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Life on other planets would likely be brief and become extinct very quickly

59 点作者 barce超过 9 年前

17 条评论

orf超过 9 年前
People always talk about how vast space is, but rarely about how vast time is. We&#x27;ve been looking for life for the last what, 60 years or so? It seems like not only is space so vast which makes finding evidence of life hard, but this is made even harder by the small volume of time we are likely to be around to try and observe in the grand scheme of things. Alien life has to be relatively close in terms of distance as well as time.<p>What if our closest alien life became discoverable (started emitting radio signals or other signs) a million years from now? Would we be around to see it?
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civilian超过 9 年前
I&#x27;ve been reading The Vital Question by Nick Lane, where he puts forth some theories about the origin of eukaryotes, and life in general. It does make it seem that abiogenesis and eukaryote-genesis are much more difficult than we give them credit for.<p>So in the Drake Equation, I think that F[L] is probably pretty low.<p>And because eukaroyte genesis is difficult and only happened once (and it took a billion years of bacteria &amp; archea hanging out before we got a eukaryote), and eukaryotes are a prereq for multi-cellular organisms and thus intelligent life, F[i] is also really low.<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;The-Vital-Question-Evolution-Origins&#x2F;dp&#x2F;0393088812" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;The-Vital-Question-Evolution-Origins&#x2F;d...</a>
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netinstructions超过 9 年前
Is there anything revelatory in this article? I didn&#x27;t see any links or references to new papers&#x2F;ideas, but some Googling returned this 2016 PDF[1] titled &#x27;The Case for a Gaian Bottleneck&#x27; by Aditya Chopra from ANU.<p>There&#x27;s been discussion in the past[2][3] about these &#x27;Great Filters&#x27; that prevent life from occurring everywhere in the universe.<p>[1]<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;adi.life&#x2F;pubs&#x2F;ChopraLineweaver2016.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;adi.life&#x2F;pubs&#x2F;ChopraLineweaver2016.pdf</a><p>[2]<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;mason.gmu.edu&#x2F;~rhanson&#x2F;greatfilter.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;mason.gmu.edu&#x2F;~rhanson&#x2F;greatfilter.html</a><p>[3]<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;waitbutwhy.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;05&#x2F;fermi-paradox.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;waitbutwhy.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;05&#x2F;fermi-paradox.html</a>
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phreeza超过 9 年前
My personal lesson from the fermi paradox and the drake equation in particular is that we humans are terrible at grasping very small probabilities. Intuition completely fails when we have to decide if something has the probability 10^-5 or 10^-50, which makes sense because for almost all practical purposes both are almost zero in most situations, but for edge cases like the drake equation they make all the difference.
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theboywho超过 9 年前
The problem with this reasoning is that it considers this to be true: if intelligent life exists, we are gonna be able to understand its intelligence.<p>What if there exist an intelligent life, so intelligent that their level of intelligence compared to ours is like comparing ours with...cats. We all know small genetic mutations can have huge impact. So huge they might just be technically&#x2F;biologically out of reach.<p>So maybe an intelligent life exists out there, but they are so ahead of us that we are not even capable of understanding how. Like a little cat watching a car thinking maybe it&#x27;s an animal.
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Animats超过 9 年前
Industrial civilization may not last very long. Industrial civilization on Earth is only about 200 years old. A useful starting point is the first time a railroad train carried paying passengers. There were earlier demos and prototypes, but think of that as the moment the Industrial Revolution got out of beta. Progress up to then was very slow. Progress after that was very fast.<p>About 75 years ago, progress reached the point that a substantial dent could be made in the planet&#x27;s resources. Until then, human activity just wasn&#x27;t large scale enough. Now, we can see the end in sight for many resources. On a scale of centuries, most mineral resources run out.<p>The high-power, heavy industry phase of life may have an expiration date that&#x27;s closer in time than the founding of Oxford University.
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interdrift超过 9 年前
Imagine how easily we can also become extict and even our most powerful technology isn&#x27;t powerful enough to save us. Imagine a big explosion in our galaxy , like that supernova that happend recently. We could die out like ants. We should be progressing faster...
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putlake超过 9 年前
Liu Cixin&#x27;s The Dark Forest, the second book in his 3-body problem trilogy, posits a similar philosophy: resources are limited so civilizations annihilate other civilizations. So if an alien civilization knew about earthlings, they will destroy earth ASAP if they are capable, lest the earthlings come after their resources.<p>This is also why some people believe we should not try to make contact with intelligent alien life. They believe broadcasting our location is dangerous.
