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Using machine learning to predict basketball scores

51 点作者 prasoon2211超过 9 年前

8 条评论

ugexe超过 9 年前
The well known bettors will place bets knowing others will emulate it, moving the odds in favor of their real bet they have yet to place. I wouldn&#x27;t be surprised if some of the big Vegas books are in on it since they make their money long term on vig, and don&#x27;t have to worry about short term losses (thus enjoying any increase in bets those schemes generate).<p>There is an older 60 minutes episode on Billy Walters that is a good watch for anyone interested in people trying to beat sports books.
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Zephyr314超过 9 年前
Post author and co-founder of SigOpt (YC W15) here. Thanks for all the great questions and comments, I&#x27;ll be around all day answering questions. Feel free to ask anything about the post or what we do at SigOpt (or how).<p>All of the code can be found here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;sigopt&#x2F;sigopt-examples" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;sigopt&#x2F;sigopt-examples</a><p>More about how SigOpt works here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sigopt.com&#x2F;research" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;sigopt.com&#x2F;research</a><p>Other discussions here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;MachineLearning&#x2F;comments&#x2F;3yy0vp&#x2F;using_model_tuning_to_beat_vegas&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;MachineLearning&#x2F;comments&#x2F;3yy0vp&#x2F;usi...</a><p>and here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=10819170" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=10819170</a>
bjourne超过 9 年前
Vegas odds aren&#x27;t even the most accurate odds to beat. I.e you can already beat Vegas odds by looking at odds pinnacle, 5 dimes, bet 188 and consider them the true odds. It&#x27;s called arbitrage betting. If you have a model that can truly beat the market, then it is the players I mentioned that you want to beat.
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shabbaa超过 9 年前
Baseball feels like a next step up. About 2,400 games a year. More games, data points.. more everything
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lordnacho超过 9 年前
It&#x27;s not clear from the article what the input data is. I had a look in the repo, it wasn&#x27;t clear from that either. Is it the normal fare you&#x27;d expect?<p>I&#x27;ve heard of prop betting firms using stuff like &quot;distance travelled by the away team&quot; and other logical things like that.
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joshmn超过 9 年前
I love this, but is anyone else a bit put off by someone appending PhD in their name _on a blog post?_<p>I&#x27;m not salty or anything, and it wouldn&#x27;t have influenced me into reading the article or not. It just puts a bad taste in my mouth.
punnerud超过 9 年前
There is a TED-talk on this: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=66ko_cWSHBU" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=66ko_cWSHBU</a> (The Math Behind Basketball&#x27;s Wildest Moves)
discardorama超过 9 年前
If you can reliably beat Vegas, why not put real money into it and make lots of money?
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