TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

The Tech Bubble Didn’t Burst This Year

141 点作者 bilifuduo超过 8 年前

15 条评论

Animats超过 8 年前
Who&#x27;s big and a steady money-loser? Twitter? Uber? Who else?<p>Investors may demand liquidation before money-losing companies with cash run through all their capital. Stockholders have the power to force that, unless there&#x27;s some two-tier stock deal such as Google and Facebook have, but Twitter does not.<p>What&#x27;s the next big thing?<p>- Self-driving cars that actually work are about three years from commercial deployment. What businesses will be created around that? Automated parking garages? Car-sharing? LIDAR manufacturing?<p>- In a few months, the Chevy Bolt will be shipping. More charging stations will be needed. Over the next decade, a need for a huge number of charging points will appear. Somebody has to build those.<p>- Surveillance cameras, including car dashcams, coupled to face recognition and AI. Big Brother where something is always watching. But who? Google? Samsung? ADT? G4S? NSA?<p>- The blue-sky possibility: Lockheed-Martin&#x27;s Skunk Works succeeds in building a usable fusion reactor. They&#x27;re not saying much other than that they&#x27;ve made enough progress to justify investing more of their own funds. The Skunk Works has a good track record of doing things others thought impossible. (The U-2, the SR-71, the F-117, the F-22, and probably some things that haven&#x27;t been made public yet.) If that works, the world changes in a big way.<p>Probably not the next big thing:<p>- Virtual reality. There&#x27;s still no killer app, and we&#x27;re into the holiday shopping season. The hardware problem has been solved, and nobody cares. It&#x27;s the new 3D TV.<p>- 3D printing. There are lots of good 3D printers, and they&#x27;re bought by the same people who buy milling machines. They&#x27;re a useful industrial tool. But home printing? Not happening.<p>- Internet of Things. It&#x27;s mostly gimmicks so far. IP-addressable lightbulbs just aren&#x27;t that useful. There&#x27;s going to be a lot of crap manufactured, but it may just be a fad like hoverboards and CB radio.<p>- Hydrogen-powered cars. This is Toyota&#x27;s answer to electric cars, and they&#x27;re on sale now in California. They&#x27;ve sold about 700 of them in the US so far.
评论 #12759496 未加载
评论 #12760667 未加载
评论 #12759509 未加载
评论 #12758900 未加载
评论 #12760078 未加载
评论 #12758919 未加载
评论 #12759297 未加载
评论 #12762113 未加载
评论 #12759999 未加载
评论 #12759333 未加载
评论 #12759506 未加载
评论 #12760956 未加载
评论 #12760937 未加载
评论 #12761123 未加载
评论 #12760825 未加载
评论 #12758941 未加载
评论 #12759519 未加载
评论 #12759628 未加载
评论 #12759299 未加载
评论 #12759488 未加载
AndrewKemendo超过 8 年前
To me the real scandal here is that while funding of startups is down, Venture firm funding is up and cash in the bank is the highest since 2000 [1]. So that means - like corporations currently - these funds are just sitting on cash [2].<p>I&#x27;m curious why LP&#x27;s aren&#x27;t up in arms (maybe they are privately), but my guess is that the answer venture funds give their LP&#x27;s are that they are being prudent so that they are protected from the impending &quot;crash&quot; and can start investing when prices are lower.<p>What seems to be happening as a result is that venture funds are starting to invest more like Banks - looking for more traditional metrics like ARR that can protect them on the downside with the caveat that they still expect power law distribution of returns.<p>So basically they want to invest in potentially billion dollar companies that are cash flow positive from the start. IMO this is trying to have it all, and discourages moonshot bets that are capital intensive before finding their market.<p>It&#x27;s a judgment call whether this is &quot;good&quot; or not, but it seems to me to counter the original goal of venture.<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wsj.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;funds-flow-to-venture-firms-1459295426" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wsj.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;funds-flow-to-venture-firms-1459...</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2016-03-09&#x2F;more-venture-investors-are-sitting-on-the-sidelines" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2016-03-09&#x2F;more-vent...</a>
评论 #12758560 未加载
评论 #12759004 未加载
评论 #12758716 未加载
评论 #12760822 未加载
pault超过 8 年前
