I'm a novelist and I just completed the first draft of a fictional story about robots.<p>I was wondering: how long do you think it will take for human-realistic robots to become available on the market?
For what purpose? I consider human like robots a publicity stunt that will never catch on. (sex is probably the exception that proves my rule). I don't have any interest in a human like robot. Robots need to serve a purpose.<p>I want a robot to do my laundry, vacuum (current offerings leave much to be desired), dishes - in short a domestic servant. I can branch out to yard work, driving... Human realistic isn't of interest, I want the jobs done, and that is where the market it.<p>I can see pets catching on - but even bipedal pets have significant differences from human like. Passing the truing test is a negative - I want to feel superior to my pets.<p>Of course your story is about available on the market. That is different from a market success. I can see them in 20-40 years, but just like the pet rock they are a fad that comes and then ends up in the dump.<p>The above is points to ponder. You are writing fiction. You can reject any as you see fit. If you think I'm wrong about anything you need to consider if your readers will fail to suspend disbelief if you don't explain why I'm wrong. Or maybe I'm right and that lack of demand can be spun to fill the plot hole of why the robots take over. There are endless possibilities. Your universe, your choices: good luck.
There are quite a few interpretations of what human-realistic means, but here are my <i>very</i> optimistic, noisy estimates. I'm interested what numbers others come up with.<p>* Proyas' "I, Robot": 15 years (no evil uprising)<p>* Spike Jone's "Her": 20 years, but no trans-human A.Is<p>* Sex robots that feel like "the real thing": 20 years<p>* Bicentennial Man: 30 years<p>* Spielberg's "Artificial Intelligence" (2001) - 30 years.