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Bitcoin study: Period of exclusivity encourages early adopters

143 点作者 InInteraction将近 8 年前

10 条评论

gtirloni将近 8 年前
I have a hard time reconciling the social justice goals of some cryptocurrencies with this initial period where people are basically creating wealth out of thin air by doing useless computations at the cost of enormous electricity.<p>How are we any better for it? A select group gets rich, there is rampant speculation and fraud... but we&#x27;re fighting &quot;the man&quot; so it&#x27;s all good?<p>I can&#x27;t see how society is better for this (or ever will be).<p>I&#x27;ve mined some BTC and ETH while thinking about these issues and I can&#x27;t see a future where anything is different so I&#x27;ve stopped. It seems we&#x27;ll replace bankers and oil millionaires with miners and early adopters... and the average Joe is where it was always.<p>Sorry for thinking out loud all these disconnected thoughts. I really want to believe but I&#x27;m having a hard time.<p>Meanwhile, it seems I&#x27;m doing better for society if I donate my spare resources to some distributed computing project to research cancer, AIDS, etc.<p>Where do you see the future in 50-100 years if cryptocurrencies take off for good?
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module0000将近 8 年前
Bitcoin has come a long way... 7 years ago I was writing perl scripts to cobble together a depth-of-market program that operated on the mtgox API. I would get excited scalping coins from $17-19 USD back then. No SEC&#x2F;CFTC, no regulation, no anything, just good old fashioned auction market theory - combined with a sucker being born every moment and winding up on the other end of a mtgox trade. The sky was the limit, it was an exciting time if you were an oddball breed of programmer crossed with day trader.<p>Fast forward.... WTF is going on now? Regulated exchanges for bitcoin, dozens of btc clones, new exchanges being birthed&#x2F;destroyed each month, and the dinosaurs of finance adopting it 10 years too late. It&#x27;s a crazy mixed up world.
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basseq将近 8 年前
I&#x27;m struggling with the findings here. From the article: all late adopters (&quot;NLAs&quot;) and non-delayed early adopters (&quot;NEAs&quot;) had a cash out (or abandonment) rate of ~10%. (Ironically, higher for NEAs at 11%, but likely not statistically significant.) But <i>delayed</i> NEAs cashed out at 18%, and at even more significant rates where social ties were stronger (e.g., dorms). And these delayed NEAs can affect NLA adoption in the long term.<p>Separately, we could say that general exclusivity schemes (e.g., gmail, facebook) can accelerate <i>broader</i> market demand. But, of course, it&#x27;s not causation: plenty of &quot;exclusive&quot; products never gain traction.<p>So this suggests there&#x27;s a certain class of people who care deeply, potentially more about &quot;status&quot; of being an early adopter than the underlying tech, and will be toxic if they don&#x27;t get what they want. So... identify these people carefully?
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wyldfire将近 8 年前
Paper from Science [1] (registration or scihub required). Not clear to me whether &quot;cash out&quot; means that they sent funds from a MIT-controlled wallet into any other wallet or if they took it to addresses known to be exchanges. If the former then another explanation is that they were just being prudent to truly control the money.<p>[1] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;science.sciencemag.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;357&#x2F;6347&#x2F;135" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;science.sciencemag.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;357&#x2F;6347&#x2F;135</a>
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EGreg将近 8 年前
The value of money is the aggregate feeling of each person that a seller will agreeto accept it in exchange for something they need.<p>The more people do this, the more the network effect.<p>In a sense, money is like an app that spreads through a population. Just another app :)<p>It can be local currency in a community. So paying in this currency helps keep the community vibrant.
freeflight将近 8 年前
I&#x27;m not a coder so my understanding of the technology is very limited, but couldn&#x27;t we use the blockchain to P2P host something besides a crypto currency, something like a public discussion platform that&#x27;s tamper&#x2F;censorship proof? The crypto currency feature could still be kept in place as a payment for people doing the actual hosting, but it would only be there to help facilitate the platform itself and not it&#x27;s sole purpose.<p>Is that idea even viable or am I vastly misunderstanding the technology behind BC?
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londons_explore将近 8 年前
It&#x27;s only at MIT where an experiment like this can hand out effectively 400k in cash, just to see how participants react...
nebabyte将近 8 年前
Also known as the late gmail study
DiNovi将近 8 年前
like facebook only accepting university email addresses.
The3rdHand将近 8 年前
&quot;More than 50 percent held on to their bitcoins ... The $100 in Bitcoin they were given in 2014 is now worth more than $700&quot;<p>HODL!!!