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Ask HN: Will capitalism survive the robot revolution?

44 点作者 chamoda超过 8 年前

17 条评论

jacknews超过 8 年前
I think people often confuse capitalism, and competitive free markets.<p>The later certainly have their place, driving efficiency and innovation, even if it&#x27;s only between the robots, although they do require regulation and even intervention to keep them dynamic.<p>The former (individual ownership of the means of production, be it machinery, IP or branding, and therefore the profits generated by other people&#x27;s labor) is already an anachronism IMHO. Only a single step up from feudalism, except instead of strict heredity etc, in theory anyone with the resources can do the equivalent of build a castle, raise an army, and own serfs.<p>It&#x27;s demise wouldn&#x27;t need to wait for the arrival of robots, in a fairer world.
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chmike超过 8 年前
I believe that capitalism is doomed. The sooner the better for humanity because capitalism is more dangerous than communism.<p>The best way to expose the problem of capitalism is with this joke &quot;Give a man a fish, and he will eat for one day. Learn him to fish, and you destroy a market.&quot; Capitalism is also leading people to harm (health) and exploit other people.<p>Communism was clearly a false good idea. Liberalism and capitalism (with competition) clearly provide a motivationnal power for which owe most of the health, technical and scientifical progress.<p>However, it also come with its perversion like the war, junk food and entertainment business and human exploitation as producer or consumer.<p>Humanity is going through a continuous evolution process and capitalism is one stage of it. New models will emerge fixing the problems of previous models and preserving their good properties.<p>It&#x27;s a long time that I think about this and try to find what could be the next evolution step.<p>My conclusion is that the working model used in science and more recently with open source could be a good candidate because it provides exponential growth which beats capitalism. Some kind of high level control will be needed so that humanity doesn&#x27;t shoot itself in the foot as would happen soon or later with pure liberalism and capitalism. It already exist today but it is currently frequently corrupted by greeediness of capitalists.<p>The robot revolution will not suppress all human work. So I don&#x27;t think that it might affect capitalism that much. I believe that it would make trade business more prevalent.
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abecedarius超过 8 年前
Suppose we get to robots doing almost all the productive work, with humans living on basic income. Would markets still direct the work? I think so. <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;e-drexler.com&#x2F;d&#x2F;09&#x2F;00&#x2F;AgoricsPapers&#x2F;agoricpapers.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;e-drexler.com&#x2F;d&#x2F;09&#x2F;00&#x2F;AgoricsPapers&#x2F;agoricpapers.html</a> explores the idea of an economy of programs that needs to face the economic calculation problem just as much as an economy of people does. It&#x27;s relatively little-known early work in the lineage of smart contracts and Bittorrent.<p>Perhaps your best bet to survive the robot apocalypse is to accumulate some savings so that you&#x27;re one of the capitalists by the time competitive wages fall below the human subsistence level. Robin Hanson discusses this in <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;ageofem.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;ageofem.com&#x2F;</a>
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haser_au超过 8 年前
Very good question.<p>If we presume the cost of good drops to near zero if robots are creating everything, and maintaining themselves, then there will be a race to the bottom for cost. For example, if a T-shirt costs US$0.001 to make (including raw materials), then anything above that is pure profit for the seller. Suddenly people need less money to buy things that were very expensive.<p>I think you need to look at the portion of cost that is associated with labour and defects, and assume this will be the cost of the good until raw materials are reduced in cost as well.<p>Personally, no. I don&#x27;t think capitalism in it current form can survive robot revolution.
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adventured超过 8 年前
There isn&#x27;t going to be a robot revolution.<p>There&#x27;s going to be a gradual, century long process of integration between humans and robotics, which will radically improve productivity while population growth turns steeply negative across most of the planet and for the better.<p>What will happen to all the truckers (standard example)? We&#x27;ll stop making more of them, just as we did with farmers and radio DJs and newspaper delivery boys and phone network operators and gas pumpers; existing drivers will gradually be phased out. If I ask you what you think I mean, when I say: &quot;robot helpers&quot; - what would you answer? Robots that help people, right? No. There are going to be millions of people working as robot helpers in the next ~30 years just in the US - humans will help the robots work better; the robots will be far more productive at what they do than humans at the exact same tasks, but most of those robots will not be able to function fully autonomously in the next century (in fact, economically it&#x27;ll never be desirable to build fully autonomous robots for all tasks, quite the opposite; as such, there&#x27;s no scenario where millions of human robot helpers won&#x27;t be necessary). The dramatic gain in productivity the robots will bring to said tasks, will more than offset the cost of continuing to have humans that act as robot assistants.<p>Absolutely nothing will be fundamentally altered in regards to market economies, when it comes to the rise of robotics &#x2F; AI etc. The premise about mass unemployment is a fear based fraud and will be proven so only as the years drift by and the mass unemployment never materialize. Unfortunately, in the meantime, the fear angle will continue to draw clicks.
