I think the key factor to look at in terms of economics is this:<p>How much cheaper is it to distribute something as a web app?<p>With ever more pervasive internet, for a lot of desktop applications, the answer is "a lot cheaper". For mobile phones, it's probably not <i>that</i> much cheaper for people, given that they pay for data. If you try and handle several platforms (S40, S60, Android, iPhone), it is probably cheaper for companies though, so that's a point in favor of the web. Interesting stuff...