Long range forecast

I see this statement often that renewables have reduced our demand for oil, but that doesn&#x27;t seem to be the case and I don&#x27;t think it explains the price drop:<p><pre><code> https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.eia.gov&#x2F;forecasts&#x2F;steo&#x2F;report&#x2F;global_oil.cfm </code></pre> It looks more like the market is being flooded with oil.<p>The price of oil is probably unsustainable for all produceres at these levels. Either the price will have to increase or the number of producers will decrease.<p>I read somewhere that the Middle Eastern countries can continue at these levels for about 5 more years. My guess is that they will try to squeeze as many competitors out of the market as possible, increase demand, and scare off any potential future investments in competing energy producers (alternative or conventional) for the following decade.

As a meteorologist, it&#x27;s the weather that fascinates me most. I think there is a lack of appreciation for what global warming really is. Temperature is the measure of kinetic energy Of particles. Air with a higher temperature has a higher kinetic energy (faster moving particles). So global warming really is an increase in the global average available kinetic energy in the Earth&#x27;s atmosphere. When written in more scientific terms, it becomes obvious that global warming should lead to more vigorous weather events - more kinetic energy, the more powerful atmospheric phenomenons that can be achieved.<p>It&#x27;s very hard to pin 2015 weather anomalies on global warming. Confounding variables (ex: El Nino, and to what extend did GW cause the EL Nino) reign. But I think it&#x27;s safe to speculate we&#x27;ve canceled the next ice age.

Negative things tend to grab our attention, but the world is actually doing pretty well. The number of people living in poverty has been going down steadily since the 70&#x27;s, for example.

I&#x27;m not disputing climate change, or the causes of it, nor that rainfall in December in parts of the UK was at a record high, with localised flooding, but this:<p>&quot;The UK just had its wettest December ever, with more than double the normal rainfall and <i>extensive floods taking out the centers of major cities</i>.&quot;<p>is hyperbole, and doesn&#x27;t help make the case.

There are no spins on Cologne - the german officials showed they are more scared of being called racists than in pursuit of justice. Same as with England case a couple of years ago.<p>This is not an immigration issue. This is failed state issue.

Boy, has this man changed. I remember him from his usenet days, before the first novel. So sad that living under close public scrutiny has this tendency to transform formerly useful people into insufferable know-it-all devotees to whatever is currently considered politically correct, who feel this need to talk about the less enlightened as &quot;insecure, threatened hominids.&quot;

I think this is spot on for futurology, although this is not what we will see in the news. We will see other stories in reaction to these events. However....<p>I have a theory that when I read something like &quot;you must read the following literature to understand what I am saying&quot; it really means &quot;what I am saying is based on faith - the beliefs of which you also must believe to take what I am saying as good&quot;. When I read this appeal, my defences go up.<p>For example in this essay:<p>&gt; (Note: As usual, there&#x27;s a lot of meat in the hyperlinks. You won&#x27;t get the most out of this essay unless you are familiar with their content.)<p>It&#x27;s saying &quot;invest your time reading this selected literature and you too will understand my beliefs&quot;.<p>Is it just me or is this an accurate rule of thumb, this appeal to the necessary canon as indicating that the views are beliefs on faith rather than logic and rationality?

The opinion that the climate change is causing the conflict in Syria is quite speculative bordering to total whack concpiratory theory.<p>The weather might be a extremely tiny part in the events, but the whole situation is the result of political-, clan-, ethnical- and religious struggles for power that&#x27;s been going on for thousands of years, and fueled by empire building super powers the last 200 years.

The self-righteous know-it-all tone is annoying.

I&#x27;m skeptical of anyone who says they can make a long term prediction of the world.<p>That being said his predictions for the world seem to be that things that are happening now will still be happening in the near future, which is a pretty safe bet.

I disagree that the capitalist class is interested in reducing immigration from developing countries. Reducing labor cost is a primary concern for this elite group.

I have nearly the 100% opposite opinion on many of these issues haha.<p>Oil is a bit of scapegoat I think. All commodities are on basically all time lows. Value of real assets across the board has been generally plummeting.<p>Hard to know how much of this is proxy selling of the Chinese economy -- I suspect a bit; it&#x27;s perhaps a plausible outcome for Chinese stocks to plunge much further and have commodities RALLY out of it on the unwind.

This is a very political article. All the predictions revolve around topical political subjects. From the current immigration issues in Europe to climate change. Climate change is definitely long term, but how many of the other issues will still be relevant decades from now?<p>And his opinions on immigration are ridiculous. The first world has had very guarded borders for a long time. The trend is going in the opposite direction, with Europe becoming more sympathetic to immigrants and letting in tons of them.<p>The author wants completely open borders, and declares this is even a civil right. Which is totally impractical and would have huge negative consequences. The author accuses anyone of being against this as being racist or right wing. He suggests some kind of conspiracy theory by rich people opposing it. As if rich people don&#x27;t benefit from immigration with cheaper labor.

We could have had nice clean safe efficient post-carbon 4th generation breeder reactors by now. Thanks Greens.

&gt;So, I&#x27;m seeing a bunch of disturbing news headlines in the new year. Mass sex attacks in Cologne on New Year&#x27;s Eve would be one (and I want you to think very hard about precisely whose political agenda benefits from the different kinds of spin that can be placed on this story depending on how it is framed)<p>What spin can be placed on it? Germans imported &quot;rape culture&quot;--the real thing, not the feminist figment--by accepting into their country thousands of young, fighting-age, middle-eastern men who practice a religion that specifically permits them to take up to four wives and as many sex slaves as they like (Sura 4 from the Qur&#x27;an). Men who fetishize white women and who view them as mere sex objects to be claimed and possessed. Germany is now reaping the consequences that all but the most deluded leftist could have predicted.<p>And Stross&#x27;s biggest concern is not for the safety of the women and girls of Europe, of his own nation, or even of his own family, but for the rise of far right politicians and parties. Guess what Charlie? If putting the far right in power is what it takes to prevent Cologne or Rotherham from happening to the women and girls I care about, then for me at least, the choice is a no-brainer. You&#x27;ve left us with no other option but to vote for the likes of UKIP, Trump, or worse.