Facebook is a basic utility at this point. The products that attempt to "replace" it come in 4-6 year waves, reflective of the typical duration of high school or college. A new social app arrives, and if it breaks some initial barrier of discoverability (usually through growth hacks), it can enjoy some initial success on college or high school campuses. Users naturally arrive in four year cohorts. If the app has "staying power," the users will graduate and spread it to their new networks. Unfortunately this is not always the case.<p>Initial success for 4-6 years does not guarantee future success. Yik Yak is a great example of an app with initial traction that failed to capitalize. Much of that failure was attributable to product decisions. However, from the very beginning, they were tied to a rock in rising tides. Growth of YikYak benefitted from college culture, but the product itself became too dependent on that culture, limiting its ability to spread post-college. As a result, YikYak churned users as they graduated, and eventually there was nobody to replace them.<p>Snapchat appears to be the most recent company with "staying power." College campuses popularized Snapchat, but the product does not inherently depend on a college community like YikYak did. People continue using Snapchat after graduation.<p>When evaluating if a company will be the "next Facebook", you need to look at its "staying power." Can it break the 6 year threshold? Once that happens, it seems that public recognition and becoming a "household brand" is sufficient to sustain growth until at least the 10+ year mark (or lead to acquisition by FB [0]). For examples, see: facebook, twitter, instagram, whatsapp, youtube, twitch, reddit...<p>The next question is, what makes facebook different from all those other companies lasting 10+ years? How do you replicate that?<p>[0] Also, consider that we will never know how instagram or whatsapp would have developed, had they avoided acquisition by FB, like Snapchat did.