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The Evolving Economics of Bitcoin, Gold and Fiat Currencies

131 点作者 brakmic超过 7 年前

14 条评论

ploggingdev超过 7 年前
&gt; A digital currency that replaces fiat currencies as a medium exchange cannot have a fixed supply. In fact, central banks, like the Federal Reserve, might even create their own cryptocurrencies but ones that are designed to optimize economic growth. It will probably need to have constant money supply growth and preferably money supply growth that matches economic needs and not some algorithm’s hard, mathematical constraint.<p>Finally someone acknowledges this reality. I&#x27;ve brought this up multiple times in Bitcoin discussions and never heard one good argument to backup the claims that Bitcoin can became a mainstream p2p fiat replacement for the masses all while having a 21 million coin limit.
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indescions_2017超过 7 年前
Bitcoin comparison with Gold has become gospel. And with it a typical upper bound on the price estimate of a single coin in the ~$100K range. The assumption is that the total Gold market is about $10T globally and Bitcoin will displace some percentage of that. With the current Bitcoin market valuation based on exchange rate approaching $1T and 25% or so mining complete.<p>But a much better estimation might arise from looking at global consumer demand for Digital Payments. By the year 2020 its conceivable that we are at 1T digital transactions. At an average value of $10 each, we are again speaking of roughly the size of the total market for Gold.<p>The million dollar question is: What percentage of all digital transactions globally will be made in BTC?<p>Approaching the problem from the FinServ lens, rather than FinTech, can radically alter your view ;)
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throwaway5752超过 7 年前
&quot;The phenomenal increase in the value of bitcoins, by 6,000,000%, over the past seven years, has taken the investing world by storm. CME Group will launch Bitcoin futures in the fourth quarter of 2017.&quot;<p>This is promote an upcoming product.
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neilwilson超过 7 年前
No clue at all what money is, or about.<p>Yet another &#x27;money is a commodity&#x27; view that just doesn&#x27;t fit reality.<p>Money is a representation of credit. That&#x27;s actually what we use it for.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;modern-money-matters&#x2F;crypto-shilling-87995d1d89b0" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;modern-money-matters&#x2F;crypto-shilling-8799...</a>
thisisit超过 7 年前
The whole article in a single sentence: &quot;However volatile they may be, the reason why gold and bitcoin are perceived as stores of value is simple: their money supply doesn’t grow quickly and, in the case of bitcoin not at all, some day.&quot;<p>Ergo, bitcoin is like gold. Hence, should be valued as gold.
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genericacct超过 7 年前
Finally a way to short bitcoin without having to worry about counterparty risk!
josh2600超过 7 年前
Did the CME group just call bitcoin dramatically undervalued??
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jiggunjer超过 7 年前
Again the flawed gold comparison. You can still trade gold after the miners stop mining.
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dreamdu5t超过 7 年前
What’s clear from all these comments is that economic theory is bankrupt and impotent at explaining or predicting anything. It’s quite odd constantly hearing why bitcoin can’t work or whether it can be labeled a currency according to academic theory X, yet reality doesn’t care.<p>Bitcoin is amazing simply for showing us that monetary economists have no clothes. They’re astrologists that use math.
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Jeff_Brown超过 7 年前
&gt; Some fiat currencies lose their value slowly, others do so quickly. That loss of value is precisely what makes them useful. Without the fear of inflation, holders of currency tend to hoard rather than spend it. Hoarding currency depresses economic growth and creates financial instability.<p>Economist here. That relationship is not clear. A currency skyrocketing in value induces suboptimal willingness to delay spending, yes, but one plummeting in value induces a similarly suboptimal willingness to spend too early.<p>Moreover, a depressed economy can cause deflation, rather than the reverse: Sluggish economic activity implies weak aggregate demand (people not buying a lot of stuff), which can lead prices to fall.
derekmhewitt超过 7 年前
This was an interesting article, thanks for sharing it.<p>But as an average consumer and amateur investor (at best) I&#x27;m much more interested in using Bitcoin (and other digital currencies) as a medium of exchange rather than as a store of value. For short term transactions (ex: exchange fiat for bitcoin -&gt; transfer bitcoin to recipient) digital currencies offer a very fast, secure, and simple method for transferring value across borders that would traditionally take much longer than a few ticks of the blockchain. And over that shorter term their value is relatively stable and suitable as a medium for such exchanges.
etr-strike超过 7 年前
I believe a fixed supply of currency is beneficial when determining price. The ability of an institution to secretly change the amount of a currency used to measure price introduces yet another variable into the valuation equation.<p>Additionally, when the dollar was fixed on the gold standard, employers needed to be upfront and honest with their employees. When they needed to cut wages, employees knew it was happening. Much of the labor movement and union formation happened because employers needed to be honest about what they were doing.<p>I&#x27;ve yet to hear a convincing argument that inflation is good for me.
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anonemouse145超过 7 年前
&gt; Bitcoin isn&#x27;t Fiat currency. &gt; Bitcoin Cash doubles the number of coins in an instant, and future updates could do more, and the market value of each coin increases rather than halving.<p>Choose one.
TheGrassyKnoll超过 7 年前
&gt; &quot;...the Federal Reserve, might even create their own cryptocurrencies...&quot;<p><pre><code> If that happens, wouldn&#x27;t demand for Bitcoin take a hit ?</code></pre>
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