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Test your “free will” at the Aaronson Oracle

271 点作者 ifelsehow将近 9 年前

82 条评论

iammer将近 9 年前
This sequence gives a score of 0:<p>f f f f f f d f f f f f f d d f f f f d f d f f f d f f d f f f f f f d d d f f f d d f d f f d d f f d f d d f f f f d f d f d f f f d f f d f f f f f f d d d d f f d d d f d f d d d f f f d d f d d f d f f d d f f d f d d f f f f d f d f d f f f d f f d f f f f f f d d d d d f d d d d f f d d d f d f d d d f f f d d f d d f d f f d d f f d f d d f f f f d f d f d f f f d f f d f f f f f f d d d d d d f d d d d f f d d d f d f d d d f f f d d f d d f d f f d d f f d f d d f f f f d f d f d f f f d f f d f f f f f f d d d d d d f d d d d f f d d d f d f d d d f f f d d f d d f d f f d d f f d f d d f f f f d f d f d f f f d f f d f f f f f f d d d d d d f d d d d f f d d d f d f d d d f f f d d f d d f d f f d d f f d f d d f f f f d f d f d f f f d f f d f f f f f f d d d d d d f d d d d f f d d d f d f d d d f f f d d f d d f d f f d d f f d f d d f f f f d f d f d f f f d f f d f f f f f f d d d d d d f d d d d f f d d d f d f d d d f f f d d f d d f d f f d d f f d f d d f f f f d
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Practicality将近 9 年前
I didn&#x27;t press anything because it was a free will test. The instructions tried to get me to press buttons and I refused. Free will established.
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coldtea将近 9 年前
Got it to <i>0.5991561181434598</i> after a while (totally random would be &quot;0.5&quot;).<p>Not sure how &quot;free will&quot; comes into play, if there was indeed free will, I could have freely decided to only press one, and the Oracle would have had close to 100% certainty.<p>Rather, what it measures is randomness or predictability, which is not the same thing as free will (especially &quot;after the fact&quot;, e.g. after the choice is made).
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DanielStraight将近 9 年前
You can use its own output against it. (Which means, ironically, it does not follow &quot;know thyself&quot;, a maxim said to be from the Oracle at Delphi.)<p>Fixate on a number fairly late in the sequence (the millionths place seems to work well). If that number is 5-9, push &#x27;f&#x27;. Otherwise, push &#x27;d&#x27;. Keeps it pretty consistently around 0.5.
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zzrg将近 9 年前
When I was little (and had too much free time) I memorized many digits of some transcendental numbers. The only (semi)practical use I&#x27;ve found for that knowledge, is that I can use it as a reasonably good pseudorandom stream. If for some reason I have to choose things pseudorandomly. Pick an arbitrary starting point in pi, and press &#x27;d&#x27; for even digits and &#x27;f&#x27; for odd digits, I get around 0.49 accuracy with this oracle.
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bumbledraven将近 9 年前
An idea I shared on &quot;Can you behave randomly? (1998)&quot; (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=11753194" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=11753194</a>) seems relevant here.<p>The keypresses I entered were not predictable by the Oracle. I generated the keypresses by first picking an arbitrary integer in [0,59]. I then (using simple mental arithmetic) used that integer to seed a PRNG by George Marsaglia [1] to generate a stream of pseudo-random decimal digits. For each digit, if it was in [0,7], then I took the 3-low order bits of its binary representation, in order from least significant to most significant bit (0=f, 1=d). If the digit was 8 or 9, I discarded it. The PRNG I used has period 59, and only 20% of the output digits would have to be discarded. Therefore one could use this approach to generate up to 141 pseudo-random bits.<p>[1] Marsaglia, George. &quot;How to generate random number sequences (in your head)&quot; <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;groups.google.com&#x2F;d&#x2F;msg&#x2F;sci.math&#x2F;6BIYd0cafQo&#x2F;Ucipn_5T_TMJ" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;groups.google.com&#x2F;d&#x2F;msg&#x2F;sci.math&#x2F;6BIYd0cafQo&#x2F;Ucipn_5...</a>)
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amasad将近 9 年前
At first I was stuck at ~0.95 but I was just striking the keys really fast but then I concentrated and looked at the keys and really tried to feel which key I wanted to press and it worked. I was able to score lower ~0.4. I&#x27;m computationally irreducible for now.
