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SpaceX is using Boeing's 1920s strategy to get to Mars

12 点作者 mike2477将近 9 年前

1 comment

vannevar将近 9 年前
This might be a good analogy, if you substitute decades of Space-X time for years of Boeing time. Neither Space-X nor any other launch company has yet proved that it can fly passengers even to Low Earth Orbit with anything like the reliability needed for routine travel. A roughly 1-in-100 chance of dying per trip is much, much too high. Space-X has launched 16 times in the past two years. To demonstrate reasonable reliability, they're going to need to launch ~300 times without losing the vehicle or payload. Even at double the current launch rate, that won't happen until the 2030s.
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