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Warren Buffett: Bitcoin Is Pure FOMO

122 点作者 jamix超过 7 年前

18 条评论

mholmes680超过 7 年前
&quot;Rather, dollars are a temporary store of value, a means of transmitting that value from one person to another. As Buffett says, valuing bitcoin is like trying to value a paper check drawn on a bank. Pointless.&quot;<p>I agree with the premise of the article, but isn&#x27;t this quote a jump from that? Whats preventing bitcoin from being a temporary store of value to transmit from one person to another; Isn&#x27;t there a second argument to be made on why its a bad _currency_ or not? I think something like this article: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;view&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2017-12-27&#x2F;bitcoin-is-an-implausible-currency" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;view&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2017-12-27&#x2F;bitcoin-i...</a>
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thisisit超过 7 年前
Buffett has described investing as ability to find the right pitch to swing at. He invests in companies which are within his &quot;circle of competence&quot;:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2017&#x2F;02&#x2F;02&#x2F;warren-buffett-simplifies-investing-with-a-baseball-analogy.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cnbc.com&#x2F;2017&#x2F;02&#x2F;02&#x2F;warren-buffett-simplifies-in...</a><p>This lesson is apparently lost on many people.
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XR0CSWV3h3kZWg超过 7 年前
He didn&#x27;t say that. That&#x27;s what the author of the article said.<p>Of course Warren buffett doesn&#x27;t like it. He has made his name on being able to tell if a stock&#x27;s price is above or below it&#x27;s fundamentals. Bitcoin doesn&#x27;t have fundamentals and it doesn&#x27;t pay dividends.
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juanmirocks超过 7 年前
Sending small to large quantities of wealth worldwide quasi instantly and with small fees does have a tremendous value. Ask families of immigrants.<p>Buffet hasn’t even invested in digital tech stocks. IMO, even after all the huge respect he deserves, he doesn’t get this technology. Other than that, I don’t doubt that many current “investors” are only FOMO movers
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PakG1超过 7 年前
Scrolling through these threads, I am surprised at how many people are suggesting that Buffet just doesn&#x27;t get it. That&#x27;s possibly not wrong. Buffet&#x27;s desire to not get into stuff he doesn&#x27;t understand is well-documented. He traditionally has stayed away from tech investments for primarily that reason, and definitely doesn&#x27;t do bleeding edge tech when he finally does do tech. As the OP alludes to, Buffet actually commented similar stuff about Bitcoin already. His logic hasn&#x27;t changed much from then till now in terms of seeing what the endgame is. <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.businessinsider.com&#x2F;why-buffett-doesnt-invest-in-technology-2014-3" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.businessinsider.com&#x2F;why-buffett-doesnt-invest-in-...</a><p>If people think Buffet doesn&#x27;t get it, everyone&#x27;s entitled to their opinion. But if you want to say he&#x27;s wrong, you should explain what&#x27;s wrong with his logic. The OP summarizes his logic really well, and I see nobody in these threads taking apart his logic. Quoting the OP:<p>Intrinsic value is this continuous waterfall of cash. It’s not the stock price of Coke but the actual cash flow of the business, after costs.<p><i>Buffett made his billions by divining when the gap is greatest between intrinsic value and a stock’s share price, then buying loads of shares, tickets to real cash flow other investors would want.<p>Given that bitcoin is supposed to replace cash, what is the ultimate source of cash flow from digital coins created on the internet? It’s dollars flowing from the pockets of buyers who want to own those coins.<p>Cut off the supply of new investors and the bitcoin craze ends.<p>The fact is, bitcoin has no intrinsic value at all. While many digital coin “investors” would argue that neither does a dollar, I counter that just about nobody thinks of American cash as an investment, except for perhaps currency speculators.</i><p>Yes, I&#x27;ve seen a comment somewhere in here that says, &quot;hey, aren&#x27;t people who buy American dollars currency speculators too?&quot; Yeah, of course. But I don&#x27;t see anyone attacking the part about whether or not Buffet&#x27;s fundamental thinking of intrinsic value is applicable here.<p>I will point to another interesting article that summarizes similar thinking in another way. This article is perhaps interesting because I&#x27;ve seen many people here describe Bitcoin as digital gold.<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nasdaq.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;why-warren-buffett-hates-gold-cm267928" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nasdaq.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;why-warren-buffett-hates-gold-...</a><p><i>He considers gold a nonproductiveasset because it doesn&#x27;t produce anything of value. To illustrate this point, Buffett proposed this thought experiment in his 2011 letter to Berkshire shareholders:<p>&quot;Today the world&#x27;s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce -- gold&#x27;s price as I write this -- its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.<p>&quot;Let&#x27;s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world&#x27;s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-aroundmoney (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?