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paulbaumgart超过 8 年前
My bet is that we&#x27;ll just transition to an economy where the vast majority of jobs are service jobs.<p>(There will be bumps on the road, and, as technologists with increasing economic power, we should vote for politicians who support smoothing out those bumps.)
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rvern超过 8 年前
Yes, it will: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Lump_of_labour_fallacy" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Lump_of_labour_fallacy</a>.<p>&quot;There is no limit to the amount of work to be done as long as any human need or wish that work could fill remains unsatisfied. In a modern exchange economy, the most work will be done when prices, costs, and wages are in the best relations to each other.&quot; (Hazlitt, <i>Economics in One Lesson</i>)
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dlss超过 8 年前
Capitalism is the most fair (symmetric) solution to the class of multiplayer games in which the participants have asymmetric access to many kinds of scarce goods. [okay, that&#x27;s somewhat speculation, but I expect it&#x27;s right.]<p>Since scarcity ceasing sounds improbable, and I expect people will continue preferring fair systems to unfair ones, I expect capitalism will survive.
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andrewclunn超过 8 年前
Yes. Capitalism will exist so long as there is scarcity. Humanity has proven that when technology gives us abundance, we will reproduce until there&#x27;s scarcity again. Machines can make things more efficient, but not faster than humans breed.
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deepnotderp超过 8 年前
I believe so. But it will be accompanied by an UBI and markets will simply shift to higher level functions being sold in a capitalistic markets by people whose basic needs have been taken care of through robots.
emmanvazz超过 8 年前
This is basically the new Industrial Revolution. It survived the first one pretty well. It will take the workforce a bit to adopt to it but I think it will survive.
Joeri超过 8 年前
New jobs always arise when technology makes old job categories disappear. When agriculture became mechanized, farm jobs evaporated, but in exchange we got supermarket cashiers and insurance agents. The same thing will happen now. Job categories will disappear and others will get created, that we can&#x27;t imagine yet. The transition will be rough, but capitalism will survive.
walrus1066超过 8 年前
Yes, in the same way it survived previous revolutions, which were much more disruptive than the current one.<p>The voluntary exchange of goods and services, at prices set by the competing producers of the goods and services, is the most efficient way of matching supply and demand, whether the supply is generated by man or machine is irrelevant.
SwedishChemist超过 8 年前
I&#x27;ve started a list of government positions that AI could take over. Probably do a better job. It would save tax payers some money.
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pdq超过 8 年前
Of course.<p>That&#x27;s like asking if gravity will still exist in 100 years.<p>No system has ever been more efficient than free markets, and robots will only help with efficiency. The only way to kill capitalism is by the state.
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rmanolis超过 8 年前
Technology free the markets. Now not even the state will not be able to stop black market thanks to the technology. Also technology gives more types of jobs. Before we were only hunters and gatherers , however now with technology we have more types of jobs. So even if robots do all the manual jobs then all the people will work on arts and science. My point is that capitalism will never die because we will never stop wanting unique and expensive things. However by the time the robots do all the manual work then we will be able go to space. That means more space for each person to have a farm with robots and exchange things with other people without the need of the state. Actually the state can be replaced today by a cryptocurrency that tax each transaction 5% and let the user to choose with his digital signature where to spent it. We are close enough to fire all the public workers thanks to the technology and replaced them with the private sectors and coupons for giving free services. Technology destroys any type of socialism.
rebootthesystem超过 8 年前
It has been my experience that those who speak ill of capitalism have never risked it all to launch and run a business after identifying a need or dreaming-up a new product or service. Words like &quot;greed&quot; are then flung about in complete disconnect from reality.<p>Here capitalism and free markets become evil as they are &quot;watched&quot; from the outside. Little do they know just how hard it is. Little do they know what degree of effort, dedication and tolerance for risk it requires.<p>They look at entrepreneurs and companies and eventually see evil from their flawed frame of reference while neglecting to notice all they have thanks to precisely the people they vilify. Nothing funnier than an anti-capitalist using a computer, and iphone, a car or enjoying the benefits of modern medicine. Even wearing a pair of socks manufactured through modern means while criticizing capitalism is nothing less than hypocritical.<p>Will capitalism survive the robot revolution?<p>Of course it will.<p>What will create the robot revolution in the first place? It certainly won&#x27;t be people not chasing dreams or taking risks. It will be people willing to put it all on the line to chase their passions and ideas and, yes, to make a profit while doing so. Profit is the feedback that says you are doing something people want. It&#x27;s the result of a voluntary relationship between producer and consumer. It&#x27;s a good thing.<p>Capitalism doesn&#x27;t require advanced technology. It has nothing whatsoever to do with it. Robots, horse-drawn carriages, cookies or light bulbs, it makes no difference.