Prediction markets have consistently proven to be one of the best ways of predicting the future (per tfa). For them to be most effective however, they need scale (many participants) and real material value at stake (money). Unfortunately, the underlying mechanism that makes them work is gambling, and most societies have rules to control and limit that. As a result few prediction markets have been able to form and remain in operation. This costs the world quite a bit, because the emergent value they create - the most accurate knowledge of the future - is applicable to so many people beyond those doing the gambling.<p>Imagine a big corporation studying the feasibility of a large capital outlay for some factory in a semi-stable country. It would be very valuable for them to know the probability of a government coup, the odds of a natural disaster, and various other hard to estimate metrics before they spend their X billion dollars. If there was a highly liquid and active global prediction market, they could look up the current odds of any event that interests them, and factor it into their feasibility, without ever having to gamble.<p>Additionally organizations can better protect their businesses by using these markets to hedge against events that aren't covered in the few positions available on financial markets.<p>I could go on and on with valuable use-cases that go far above the gambling.<p>I'm the lead UI engineer at Augur, a decentralized blockchain-based prediction market, and we're attempting to solve this. I really hope we do, the world would be a better place.