I greatly admire Elon. I have to disagree with him.<p>Unless he is aware of something I'm not, Moravec's Paradox points to a future of increasing employment for blue collar labour (builders, nurses), a minority of jobs for information manipulation labour (programmers, designers) but unemployment for huge parts of the traditional middle class gig: architects, lawyers, accountants and engineers.<p>Geoff Hinton's inventions and observations are intimately tied into that. The likely disappearance of radiologists excepting an elite few specialists (search for "hinton radiologists"). If your work can be represented by a 2D photograph that is not good news for you.<p>The self driving car doesn't change this view (short-mid term), the driving of vehicles is a particularly constrained environment in comparison to other blue collar tasks. People have been trying to build houses in factories for centuries without succeeding because it turns out people with upgraded hand tools are flexible and fast (see Toyota), it already costs next to nothing to frame a house, prefabrication exists but is most often for high spec builds: a clue to the economics.<p>As Elon has said, it takes about 20 years for autonomous cars to become normal.<p>Bluntly: Can you put a robot into meatspace alongside people, pets and make it do useful work. Boston Dynamics has them walking, just about, under constraint. The robots in Fukushima have been something of a disappointment.<p>tldr; As of yet: Robotics != AI. Advances in AI do not automatically imply robotics. AI is hard, Robotics is insanely hard.<p>Now please tell me I'm wrong.