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reasonattlm超过 9 年前
No answer to the Fermi Paradox works if it requires all aliens to uniformly come to the same end state or satisfy some boundary condition without exception. All it takes is the one exception, one small group in one suitably advanced civilization, and you have self-replicating probes building an expanding wave of computronium, dismantling even the stars themselves as soon as the economics favor a better use for that matter. Such as more computronium.<p>The Fermi Paradox is more the Wilderness Paradox: why is everything, everywhere we look, wild and unmodified? Why are there still stars, when a simple economic analysis of our future tells us that we will tear them down in favor of more efficient arrangements of matter and energy?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.exratione.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;05&#x2F;the-cosmological-noocene&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.exratione.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;05&#x2F;the-cosmological-noocene&#x2F;</a><p>&quot;Per our present understanding of physics and intelligent economic activity, we will turn every part of the great span of the universe into our descendants if not diverted or stopped by some outside influence, stars and all. The cosmological noocene, an ocean of intelligence. That the natural universe remains present to be used by us indicates that something is awry, however, that some vital and important understanding is missing, and as a species we are still just making the first fumbling explorations of the bounds of the possible with regards to what it is that we don&#x27;t know.&quot;
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Zikes超过 9 年前
There sure are a lot of confident yet highly speculative declarations about life in that article, in spite of the fact that we currently only have a sample size of one.
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nickbauman超过 9 年前
The book <i>Rare Earth</i> covers this topic throughly. The conclusion they come to is that complex, multicellular life is likely extremely rare in the universe. But simple, microbial life may be much more common than we think.<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Rare-Earth-Complex-Uncommon-Universe&#x2F;dp&#x2F;0387952896" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Rare-Earth-Complex-Uncommon-Universe&#x2F;d...</a>
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pklausler超过 9 年前
I am convinced that we&#x27;re the first&#x2F;only space-capable species in our galaxy by the simple absence of killer self-replicating interstellar robots. I&#x27;m serious. Anything that&#x27;s remotely possible becomes inevitable on these astronomical scales, and all it takes is one jerk making one self-replicating killer robot and that&#x27;s it for life for the rest of time in the galaxy.
PaybackTony超过 9 年前
A series of unproven theories as a basis for a new theory that further unproven theories can be based on. The cornerstone of modern science.<p>There really needs to be more documented, observable data before there can be any remotely credible theory about how abundant or desolate our universe is of life. Using such observable data (we know the name) we could only surmise that in 100% of solar systems with a similar sun, bearing a planet at an adequate distance from it&#x27;s sun, will not only support life, but would have life.<p>Common sense[?] would dictate that&#x27;s very unlikely, but there&#x27;s no scientific basis yet to even theorize otherwise until we can find a way to get that data. To come up with absolutes about planets such distances away is foolish given we don&#x27;t know half a shit about the planets right next to us.
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givan超过 9 年前
Our view of life in the universe is subjective, we compare it with the only place we know it exists, earth, probably life exists in many forms not limited to how we know it or how we would expect it to evolve so probably not all life might be brief how earthers might think.<p>We are amazed how life exists in the most hostile places on earth and how it was able to adapt to very harsh conditions, probably life in universe is also full of surprises.
givan超过 9 年前
I wonder why on this subject everyone overlooks two major events witnessed by thousands of people some of which former military pilots and instead focus on science fiction scenarios.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Belgian_UFO_wave" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Belgian_UFO_wave</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Phoenix_Lights" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Phoenix_Lights</a><p>People try to explain these events in all kind of ways avoiding the most obvious one no matter what.<p>Is it fear? the lack of recognition by authorities? I never understood why people will talk freely about aliens in the universe but aliens here is always a taboo or a subject of ridicule no matter the evidence.
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njharman超过 9 年前
Compared to age of Galaxy, Life on this planet has been brief. Also, aren&#x27;t something like 99.99% of all species extinct?
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nsgoetz超过 9 年前
So life won&#x27;t always find a way?