The Electric Car may be entering its “cell phone” period

Good electric car battery standard would solve almost all of the problems of electric cars.<p>1. The battery is where most development happens and where it&#x27;s most needed. So you don&#x27;t have to worry about your car getting too old too fast. Just get fresh battery.<p>2. Range: just swap the battery if you run out of juice. They could be rented like gas bottles are at service station.<p>3. Battery charge lifespan.<p>4. Potentially emerging fuel cells. They are just a way to burn something into electricity. Why do you care what kind of black box feeds you car some current?<p>How could this be done? Build robots at service stations that lift a battery pack into the bottom of the car. Good place could be where the spare wheel currently goes. Bottom of the trunk. You could steal mechanical locking from intermodal containers, just scale it down. And electric connectors could be upscale speakon connectors stolen from pro audio.

1) The Tesla just surpassed the Leaf as the most popular electric car (yes, even with the price difference).<p>2) Electric car perks are everywhere and rarely mentioned. Free charging, way better parking, fielding questions from curious onlookers, more cargo space, no noise, no warmup, no oil changes, etc.)<p>3) In the winter months in areas of the world with real seasons (read: not San Francisco area), cabin heating will detract significantly from your range on a long 20 degree F drive. Talking 25% less maximum range or so. You can mitigate it somewhat by using seat heat instead but I&#x27;ve found that passengers REALLY do not want to go that route (or worse, they want BOTH lol).

The potential for depreciation was a powerful deterrent for me. Assuming 20% depreciation a year, then a £65K Tesla would be &quot;costing&quot; over £1000 a month just in depreciation alone.<p>However, the Tesla Model S has apparently so far had lower depreciation than any other car in the UK[0], according to CAP Black Book (&quot;the industry benchmark for used car values&quot;[1]). Presumably this is in large part due to its relative scarcity (still a 2 month lead time for a new one, so an instantly-available second hand one becomes more attractive). Quite how long that situation holds remains to be seen.<p>[0] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;evobsession.com&#x2F;cap-black-book-teslas-retain-value-better-car-market&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;evobsession.com&#x2F;cap-black-book-teslas-retain-value-be...</a><p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cap.co.uk&#x2F;en&#x2F;products-and-services&#x2F;black-book&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cap.co.uk&#x2F;en&#x2F;products-and-services&#x2F;black-book&#x2F;</a><p>EDIT: The 20% depreciation was a rough estimate based on the Resale Value Guarantee if you buy on finance. Using figures of £64,600 cash price, £72,477 if bought on finance, and £37,584 Guaranteed Minimum Future Value after 3 years, then the actual &quot;worst case&quot; depreciation would be around 18% per year over 3 years.

I have exactly these dynamics with my 2013 Nissan Leaf. I leased it, assuming depreciation would be brutal on it. And it was, in fact, Nissan just offered me $5,000 credit to buy it off them, meaning I got to finance far less of the depreciation than I should have, and some corporate arm is going to take the writeoff for me.<p>I was going to buy it, but the technology is changing so quickly, it seems almost pointless. On the other hand, what is the minimum a low mileage four year old electric car would be worth, even if its range is not up to industry standards? It&#x27;s hard to imagine it would be worth less than $6k. If it is, the electric car depreciation will drive other used car values down.<p>Nissan is offering lease extensions, typically the stupidest possible way to pay for driving a car, but in this case, I think it&#x27;s probably a good idea. The internal pressure to innovate against GM and Tesla means they are going to be aggressively obsoleting these older cars.

&gt; There is a $7500 federal tax rebate on a new electric car, so the moment you drive it off the lot, its blue book value drops an additional $7500.<p>But isn&#x27;t that fine because you got the $7500 anyway?

Since people would start to want to buy cars more frequently because of the constant increate in performance&#x2F;features (which the article is saying will be faster than the current state of motor innovation), would the car manufacturers be able to offer lower-cost models that would be bought every 3&#x2F;4 years.<p>They could recoup the money from cheaper cars from the faster purchase cycle.<p>Or else move to a leasing model (this is becoming more popular with people I know in the UK, Ireland).

Assuming that the article is correct and that adoption is being hampered by concerns about secondhand values, rebates and diminishing relative performance, then leasing would seem to offer the best option. You can always then turn in you existing model for a better one after a couple of years.<p>However, this doesn&#x27;t seem that green. You might not be pushing clouds of particulates into the air around your home, but there is still the power consumed in manufacturing a new car for you every 2 years.<p>Perhaps, the Riversimple model would also work for electric cars. They sell you mobility as a service - and the motivation to keep you moving efficiently remains with them. In theory this should force them to keep the vehicle upgradable. <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;riversimple.com&#x2F;how-the-business-works&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;riversimple.com&#x2F;how-the-business-works&#x2F;</a><p>The comparison with phones is interesting. We are starting to get phones with batteries that can&#x27;t be changed. Do we now just plan to throw them away every 2 years, or are we actually losing interest and need to be forced to upgrade?

Current oil prices make electronic cars a total personal economic loss.

I&#x27;ve read fairly similar takes comparing EVs to the digital camera. I&#x27;m very interested to see what ends up happening, but my guess is the car market will be quite unique.<p>I do think the author is overestimating the importance of peripheral functions of cars.

Them child miners had better get digging cobalt faster !<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amnesty.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;latest&#x2F;news&#x2F;2016&#x2F;01&#x2F;Child-labour-behind-smart-phone-and-electric-car-batteries&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amnesty.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;latest&#x2F;news&#x2F;2016&#x2F;01&#x2F;Child-labour-...</a>

Here&#x27;s a question I&#x27;ve always wanted to ask someone about electric cars: Why don&#x27;t the companies make cars with detachable batteries, and basically do a battery &#x27;swap&#x27; in the charging stations, so that the charging time becomes very little, if people want to?

As the long as the charging is not way faster I do not see mass adoption.<p>If you&#x27;re using cars just in the city then charging is no issue but for long distance travel it is one. Only way is to own at least two cars but this can&#x27;t be the solution.

Most people buy a car every three years. Sounds similar to how often people switch cell phones. I don&#x27;t think electric cars change much in regards to people always wanting something different or the shiny new model.<p>The awesome thing about the Tesla is all the over the air updates. Other car makers want you to buy the new model to get the new features.<p>I worked in the car biz for a long time.