Report: The iPad won’t go mass market anytime soon

I recently went to work at a local cafe for a few hours over the weekend. It's a cafe that is well situated for people to grab coffee and a snack, and then sit down to get some work done.<p>What was striking to me was that I saw no fewer than three people pop open their iPads and work for a few hours. And I'm not in the Valley.<p>To add to this, on my last business flight last week, I noticed two middle-aged businesspeople with their iPads in their laps while I walked down the aisle.<p>I don't know what definition of "mass market" the researchers are using, but when you see multiple people casually use the same device in a random coffee shop, and random businesspeople on a flight popping open the same device, it's tough to argue it's not getting widespread adoption.<p>The market may have proven this report wrong before the proverbial ink was dry.

Unfortunately, sales receipts and investment firms don't share your reticence. What is mass market anyways? is it 1 million? 100 million? 1 billion sold? If the mass market was just techbloggers you might be right, but now they are looking like the new Cmdr Taco iPod review.<p>The mass market are people like my family and friends who don't know what it does but know they have to have one. I don't need one and I plan on getting one. Just waiting for v2, Apple has a history of v1 bugs I'd rather avoid.<p>If anything, Apple has already established the long tail. They've got apps and add-ons. It's hard to find an alarm clock without an iPod dock these days. j/k

&#62; “everything it does I can do on my PC or my phone right now.”<p>Right. But when your PC gets a virus/hardware-failure or your phone keypad is too small to type up a paper, what would you buy? Maybe not this current version of iPad but eventually the only computer my parents will use/buy will be an iPad or a very similar device. It will be something that works like iPad Wifi (3G not required), will connect to cameras, printers, and have live video chat features.<p>If it runs Farmville, it addresses every single use-case for my parents. And since it will be easy enough to move around the house, they will love it. I bought them an iPad Wifi for now but hopefully will get them the iPad + USB + Camera device sometime in the near future.

I wasn't going to buy an iPad either. I'm a gadget geek, so I had all the same feelings about the iPad that are outlined in the article. "It's just a big iPhone," I thought. And I already had an iPhone, so why bother? Then release date went by and I was sitting around using my tiny iPhone when I finally realized: it sure would be cool if this thing had a bigger screen.<p>I went out and picked up an iPad, and I'm glad I did. People are wrong when they say "it doesn't do anything my PC won't do right now." Your PC doesn't fit in your hand. I owned a netbook for a short time as well. It's light, it's small, and in a lot of ways it's similar to the iPad, but it still follows the laptop format. By consequence, it's most comfortable on your lap. When I hold my iPad I hold it at right at my sternum; just like you would a book. When I used a netbook I'd try resting in the same location, but netbooks get pretty warm, and it quickly becomes uncomfortable. The laptop form factor just isn't built for casual consumption. They're built for a desk.<p>I agree with the assessment that the iPad won't go "mass market" any time soon, but Apple has a long history of not caring about "mainstream". They only care about making a good margin on a reasonable number of units. Mission accomplished.<p>I'm hoping that more companies will roll out touch-based devices in a tablet form factor. All Apple-fanboy-ism aside, I think the form-factor is incredible exciting for personal computing. I'm finally untethered from my desk, and most importantly, REALLY comfortable when using a computer in my comfy chair. Unlike Apple, I'm not principally opposed to Flash. I'm principally opposed to sacrificing good battery life, heat, and performance to Flash, but I think the recent spat with Apple has lit a fire under Adobe. I won't hesitate to jump ship when a better touch-tablet comes along.

I had to order one online because all 4 Apple stores in Manhattan, and the closest store in NJ, are sold out. I originally thought they would only sell 5 million in the first twelve months. Now I'm guessing 12-15 million. Let's see what happens once you international units ship. 50 million units in 3 years? Mass market? I guess it's hard to be held accountable if they don't define exactly what they mean.

&#62; It occupies too much territory already covered by &#62; smartphones, PCs, laptops and traditional media.<p>For me, the question isn't whether it covers territory already covered by existing electronic devices like netbooks or what have you, but whether it covers a significant amount of the territory covered by _paper_. Can it substitute my A4 notebook, or my diary, that's what I want to know. It won't be the same, but will it be as good or better, all told?<p>As a substitute for a PC, netbook or smartphone, it's compromised in important, possibly fundamental ways. I don't know if it is similarly compromised as a paper substitute. If not, mass market acceptance awaits.

Interesting how the TechCrunch article cites the "qualitative research" of simpsoncarpenter.com -- whose site my grandmother would <i>never</i> navigate to find whatever article Mr. Carpenter wrote about the iPad. I guess he knows about what "won't go mass market anytime soon" from his own example.<p>For HNers purposes, <i>quantitative</i> research might be more significant. Me, for example. I don't care whether an iPad has no place in <i>my</i> work/personal life.<p>I <i>do</i> care whether enough (quantitatively) people are purchasing/using iPads to influence my business decisions about how I target my app development work. (I know, I'm a mercenary SOB, right?)

As an owner, I can say that it's only substantial drawback for me, is the inability to access or manipulate shares of any kind. Seeing the world through the iTunes keyhole is infuriating.<p>I have several hundred gb of media on AFP and cifs shares, and I hate that I have to drag out the lappy to move them around, or even view them. On the upside, lacking cell juice makes cracking the iPad much more attractive than the iPhone.

These are the same flawed reasons the iPad wasn't going to be a huge hit in the US and we've seen how well those predictions worked out.

People can make theoretical arguments all day long, but nearly every person that's seen my iPad has been interested in it, hesitantly asked if they could pick it up, then stood there and played with it for as long as they could, usually just saying "wow". Often punctuated with "I'm gonna buy one of these."<p>If Apple can continue to get these things into the hands of ordinary people (and from reports about how many people are playing with them at their retail stores, they're accomplishing that), they'll continue to sell amazingly well. I've <i>never</i> seen a product sell itself as easily as iPad does, including the original iPod and iPhone.

The iPod isn't trying to go mass-market by exposing a focus group for a short time. It's trying to go mass-market by exposing a minority of vocal earlyvangelists and having <i>them</i> show people why it's useful.<p>So far it's working really, really well. The question is just whether they can keep it up -- if the use cases continue to be interesting and compelling to, say, 10% of the population rather than just 1% of it.<p>Still too early to tell.

I believe one of the most important ways for this to fit into people's lives is by seeing others (especially non-tech people) using it. So yeah, it'll take a while. I get the same kind of feeling as when the white headphones were starting to appear, though.

I think I'd fall into the impulsive group, have a desktop/ laptop/ netbook/ decentish phone but still could see myself buying the ipad if I had a bit more money currently.

Here is a clue: TechCrunch is a technology reporting tabloid. This article is click bait. Prognostication at this level is no better than picking lint from your navel.

This reminds me of the initial opinion of the telephone 100+ years ago: nice toy, but it has no practical business purpose.