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lotharbot将近 9 年前
I was able to hang at around 0.5 by remembering something I&#x27;d read on HN about identifying non-random strings because they did too much alternating and not enough repeating.<p>Instead of trying to pick randomly between f and d, I picked numbers between 0 and 9, with an intentional bias toward lower numbers, and those would determine the length of the next sequence. So if I picked 4, 3, 7, 1, 3, 2, 2, 5, 0, 4 as my numbers, that would translate to<p>ddddfffdddddddfdddffddfffff[0=don&#x27;t change]ffff.<p>I suspect a more sophisticated program would be able to pick apart my strategy, but it worked really well against this particular algorithm.
Flimm将近 9 年前
It got to 1 immediately and stayed at 1 no matter what I did. Either this is a very impressive future predicting machine or there&#x27;s a bug.<p>.... Turns out it was because I was pressing the wrong buttons on my Dvorak layout keyboard!
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smoyer将近 9 年前
I counted up from 0 in binary (excluding leading zeroes) and even with a completely predictable series, it only did slightly better than 50%. I was expecting more (that on-line game of 20 questions was freaky good).
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colanderman将近 9 年前
I got it down to 0.51-something by simply switching keys iff the measure increased. Ironic, since I was exhibiting no &quot;free will&quot; by following that rule :)
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teaman2000将近 9 年前
Well, it&#x27;s less about your &#x27;free will&#x27; and more about one&#x27;s inability to generate a random number.<p>I&#x27;m not going to take the time to test it, but if you flipped a coin before each key press, this algorithm would eventually get to 50% accuracy. But in the short term it would probably be &lt;50%, because it assumes it won&#x27;t actually get random input.
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jff将近 9 年前
<p><pre><code> dd if=&#x2F;dev&#x2F;urandom count=1024 bs=1 | xxd -b </code></pre> Then I hit &quot;d&quot; for 1, &quot;f&quot; for 0 as I read through the bytes of output. It stuck around 0.5 the whole way, which is what I expected.
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ernesto95将近 9 年前
I wrote a timer in the developers console that logged either f or d depending on whether Math.random() was above or below 0.5 every second, typing the sequence that was being logged, the oracle consistently scored around ~0.4.
grondilu将近 9 年前
Being predictable does not mean you have no free will.<p>I mean, ever heard of <i>compatibilism</i>?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Compatibilism" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Compatibilism</a>
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zkhalique将近 9 年前
&quot;Press the &#x27;f&#x27; and &#x27;d&#x27; keys randomly. As randomly as you can. I&#x27;ll try to predict which key you&#x27;ll press next. 0.4893617021276598 A rolling mean of my accuracy in predicting what key you&#x27;ll press.&quot;<p>So does that mean it&#x27;s not able to predict with more than 50% accuracy?
carapace将近 9 年前
Um. This is a scientific &quot;psychic-o-meter&quot;.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Chaitin&#x27;s_constant" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Chaitin&#x27;s_constant</a>
kurttheviking将近 9 年前
0.49 -- for me it helped to close my eyes and picture a random bit stream (0=d, 1=f) rather than try to force my hands to &quot;act randomly&quot;
MarkPNeyer将近 9 年前
What happens if i open the source code for this, run it in node, get the probability of guessing f or d, and then guess the one that&#x27;s lower?<p>This is like showing someone an elaborate mirror, and saying, &quot;See? My copy of you does exactly what you&#x27;re doing to do! You don&#x27;t have free will!&quot;<p>All you have to do is put another mirror in the middle and show them that it doesn&#x27;t work as they claim.
