China’s AI Awakening

Key competitive advantages of China are their strength in quantitative skills, a huge population, and the hard working and competitive culture of the populace.<p>An objective measure is PISA results [1]. When comparing with even the best performing US state, Massachusetts, China has many more top performers in Math, as a proportion of population [2].<p>(In 2015 only four provinces of China participated, but their combined population was 230 million vs Massachusetts&#x27;s 6.8 million. The math result of Shanghai (24 million pop.) alone would show an even larger gap.)<p>Since PISA results are scaled such that OECD country&#x27;s mean is 500 and standard deviation is 100, China&#x27;s 531 math score implies country mean at 0.3 SD above PISA mean, and US&#x27; math score at 470 implies 0.3 SD below mean. If people capable of doing AI research or proper AI implementation need to have math skills at, say, 2 SD above PISA mean, then there will be a tremendous difference in proportion between two populations with 0.6 SD difference.<p>My back-of-the-envelope calculation, assuming above figures, is the proportion will be about five times as large. But China has more than 4 times the population of the US, so the difference in <i>potential</i> numbers of AI-capable natives could be around 20 times. (Since other provinces may drag down China&#x27;s mean, it could be a bit less. An opposite influence is increasing wealth and thus more resources devoted to education, both by parents and the state. We&#x27;ll see soon since China as a whole will participate in PISA 2018.)<p>Moreover, the Chinese government is pushing AI and programming education into their education system, starting from the primary level [3].<p>The distinct advantage of the US is that it is the magnet for top talents and ambitious people from all over the world, including the Chinese, so it might continue to lead for a while. However, if the US becomes inhospitable to talents or <i>potential</i> talents, it is clear that China with its quality and quantity of human resources will soon take the lead.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Programme_for_International_Student_Assessment#China" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Programme_for_International_St...</a><p>[2] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.compareyourcountry.org&#x2F;pisa&#x2F;country&#x2F;usa1?lg=en" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.compareyourcountry.org&#x2F;pisa&#x2F;country&#x2F;usa1?lg=en</a><p>[3] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.people.cn&#x2F;n3&#x2F;2017&#x2F;0828&#x2F;c90000-9261282.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.people.cn&#x2F;n3&#x2F;2017&#x2F;0828&#x2F;c90000-9261282.html</a>

Extremely relevant quote from the talented Mr Ng:<p>&gt; “When the Chinese government announces a plan like this, it has significant implications for the country and the economy,” says Andrew Ng, a prominent AI expert who previously oversaw AI technology and strategy at China’s biggest online search company, Baidu. “It’s a very strong signal to everyone that things will happen.”<p>ie. There is going to be a tonne of money poured into this.<p>Will it make a difference, tangibly to economic transformation? Who knows...<p>...but anyone sitting here scoffing that China can’t make itself a world leader in a field by simply pouring money and support onto the problem needs a serious history lesson.<p>They have before, and there is every indiction they will again, here with this.<p>More interesting: will it be as transformative as everyone is hoping?

I&#x27;m getting a bit of a flashback to the Japanese Fifth Gneeration Computing project (I wasn&#x27;t around back then; I&#x27;ve read about it though).<p>Then, too, an East Asian country (Japan) known for excellence in one field (manufacturing) initiated a state-funded research project into a promising technology (AI). Then, too, the West reacted with alarm, fearing the Asians would leave them in the dust. Then, too, the project was about AI.<p>Except, back then, it didn&#x27;t go too well [1]. But, perhaps this is just pattern matching failure on my part and nothing is even remotely the same today.<p>____________________<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Fifth_generation_computer" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Fifth_generation_computer</a>

Another competitive advantage of China is data. China has 1.4B population, and nearly everyone in the country owns a mobile phone. This will contribute data 3-4 times larger than US. Considering second-order interactions (network effect), the data could be an order of magnitude larger.<p>Chinese citizen also seems less concerned about their privacy. I&#x27;ve talked to one of the largest chat platforms in China, and they seems very open to share their conversation datasets with third-parties for dialogue research.<p>In high-value verticals like healthcare, there is also less regulation compared to U.S. For example, it&#x27;s easy to start a AI + radiology company in China and have access to hospital patient data, without going through tedious approval process.

Hmmm. MIT Tech Review now behind cognito-only browser shield? Is that new?<p>What&#x27;s really interesting is the continued trend of cashless WeChat Pay adoption in China versus say trickling Digital Payments penetration here in USA. I actually just had to order a new replacement set of paper checks. And its simply due to the fact that so many small merchants cite higher credit card fees as a reason for preferring cash or checks for payments.<p>Coupled with AI, I think this preference for instant, fee-less digital payments will translate into convenience stores without cashiers. Auto repair shops where you just drop off your faulty electric vehicle and hop into a loaner without actually interacting with a customer service agent. And thousands of other technology-mediated retail experiences.<p>It&#x27;s Asian consumer adoption and demand driving AI solutions from the bottom up. And that makes it much more likely to result in first mover advantage and the potential for game-changing breakthroughs.