&gt; Uber, valued at about $69 billion, is the most valuable American car company by some margin, worth more than General Motors and Fiat Chrysler combined.<p>Can someone explain this to me? What competitive edge does Uber have that would stop literally any well-funded company from entering their market as a competitor? I know they have pervasive brand awareness and a large driver network but does that really justify a $69B valuation? What&#x27;s to stop consumers and drivers from jumping ship en masse?
评论 #12758729 未加载
评论 #12758955 未加载
评论 #12758723 未加载
评论 #12760346 未加载
评论 #12759679 未加载
评论 #12759949 未加载
评论 #12758877 未加载
pfarnsworth超过 8 年前
I used to think there was going to be a crash, but not anymore. We have just experienced a controlled deflation, probably the first time at least in my lifetime. Most&#x2F;many tech companies got deflated but somehow we avoided a massive crash this time and sensibilities have increased without mass chaos.
评论 #12760807 未加载
评论 #12759772 未加载
评论 #12761077 未加载
firasd超过 8 年前
Good article.<p>It&#x27;s true that tech in general may be facing challenges because smartphones are not new anymore, but I was especially annoyed at the On-Demand bubble from last year, which felt to me like a &quot;fake startup&quot; trend. Saying the total addressable market of food is in the trillions so you&#x27;re gonna make a food delivery app and give away a dollar for 80 cents just felt to me like, is this really a &#x27;tech&#x27; business? There are no margins.
评论 #12758971 未加载
apsec112超过 8 年前
Hmmmm... tech is in a bubble, where have we heard this before...<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.samaltman.com&#x2F;were-in-a-bubble" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.samaltman.com&#x2F;were-in-a-bubble</a><p>Other than the company names, has anything really changed since the Richter Scales put out &quot;Here Comes Another Bubble&quot; in 2007? &quot;Make yourself a million bucks, partly skill, mostly luck: now you can afford a down payment on a small house.&quot;
评论 #12761509 未加载
allenleein超过 8 年前
For anyone who wants to dig more about tech bubbles:<p>Silicon Valley — The Wall Street Without Bubble<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;startup-blink&#x2F;silicon-valley-the-wall-street-without-bubble-c5bc68135df#.5fpccngr2" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;startup-blink&#x2F;silicon-valley-the-wall-str...</a>
rapsey超过 8 年前
Yes there is a bubble. But it&#x27;s in bonds. Once that bursts everything will hurt.
评论 #12760312 未加载
bedhead超过 8 年前
Uber&#x27;s valuation in particular worries me. Uber&#x27;s product is 90 pixels on your phone - that&#x27;s it. Behind that is computer code and an admittedly powerful network effect among drivers and riders. But I have to wonder about that power of that network effect over time, especially with this race to develop self-driving cars and other similar things. Meanwhile, Uber&#x27;s business practices are, shall we say, often times questionable. Customers increasingly dislike the product, whether it&#x27;s surge pricing, or dirty cars, or lousy drivers.<p>I just get nervous by these companies whose products are a single app on your phone and some computer code. This is generally not a great setup for being worth a lot of money 20 years from now.
评论 #12760262 未加载
tracker1超过 8 年前
Investing unwisely doesn&#x27;t mean it&#x27;s all going to come crashing down. There are a lot of companies being much more responsible right now. There are more companies than ever not going deep into VC over-reaching evaluations, that are cash positive. I do think there will be some fallout. I think the same is trending in real estate again too in a lot of markets.<p>Economies are cyclical, and any time you see double digit growth in any market for over half a decade, there&#x27;s usually a dip at the end... how big depends on how over-inflated that market is.
ry4n413超过 8 年前
Look, as the probably only credible person here to speak on Stock Valuations. Tech is not, nor is any other specific Industry or Sector the issue here. The issue here is interests rate.
yalogin超过 8 年前
If we are really expecting a downturn what will happen to the self driving car cycle that is barely beginning now? These companies need much more funding than software startups.
mrcactu5超过 8 年前
I get the sense startups were more optimistic in previous years. Emphasis these days is more about making money.<p>Perhaps I could be talking to the wrong people.
DannyB2超过 8 年前
Hey, the year isn&#x27;t over yet.
jerianasmith超过 8 年前
Right there is bubble.