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JoshTriplett将近 9 年前
I had a professor who, when playing games where the best move was to choose randomly (for instance, in a CCG, forcing the opponent to discard a card from their hand that you designate without seeing their hand), would always roll a die or otherwise mechanically randomize their choice, to ensure that they never exhibited potentially exploitable patterns in selection.
cgag将近 9 年前
I&#x27;ve been relaying the quote from the readme for years. If you didn&#x27;t click through:<p>&quot;In a class I taught at Berkeley, I did an experiment where I wrote a simple little program that would let people type either “f” or “d” and would predict which key they were going to push next. It’s actually very easy to write a program that will make the right prediction about 70% of the time. Most people don’t really know how to type randomly. They’ll have too many alternations and so on. There will be all sorts of patterns, so you just have to build some sort of probabilistic model. Even a very crude one will do well. I couldn’t even beat my own program, knowing exactly how it worked. I challenged people to try this and the program was getting between 70% and 80% prediction rates. Then, we found one student that the program predicted exactly 50% of the time. We asked him what his secret was and he responded that he “just used his free will.”
timelincoln将近 9 年前
I find this way more entertaining than I should
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talles将近 9 年前
What this have to do with free will? It&#x27;s a web page trying to infer the logic behind the user keystrokes. That&#x27;s it.<p>Maybe there&#x27;s some randomness lying deep down in what we experience as free will, but that doesn&#x27;t mean that we&#x27;re 100% unpredictable in everything we do.
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clock_tower将近 9 年前
This is pressing two letters, and you&#x27;re explicitly told to press them in a way which feels random (which is going to be culturally determined). Aristotle would say that this is about habit, not free will -- unless you&#x27;re opting to ignore the instructions.
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metaxy2将近 9 年前
Seems to me there&#x27;s two ways of doing this:<p>1. Totally clear your mind of the previous letter and make each letter a separate decision. That way you only have to avoid being biased toward using one letter or the other too much. This is probably pretty hard.<p>2. Allow yourself to be aware of your previous answers, but thwart your own biases by including patterns that cancel them out.<p>I went with the second option and consistently got between .45 and .55. I know our main bias around randomness is not realizing how many runs and patterns exist in truly random data. So I occasionally included runs like &quot;fff&quot; and &quot;dddd&quot; and, rarely, patterns like &quot;dfdf&quot; and &quot;fdfd.&quot;
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rwallace将近 9 年前
I failed to exercise free will in this case.<p>Free will is in play as and to the extent that my future is determined by my decisions, rather than by other factors beyond my control. For example, if I&#x27;m walking down the street, I have free will in the matter of whether I go North or South, but not in the matter of whether I go up or down.<p>I tried typing some letters because I was curious to see what the output would be. But for some reason, the page didn&#x27;t work on my browser; no output was produced. Thus, my attempt to exercise free will was foiled.
zepto将近 9 年前
No explanation given of how this has anything to do with free will.
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Netcob将近 9 年前
When I get to look at the average I can keep it under 0.5 if I change the key every time the number goes up (and I keep pressing the same key if that strategy stops working).<p>As arguments against free will go... I think people with no short-term memory make a pretty solid case. You&#x27;d think with all the complex activity in our brains we&#x27;d at least behave a little randomly based on some chaotic processes, but without your short-term memory you begin to sound like a broken record.
mkagenius将近 9 年前
I am stuck at around 0.76.<p>I think its flawed - Whatever I press it never changes by more than 1%<p>How can the prediction for &#x27;f&#x27; be 0.764 and for &#x27;d&#x27; be 0.763 - they don&#x27;t add up to 1.
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tehrei将近 9 年前
It&#x27;s pretty good, got me at 0.76. It seems you can switch patterns to make it go down, but if you just mash f and d it rises pretty quickly.
lucraft将近 9 年前
It&#x27;s not very good, it&#x27;s hovering around 0.5, which I think means it&#x27;s guessing about as well as chance?<p>Also it&#x27;s broken in Safari.
