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Seattle's Painful Lesson on the Road to a $15 Minimum Wage

41 点作者 guildwriter将近 8 年前

12 条评论

dang将近 8 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14637873" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14637873</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14642828" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14642828</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14645866" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14645866</a>
djsumdog将近 8 年前
The State of Victoria (Australia) had a $14.50 minimum wage when I lived there, and most baristas and servers I knew wouldn&#x27;t take jobs that paid less than $20. It&#x27;s important to note that&#x27;s the entire wage as AU doesn&#x27;t really have a tipping culture. Melbourne has been voted &#x27;most livable&#x27; city multiple times.<p>Seattle&#x27;s situation is much more complex. Condos are going up and ST3 is funded, but the city needed that rail system a decade ago. The biggest problem in Seattle, as is the Bay Area, is growing income inequality.<p>When the fishing industry grew in Seattle, so did local shops, bars, hotels and all the other industry that gets paid various wages across the board to support each other. Seattle is a tech capital, and those jobs are very high demand. People in tech often get paid more than lawyers and even doctors.<p>I remember a lawyer telling me very few of the police he&#x27;s met live anywhere near the areas they work in. People who bought houses decades ago for $150k are watching their neighbours take buyouts and leave, selling their places for $800 to over a million.<p>The disproportionate amount of income given to those in high demand fields hurts everyone else across the board. Seattle is building a lot more housing, unlike the bay area, but there is still a considerable amount of single occupancy housing in the city that&#x27;s empty simply because the owners won&#x27;t sell it or bring it up to code.<p>It&#x27;s more than just minimum wage. There are a lot of complexities in that city where you can&#x27;t just focus on a couple of numbers.
wildmusings将近 8 年前
The push for a national $15 minimum wage is so unhinged from reality, yet so politically popular, that it&#x27;s terrifying. People living in coastal America just don&#x27;t realize that they&#x27;d essentially be banning work in large swaths of the country. An hour of work simply isn&#x27;t worth $15 in many places. Those places also have very low costs of living.<p>If a $15 minimum wage was imposed nationally, these communities would collapse and you&#x27;d simply have millions of additions to the ranks of urban poverty.
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ChristianBundy将近 8 年前
This study is really, really, really bad. Here&#x27;s an analysis:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.washingtonpost.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;posteverything&#x2F;wp&#x2F;2017&#x2F;06&#x2F;27&#x2F;seattles-higher-minimum-wage-is-actually-working-just-fine&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.washingtonpost.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;posteverything&#x2F;wp&#x2F;2017&#x2F;0...</a>
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ubernostrum将近 8 年前
Genuinely curious: if employers are simply cutting back hours to save paying the extra wages, what&#x27;s happening with those hours that aren&#x27;t staffed anymore?<p>One possibility is that the businesses were already overpaying for labor by staffing more employees for more hours than were needed. But that just turns a minimum-wage hike into a convenient excuse to roll back hours&#x2F;staff (much as economic downturns tend to be used as a cover for companies to lay off people they no longer needed anyway).<p>Another possibility is that more hours are being assigned to salaried employees since it doesn&#x27;t cost extra to have them work more. But that would actually be a <i>good</i> thing -- it would increase the demand for salaried full-time employees, and being a salaried full-time employee is much better than being a minimum-wage hourly employee.<p>Another possibility is that businesses are just closing down more often rather than pay people to keep things operating. But that seems unlikely.<p>So what&#x27;s actually happening?
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0x27081990将近 8 年前
Economists have been warning this for more than decades[1]. There are extensive studies about it. There are even former Marxists who talked about it, like Thomas Sowell[2]:<p>&gt;Sowell has said that he was a Marxist &quot;during the decade of my 20s&quot;; one of his earliest professional publications was a sympathetic examination of Marxist thought vs. Marxist–Leninist practice. His experience working as a federal government intern during the summer of 1960 caused him to reject Marxian economics in favor of free market economic theory. During his work, Sowell discovered an association between the rise of mandated minimum wages for workers in the sugar industry of Puerto Rico and the rise of unemployment in that industry. Studying the patterns led Sowell to theorize that the government employees who administered the minimum wage law cared more about their own jobs than the plight of the poor.<p>Why do almost everybody think they can go against the laws of economy?<p>[1] 50 Years of Research on the Minimum Wage: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.jec.senate.gov&#x2F;public&#x2F;_cache&#x2F;files&#x2F;c876c468-ffca-47ed-9468-7193d734bde9&#x2F;50-years-of-research-on-the-minimum-wage---february-15-1995.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.jec.senate.gov&#x2F;public&#x2F;_cache&#x2F;files&#x2F;c876c468-ffca...</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Thomas_Sowell#Education_and_career" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Thomas_Sowell#Education_and_ca...</a>
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blacksqr将近 8 年前
Every prediction of doom from minimum wage hikes has failed to come to pass [1], yet the anti-minimum wage dead-enders advance ever more tendentious, hair-splitting and arcane justifications for why minimum wage increases are &quot;bad news.&quot;<p>A policy that has the effect of transitioning the economy from low-skill low-wage jobs to more high-skill high-wage ones ought to be celebrated among human beings as a victory. It provides an incentive for workers to improve their skills to compete more effectively and meaningfully increase their income.<p>Only those who outright prefer a serf economy can describe this study as a negative for Seattle.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;civicskunk.works&#x2F;moving-the-goalposts-on-seattles-minimum-wage-43261b19ee63" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;civicskunk.works&#x2F;moving-the-goalposts-on-seattles-mi...</a>
erentz将近 8 年前
Hmm they want me to pay to read the paper. But I have many questions, e.g. how do they know this wouldn&#x27;t have happened anyway. Was there an increase in the number of worked hours being classified as non low wage, and is that why less hours worked were classified low wage, etc.<p>But ultimately minimum wage laws are based more on ethics than anything. I&#x27;ve not heard of any business going out of business because of this in Seattle. I doubt there are any. This city is ridiculously expensive to live in. I want the people serving me food, etc. to be able to afford to live here. $15 per hour doesn&#x27;t go far enough, but in lieu of something more dramatic it&#x27;s the least we can do.
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IanDrake将近 8 年前
If I were an employer hiring minimum wage workers in Seattle, I&#x27;d be looking to dump my employees worth $10&#x2F;hr and hire some worth $15.<p>Assuming my ability to raise prices is capped due to out of city competition, then my only choice is to do more with less, which means hiring more productive workers.<p>To me, that means hiring better people. People who don&#x27;t need training, can multi-task, who can deal with having more work than time.<p>So, sorry kid looking for your first job, I just hired someone from outside the city who was making $15 an hour because they where worth it. I can&#x27;t afford to train you anymore.
checkdigit15将近 8 年前
This is another dupe of the discussion at <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14637873" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=14637873</a>
notadoc将近 8 年前
Interesting, perhaps not too surprising with some lines of work.<p>I&#x27;d be interested to know how it has impacted broader economic activity in the region.
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oh_sigh将近 8 年前
Will this put even a slight dent in the zeal of the $15 minimum wage folks? Their platform was not based on any kind of economic analysis to begin with, so I suspect that additional data in that field will not affect their desire to see this pushed through.
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