As Zika virus spreads, El Salvador asks women not to get pregnant until 2018

Terrifying. Doing some quick back of the envelope calculations: 1,000,000 people in Brazil got the virus, and there are 4,000 cases of microcephaly. Let&#x27;s assume that most of these are caused by the virus (pre-virus level of microcephaly were very low) and assume half of the people are women. Also assume roughly two pregnancies over a women&#x27;s life, and an average life expectancy of 73 years.<p>This would mean that of the 500,000 women that got the virus, roughly 2% of these women were pregnant while getting the virus, which equates to 10,000 women, resulting in 4,000 cases of microcephaly. This would be a 40% chance of microcephaly when a woman catches the virus during pregnancy. That is absurdly high for a virus that is starting to become (or already is) an epidemic.<p>There&#x27;s many assumptions in the calculation and I&#x27;m sure the medical profession has much better numbers. As I said it&#x27;s a back of the envelope. But even if the chances are 20% or 10%, that is still extremely high and worrying. The recommendation not to get pregnant in countries where the virus is active suddenly makes sense.

This, on top of all the other mosquito-born diseases, may finally convince the authorities&#x2F;ethical commitees&#x2F;whoever has the decision power to use this CRISPR specie-killing scheme talked about some time ago. It&#x27;s scary, but it&#x27;s badly needed. Because as sibling comment said, asking people not to get pregnant will never work, anytime anywhere in the world.

Let&#x27;s all remember that abortion is illegal in El Salvador, even in cases of rape. A woman who is raped and who also gets the Zika virus has no recourse. This is a very Catholic country. Access to birth control is extremely difficult. This new government recommendation is in conflict with dozens of other laws that the El Salvador government has passed, all of which are designed to maximize pregnancy.

Diseases transmitted by mosquitos have increased tremendously in the last decade, Especially in developing nations. I am from India and we never used to hear about cases of Dengue or Chikungunya 10-15 years ago. Now its all too common. Looks like this is a similar disease, now with links to microcephaly. Dramatic increase in city populations, poor infrastructure result in increased mosquito breeding grounds These nations need to heavily invest in taking out disease carrying mosquitoes or situations like these are only going to increase.

Truly a terrible disease. The fear associated with it must be horrible for pregnant women. I wonder if the warning would be the same if the virus had killed or disfigured 4000 newborns instead of affecting fetuses. We seem to put more emphasis on the health of a fetus than anything (prenatal supplements, mother&#x27;s habits, etc).

What is the rate of ultrasounds in these countries? This deformity is very detectable. I know that the only treatment, if one can call it that, is termination, but this may be important in coming years.<p>In many communities mothers would commonly opt to terminate these pregnancies. It&#x27;s harsh and vicious, but it does happen. We need to think about such sociological differences when predicting this disease. The wave of birth defects hitting Brazil may not be replicated in countries where ultrasounds are standard and attitudes to termination differ.

The real question is:<p>Is the virus just like the flu where we kill it and life goes on? Or is the virus like herpes where it gets repressed but permanently there?

It&#x27;s mind-boggling to think of the societal effects this will have at the nationwide level for the countries where this is so prevalent. Entire programs that will need to be increased or completely created anew to handle the amount of people affected with microcephaly.<p>Likewise, depending on how effective the government&#x27;s urging will be, imagine being one of the few children born during those two years, having only 3 other children in your class through your entire primary and secondary education (I&#x27;m not sure what the El Salvador schooling program actually is, so these are large assumptions; but I imagine at this point, not entirely outside the realm of possibility).

Just wait for the Olympics to make this a worldwide epidemic...

Does anyone know if getting sick with Zika produces lifetime immunity?<p>Because if so then women should get sick on purpose, wait to get better. Then not have to worry anymore.

If this pope, and this crisis in his own back yard, aren&#x27;t sufficient to compel a change in Catholic teachings on birth control, I think it&#x27;s safe to assume it&#x27;ll not happen for generations.

We just cancelled our trip to Guatemala and Belize (planned leaving date was Feb 2nd.)<p>Just not worth the risk to go down there (Yes, my wife is pregnant)<p>Horrifying and I hope the impact can be reduced for the people living in the affected countries.

Could you imagine if China had the threat of a virus to ensure people stopped breeding for two years? Imagine the help that would&#x27;ve done to their depopulation campaign!

From what I hear, the link between microcephaly and the disease is still a matter of debate.

If they want this, they should give them the means to do that: birth control! For free!

So, what&#x27;s the current best bet to kill that type of mosquito?

I wonder what the political fallout will be from this. It&#x27;s easy to imagine Chavista and Peronist style politicians using this to their advantage.