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cygnus_a将近 9 年前
It&#x27;s simple to get it down to 50%. Don&#x27;t try to be random. Watch the whites, and beat them with reds, game theory style.
firasd将近 9 年前
For a sense of urgency, imagine you&#x27;re Manny Pacquiao and trying to hit Floyd Mayweather without resorting to this predictable series of left-right punches <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=fZklifGarQc" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=fZklifGarQc</a>
scottlocklin将近 9 年前
Strictly speaking, this is a Shannon Oracle: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;programmers.stackexchange.com&#x2F;questions&#x2F;245008&#x2F;why-did-shannons-outguessing-machine-beat-hagelbargers" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;programmers.stackexchange.com&#x2F;questions&#x2F;245008&#x2F;why-di...</a>
mattfredfry将近 9 年前
I chose not to press either button. The ultimate act of free will! (Just kidding, I got stuck around 0.63)
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willfire1993将近 9 年前
<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;imgur.com&#x2F;qREH4Jh" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;imgur.com&#x2F;qREH4Jh</a> I guess I&#x27;m pretty random. I don&#x27;t know what using your free will has anything to do with this. In fact, this may be the opposite of free will.
mangeletti将近 9 年前
0.5072463768115938[1] but only did it for about 2 minutes (don&#x27;t want to ruin my keyboard). That seems basically like it&#x27;s unable to predict.<p>1. <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;cl.ly&#x2F;2c1R1X0z262i" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;cl.ly&#x2F;2c1R1X0z262i</a>
willfire1993将近 9 年前
<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;imgur.com&#x2F;qREH4Jh" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;imgur.com&#x2F;qREH4Jh</a> I guess I&#x27;m pretty random. I don&#x27;t think this has anything to do with free will, in fact, I think this is the opposite.
lomnakkus将近 9 年前
I realize that this is just a lark, but I just want to state for the record (as it were) that &quot;free will&quot; is such an ill-defined concept that <i>any</i> result from this is wrong <i>and</i> right at the same time. So there.
gopher2将近 9 年前
Pressing in between the keys so I randomly hit both of them was the only way I could be unpredictable. That got a 4.9. Pressing back and forth trying to act as &quot;random&quot; as I could I stayed around a 7.8. Cool experiment
arielweisberg将近 9 年前
Seems odd to call it free will. If you were 100% deterministic then sure you have no free will, but predictable, even very predictable is not the same as having no free will.<p>Has anyone done a control test with an RNG to see what happens?
cfallin将近 9 年前
This is just a branch predictor!<p>It would be interesting to play with more modern branch prediction algorithms (e.g., Andre Seznec&#x27;s recent work) with the same interactive interface. I haven&#x27;t seen anyone do this before...
moultano将近 9 年前
I started reading &quot;Quantum Computing since Democritus&quot; recently, the book that inspired this, and it is fantastic. Highly recommended if you like an entertaining walkthrough of some pretty heavy theory.
emmelaich将近 9 年前
See also<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;science&#x2F;rock-paper-scissors.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;science&#x2F;rock-paper-scisso...</a>
Houshalter将近 9 年前
Also see this version: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.loper-os.org&#x2F;bad-at-entropy&#x2F;manmach.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.loper-os.org&#x2F;bad-at-entropy&#x2F;manmach.html</a>
learc83将近 9 年前
I didn&#x27;t have a coin on my so I started tossing my keys on the floor and picking a letter based on the direction of the largest key. Ended up predictably around 0.5
fao_将近 9 年前
I got mine up to 0.8~ and decided to spend some time trying to out-predict the machine and get my score lower. I got it down to 0.6 before it got really difficult
ars将近 9 年前
I got 0.62 I guess that means I&#x27;m not perfectly random.
ianopolous将近 9 年前
The following strategy seems to result in consistently 50% or less, typically ~45%: If it got the previous guess correct, swap the key, otherwise keep the same.
zellyn将近 9 年前
It didn&#x27;t show anything until I pressed a bunch of keys. Then it came up at 0.3-ish. Then climbed to just around 0.5. I guess I&#x27;m fairly random.
eli_gottlieb将近 9 年前
I keep hitting both keys at the same time (from my point of view), but apparently I&#x27;m 80% predictable.<p>What, does the IRQ for &#x27;F&#x27; fire first or something?
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Animats将近 9 年前
I get 0.50877 after a while. What&#x27;s the big deal?
zekevermillion将近 9 年前
We are rational beings, shouldn&#x27;t we expect to have trouble being random? But wait, does that mean I don&#x27;t have free will?! Aargh!
dicroce将近 9 年前
0.52. The whole time I was trying to disconnect control of my fingers from my brain... Trying to get my hand to just do what it wants.
dsr_将近 9 年前
0.375 -- I guess I&#x27;m not perfectly random.
