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Tuesday Shouldn't Change the Narrative

2 点作者 bdr超过 8 年前

1 comment

internaut超过 8 年前
I think this is only true if the election results are both fair (irrelevant levels of cheating or human error) and close.<p>Should Trump win by a significant margin e.g. &gt; 4%, that <i>should</i> cause you to ask whether systemic bias exists in polling. I think most of us in Europe concluded something like this when Brexit occurred. Some people were claiming the polling was accurate but the reporting was inaccurate, however when I doubled checked the polling I could see no discrepancy. Most of that weeks polls were very wrong and so were the bookmakers, the people with strong incentives to discern truth from bullshit.<p>Take a look:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Standard_polling_on_EU_membership" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Opinion_polling_for_the_United...</a><p>It is really remarkable. Internet polls are accurate?!! Who knew! Depending on your reasons for believing in a significant prejudice in polling, that could indeed change the narrative.