>Disclaimer: nuclear energy consultancy alum
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squozzer超过 9 年前
Forgive my skepticism, but Mr. Thiel did not offer to live near a reactor. For someone with his obvious intelligence, his oversight could not have been accidental. Does he fear the radiation or the decline in property value?<p>When a robber baron like Dale Carnegie wanted people to believe in his steel bridges, he staked his life and reputation and walked across the damned bridge.<p>Another major risk not mentioned by Mr. Thiel is a financial one, as it seems every nuclear project in the West at least has become a boondoggle. Even the project a few hours from my house - Plant Vogtle - where the state legislature generously transferred the financial risk to the taxpayers and customers - is behind schedule and over budget.<p>Until nuclear cheerleaders develop a taste for risk that will not be borne by others, maybe we should reduce consumption. If Las Vegas were to shut off 90% of its&#x27; outdoor lighting and fountain displays, would everyone there go blind and lose their enthusiasm to play slots? I doubt it. Just a thought.
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