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Australian Economist who lost bet will walk from Parliament to Mount Kosciousko

38 点作者 samh超过 15 年前

7 条评论

10ren超过 15 年前
I thought house prices in Australia would fall... of course politicians would try to try to prop them up, because falling prices would be fatally unpopular for them. But you can't keep funding housing prices forever...<p>...unless you have a source of money. Australia aka 'the lucky country' has tremendous mining resources. Now these, being commodities (e.g. copper is the same wherever you buy it), are typically cyclical in price, over a decade or so. But a strange thing has happened: Australia is currently one of the few sources of many metals in the volumes needed (by China, predominately): Australia has a 'monopoly' on these 'commodities'.<p>Thus, the sustained metal prices are propping up the housing market.<p>I don't know how sustainable this 'monopoly' is - whether e.g. higher prices will justify other countries opening up mines, or accessible reserves will be discovered elsewhere etc. I doubt it can continue indefinitely.<p><i>disclaimer: this is based on information gathered over years, and might be out of date in some respects.</i>
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jdietrich超过 15 年前
I think economics needs a lot more of this. Economists are rational people, by and large, but a lot of them have very perverse incentives. I think we could see a minor revolution in economic forecasting if we gave stronger incentives for accuracy and vice versa.
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samh超过 15 年前
Check out his Economics blog at : <a href="http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/" rel="nofollow">http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/</a><p>The most interesting thing is that he diagnoses the problems in a very similar way to Peter Schiff, but comes up with almost opposite conclusions.
ahi超过 15 年前
He's using the walk as an opportunity to raise money for Swags for the Homeless, a bit of very cool bed/backpack engineering. <a href="http://www.keenwalk.com.au/homelessness/" rel="nofollow">http://www.keenwalk.com.au/homelessness/</a>
fnid2超过 15 年前
224.7 KM <a href="http://www.bing.com/maps/default.aspx?q=parliament+house+australia&#38;mkt=en-CA&#38;FORM=BYFD#JmNwPS0zNS45MjYzNTU1fjE0OC44NTE0NTQmbHZsPTgmc3R5PXImcnRwPXBvcy4tMzYuNDU2NDMyMDQ0NTA2MDdfMTQ4LjI2MTQ0NDE5NjEwNV9Nb3VudCUyMEtvc2NpdXNrbyUyQyUyMEF1c3RyYWxpYV9fX2VffnBvcy4tMzUuMzA4MjA3ODY5NTI5NzI0XzE0OS4xMjQ2NTIxNDcyOTMxX1BhcmxpYW1lbnQlMjBIb3VzZSUyQyUyMEF1c3RyYWxpYV9fX2VfJnJ0b3A9MH4wfjB+" rel="nofollow">http://www.bing.com/maps/default.aspx?q=parliament+house+aus...</a><p>That's a long walk for losing a bet.
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philk超过 15 年前
There's probably a good chance that house prices will continue to increase, simply because whoever is in government can't afford the the economy to tank in the short term.<p>I imagine these subsidies and handouts will continue until the government lacks the ability to positively influence house prices any further, at which point we'll have a much bigger crash.
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sailormoon超过 15 年前
So if someone who was considering buying a house in Sydney (well, an apartment) in the next year or so - because it seems prices just go up and up and up and up and they feel like it will just be completely unaffordable if they don't lock something in soon - what's the bottom line? Should they not buy until after this correction? Any informed HNers want to tell this hypothetical person what to do, since they're only just beginning to seriously start looking into it? ;)
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