I am a Chinese born AI researcher and I&#x27;ve had most of my higher education in the US. The funny thing is that when I was a high schooler in China, I was not particularly good at math and basically hated anything quantitative. There are two points I want to make to counter some of the arguments people have brought up.<p>First, even though Chinese high schoolers are &quot;better&quot; at math and there are certainly many gifted kids, it does not necessarily mean that they are better at abstract thinking and will excel at higher levels. On the other hand, some of the most talented people I know did not have super impressive test scores. They are insatiably curious and think from first principles.<p>Second, if you look at the top researchers today, you&#x27;ll find their strength comes from combining knowledge from different disciplines, e.g. computer science and neuroscience. The education system in China pretty much hones students in a single dimension, pushing them into a narrow corner. Also, the most important thing in research is not just understanding what has been done. It is thinking critically and challenging authority. Unfortunately, in my opinion, this really goes against the Chinese regime and Chinese culture to a large extent.<p>I wouldn&#x27;t be surprised by a large number of future Chinese AI &quot;engineers&quot; who can quickly replicate the latest research. But I think China has a long way to go in order to create an environment that allows students to freely explore and think before a real AI breakthrough.

Another key trend to consider - China&#x27;s labor costs are growing up to 2x per year: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.newyorker.com&#x2F;magazine&#x2F;2017&#x2F;10&#x2F;23&#x2F;welcoming-our-new-robot-overlords" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.newyorker.com&#x2F;magazine&#x2F;2017&#x2F;10&#x2F;23&#x2F;welcoming-our-...</a><p>China&#x27;s push for AI is a recognition that the loss of one advantage (cheap human labor) could be replaced by another (cheap machine labor).

Has China produced a single major AI breakthrough with all these cited papers? Just because they have a lot of papers written doesn&#x27;t mean anything. Quality vs Quantity. You can take technology developed by others and copy it all you want, and assign all your grad students to write something publishable about it, but unless you innovate in it, I wouldn&#x27;t say you are a world leader. At best you may see novel applications of AI tasking come out of China, and people will falsely equate this with &quot;China is beating us at AI.&quot; I still think the General AI breakthrough will come from Western researchers out of the box thinking.

<i>The plan calls for homegrown AI to match that developed in the West within three years, for China’s researchers to be making “major breakthroughs” by 2025, and for Chinese AI to be the envy of the world by 2030.</i><p>Really? Major breakthroughs can be mandated by a centralized government? Back in the 80s-90s, Americans were convinced that Japan was going to eat its lunch. It gives me some hope in knowing that we still suffer from this complex.

Whenever I read articles like this I&#x27;m really looking for the million dollar idea. Solving Go is good. Solving Poker is better. Best would be solving a high-value business problem for which a solution using AI can be developed.

I was reading the USNews CS ranking yesterday, got really surprised that apparently some Chinese universities are now considered as the best in CS.<p>top 20 list:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.usnews.com&#x2F;education&#x2F;best-global-universities&#x2F;search?region=&amp;subject=computer-science&amp;name=" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.usnews.com&#x2F;education&#x2F;best-global-universities&#x2F;se...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.usnews.com&#x2F;education&#x2F;best-global-universities&#x2F;computer-science?page=2" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.usnews.com&#x2F;education&#x2F;best-global-universities&#x2F;co...</a>

What I never understood, if China is so great, why then do large parts of their upper middle class&#x2F;upper class buy property in foreign countries and send their kids to school their? It&#x27;s not as if the American upper class are purchasing houses in Beijing for their kids.

there was a time when the U.S. had a leader who declared a bipartisan mission to do something great and worthy of the effort and the U.S. accomplished that mission: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=TuW4oGKzVKc" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=TuW4oGKzVKc</a> -- fast forward to ~7:40minutes for most relevant<p>AI is the new moon shot of our time but its rally cries are emanating by leaders of U.S corporations for the maximization of profit of their shareholders where as in China they are emanating by the leaders of the state for reasons far exceeding short-term economic gains

Sorry, my questions might reflect that I don&#x27;t know much about China &#x2F; Chinese culture. I&#x27;m curious about compensation. Can Chinese AI researchers earn equally well in China as abroad? Or are they going to suffer from brain drain eventually? How does the Communist Party &#x2F; society deal with large pay gaps? Are Chinese companies with AI departments looking for international talent that&#x27;s not at the uppermost level?

Pro tip for folks looking to take a job with a Chinese company: this will prevent you from jumping to some jobs in the US. The defense sector will want you to be not employed by the Chinese for at least a year before letting you work on defense-related jobs (yes, they will audit your employer).

Scientists like Ng ought to consider the repercussions of their actions when they decide to aid Chinese companies, and by extension, the Chinese govt with cutting edge research. They are basically collaborating with the enemy that stands against pretty much everything that the west granted them (scientists like Ng who were born here and given the opportunities).

Thb, most of the interesting work I&#x27;ve seen has come out of Silicon Valley. What breakthroughs have come from China?