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ElijahLynn将近 9 年前
Can&#x27;t help but compare this to the American elections, 2 choices, republican or democrat.<p>This algorithm should work on that as well... :(
jjoe将近 9 年前
If you&#x27;re left handed, use your right hand. And vice versa. I scored around &lt;= 0.3 consistently.
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rdiddly将近 9 年前
I have pi memorized to a fair number of digits, so I decided to try that.<p>d 3 times f 1 time d 4 times etc.<p>... and got 50% almost exactly.
stcredzero将近 9 年前
Can this be used for game AI? I think it could. I wonder if people could apply this to games like Tennis? Or maybe to approaches to the basket in Basketball?<p>I am using KeePass 1.31&#x27;s Random Password generator with minus and underline. The oracle is getting 59%. Hmm. Also, when I generate a 64 character string with two possible characters, KeePass claims I have 72 bits of entropy. Hmmm!
tangled_zans将近 9 年前
I What would it mean, statistically, if it&#x27;s getting it right less than 50% of the time?
jobigoud将近 9 年前
It says &quot;My last guesses (most recent at bottom):&quot;<p>But the most recent guess is at the top.
lisper将近 9 年前
Man, that&#x27;s an awful lot of code to do something so conceptually simple.
betenoire将近 9 年前
displaying the accuracy changes my behavior. I&#x27;d like it to log the prediction, result, and accuracy, and after a set number of configurable presses, it displays the report summary.
x86pgmer将近 9 年前
I tried pressing l and q repeatedly, I liked those letters better....
gravypod将近 9 年前
I&#x27;m at 54%, does that mean I can get a job at google as a PRNG?
recursive将近 9 年前
I freely choose to be predictable. Randomness is not free will.
tener将近 9 年前
Wish there was a mobile version. Can&#x27;t play it on my phone.
avip将近 9 年前
Got the dude down to 0.4 by invoking pi. Pretty good predictor!
andrewprock将近 9 年前
I got it to .41 predictability. Does that mean I am a demigod?
Tomte将近 9 年前
Got to 0.5000000000000001 and decided to stop there. :-)
vox_mollis将近 9 年前
Fairly consistently between .50 and .55 here.
camiller将近 9 年前
0.47058823529411764 is the first number to appear, kept it in the .5 to .57 range for the next 50 or so presses ... got board.
cabron11将近 9 年前
fddffdddfffddfdffddfdfddffdfdfddfdfdfddffdfdfdfddfffddffddddffdfd
return0将近 9 年前
that&#x27;s it. i have no free will.
cabron11将近 9 年前
ffddfdfdddffddffddfffdddffdd
haddr将近 9 年前
for me it&#x27;s below 0.5
pmyjavec将近 9 年前
next...
BucketSort将近 9 年前
So. I have done a similar thing for a while now. I call it adversarial selection. I ask a participant(p) to guess a number [1,10] repeatedly. After they guess a number, I immediately tell them my guess of their selected number. Immediately after I guess they are instructed to make a new guess and tap the table indicating they have picked a number. The point is to go through these generations very fast.<p>Often what I&#x27;ll observe is they try to mimic a random distribution by selecting a number far away from their last selection, but sometimes they somehow catch on and start saying things like the same number (rare) or a number close to it. This gets interesting because they usually start cycling between picking a number far away and close, but they do so with a particular pattern. I&#x27;m able to guess their numbers well beyond a random distribution, and it all comes down the the idea that they are trying to make a random number or trick me, which produces a blueprint of behavior.
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hmm0a7fa8b60683将近 9 年前
0.38 <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;edu115W.png" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;i.imgur.com&#x2F;edu115W.png</a>
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vacri将近 9 年前
33% after it started responding and I got bored after 20 or so more attempts. I imagine it&#x27;d train up higher over time.<p>But I have to agree with the posters who say that free will and predictability are not the same thing.
sickbeard将近 9 年前
It says it will predict which key I will press next but it doesn&#x27;t say which key it&#x27;s predicting. is it f or d?
emblem21将近 9 年前
It guesses what key you&#x27;ll hit next. It has a naive assumption of when I will hit it next. (Eventually)
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