This link from yesterday got me thinking about this interesting question again: http://techcrunch.com/2010/07/30/conway-numbers/<p>So, if I start an average startup today, with an average team and an average idea, how big is the chance that it will be a success within five years from now?<p>I know this is a very hard question, because it depends on so many things, and it is also kinda hard to come up with a good definition of what a startup is. Perhaps a good definition of a startup is a company that has received funding (and therefore some kind of external approval/stakes in it)?<p>But let's discuss anyway :)
Define Success...<p>If success is a living while not working for 'the man' then the numbers are quite different when compared with say $200K turnover per employee per year.<p>If your team and your idea are 'average' I don't give you much chance to get off the ground, let alone to become successful.<p>Good team, good idea, good execution -> You have a chance.<p>Any of those 'average' and you'll more thank likely fail.