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Deflation - Are lower prices scarier than higher ones?

23 点作者 chwolfe将近 15 年前

9 条评论

Gormo将近 15 年前
Deflation poses a couple of significant threats.<p>Firstly, it acts as a disincentive to real investment: the rate of deflation is effectively an interest rate earned on funds stuffed into mattresses. If deflation is at 5%, no one will want to invest in any project with less than a 5% return over the same period. Risk and liquidity premiums would also increase even for investments that do provide a higher return than the deflation rate.<p>Secondly, existing long-term debts would become extremely onerous for borrowers. The implications for outstanding mortgages could make the recent default epidemic pale in comparison.<p>However, it's worth pointing out that the 19th century was largely a period of sustained, gradual deflation, and was also a period of tremendous economic growth with little of the amplified boom-bust cycle we experienced in the 20th century.<p>I'd conjecture that a climate in which a small amount of deflation is accepted as a given would foster economic decision making that tends to focus more on real wealth-creation, and less on the kind of financial abstractions which have led to the recent turmoil. As long as we could manage the transition from a slightly inflationary to a slightly deflationary economy (i.e. find a way to deal with the problem of outstanding debt), I'm not so sure it would be quite the disaster that the article portrays.
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noelchurchill将近 15 年前
<i>"For decades, politicians and pundits on the right have told us that we need to balance the federal budget in order to keep inflation low; this remains a staple of libertarian thinking (even though economic research demonstrates that except in wartime, there is effectively no relationship between the size of government spending and the existence of inflation)."</i><p>Well in that case, lets just stay out of war and let the gov hand out monthly payments to everyone so we don't have to work anymore. If government spending doesn't lead to inflation then this should work out fine.
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sp332将近 15 年前
Computer hardware (and electronic hardware in general) has been in continuous deflation for decades. "Wait until the price comes down" is common advice in tech circles. And yet the market has grown exponentially regardless.
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ajg1977将近 15 年前
Krugman wrote a good article earlier this week addressing why deflation is a bad thing.<p><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/02/why-is-deflation-bad/" rel="nofollow">http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/02/why-is-deflation...</a>
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viggity将近 15 年前
FTA: <i>"For decades, politicians and pundits on the right have told us that we need to balance the federal budget in order to keep inflation low; this remains a staple of libertarian thinking (even though economic research demonstrates that except in wartime, there is effectively no relationship between the size of government spending and the existence of inflation)"</i><p>Sure there is no correlation between size of government and the existence of inflation, but that isn't what the <i>"politicians and pundits on the right"</i> have said, they said <i>"we need to balance the federal budget in order to keep inflation low"</i>.<p>It isn't overall government spending is going indicate inflation, but rather <i>large deficit spending and/or large gov debt</i> that is going to lead to inflation because the only way to pay off creditors is to print more money, the more money in circulation the less value it has =&#62; inflation.<p>Am I wrong? Isn't there some awful inflation going on right now in Zimbabwe because they government keeps printing more and more money to pay off its debt?
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chrismealy将近 15 年前
Folks interested in deflation will want to check out Irving Fisher's debt deflation and Hyman Minsky's work:<p><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_deflation" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_deflation</a> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky" rel="nofollow">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky</a>
j_baker将近 15 年前
This is what I love about slate. It seems to do a better job of reporting on issues like this without a lot of partisan ideology.
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hop将近 15 年前
Information, trade and money flows at light speed around the world now. This is very different than the 1930's and with a world wide market system, and the US having the reserve currency, I think it would be tough to have spiraling asset deflation like the Great Depression. Whats not tough is abusing this and printing tons of money.
sentinel将近 15 年前
Not for me they ain't.