<p>&quot;A century from now the 400 million acres of farmlandwill have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops -- and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever thecurrency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will beunchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.&quot;<p>So, instead of nonproductive assets such as gold, Buffett prefers productive assets like farmland or companies that generate enormouswealth for shareholders -- companies like Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) , Coca-Cola or See&#x27;s Candy.<p>And he clearly explains why:<p>&quot;Our country&#x27;s businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial &quot;cows&quot; will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of &quot;milk&quot; to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from thesale of the milk willcompound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well).<p>&quot;I believe that over any extended period of time this category ofinvesting will prove to be the runaway winner… More important, it will be by far the safest.&quot;<p>This last sentence is important. Investing in productive assets carries less risk.<p>That&#x27;s because, in the past,irrational exuberance has caused all sorts of nonproductive assets to suddenly skyrocket beyond any sane measure ofintrinsic value . The run-up on the prices of tulips in the 17th century is one colorful example.</i><p>If Buffet is wrong, take apart his logic. Otherwise, we can only wait and see. Me, I wish I&#x27;d gotten in on Bitcoin when it was $1, who doesn&#x27;t wish that? But... I have yet to figure out how the heck it&#x27;s reaching these prices. I see it, and it doesn&#x27;t make sense to me. And I think I understand tech better than the average layperson. In fact, the fact that it&#x27;s so expensive <i>and</i> volatile makes it difficult to use even as a currency. That makes it even more of a &quot;nonproductive asset&quot;.
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keypusher超过 7 年前
Buffett has never liked commodities or speculative assets. His primary strategy is to invest in wealth-producing assets. For instance, he said he would much rather own farmland than gold. And that&#x27;s a great strategy. But it&#x27;s not the only viable strategy.
root_axis超过 7 年前
Well that much is obvious. This doesn&#x27;t speak to whatever utility bitcoin might have, but the recent uptick in price clearly has nothing to do with bitcoin&#x27;s technical properties.
tfolbrecht超过 7 年前
I appreciate the reporters critique, but what I believe they&#x27;re missing is that there&#x27;s an inherent value in the network and its market share in the space.<p>Bitcoin is not the check, it&#x27;s the store of value and the bank. Bitcoin is the investors, developers, the miners, the ledger, wallets(accounts), the speculators, the store of value. Bitcoin is the headline maker in the WSJ, NYT, etc. That multilayered coupling is what makes BTC valuable.<p>The reporter talks about intrinsic value of companies, cash flow etc. The underlying healthy and stable economy is not some axiomatic truth. With BTC, You have all of the components to have currency emerge into existence and stay from bitcoins incentive system.<p>How much is it worth? That depends on what the alternatives are worth, and that evaluation changes every day. I hope it&#x27;s long term near worthless, but you can never be too sure.
arisAlexis超过 7 年前
I still don&#x27;t undestand why HN instead of being at the forefront of innovation aligns up with old school money. I guess most here are dependent n the old system and VCs
fantasticsid超过 7 年前
He has none but he could be shorting it?
down超过 7 年前
Bitcoin saves lives in Venezuela, you people need to get your head from your asses, first world is not the only world.
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Kinnard超过 7 年前
Does Warren Buffett understand digital signatures?
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aphextron超过 7 年前
As someone completerly uninvested in this whole mania, I still see Bitcoin as something with an inherent value. The real problem right now is that nobody knows <i>what</i> that inherent value really is. Even if the price were to crash 100x tomorrow, Bitcoin would still have <i>some</i> value because of the energy expenditure involved with Proof of Work. Of course people that are &quot;investing&quot; in it now are simply gambling. But Bitcoin itself will pretty much always have some worth because it will be impossible to recreate the amount of effort that went into mining it.
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KasianFranks超过 7 年前
He&#x27;s said in the past about technology and software that &quot;I just don&#x27;t understand it&quot; then he gives advice to people telling them not to invest. Classic Buffett and if you think about that it makes no sense. He also famously missed out on the appreciation of technology sector from about the mid 90&#x27;s onward. I wonder what he thought of Netscape giving away their product freely while also being one of the greatest IPOs of all time.
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alexeiz超过 7 年前
It&#x27;s all smoke and mirrors. Just as Dimon called bitcoin investors &#x27;stupid&#x27; at the very time he was already trading bitcoin, Buffett&#x27;s downplaying of bitcoin is also a sign that he wants to get in on the action.
brndnmtthws超过 7 年前
It&#x27;s interesting to note that most of the people who are pro-Bitcoin were born after 1980 or so. Could it be that Mr Buffett just doesn&#x27;t get it?
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_red超过 7 年前
Goldman Sachs hasn&#x27;t yet setup their own Bitcoin trading desk, but they are building it. No doubt Buffet is trying to temper enthusiasm until their trading platform is built. Once it is, suddenly he will &quot;Understand it&quot;.
adamnemecek超过 7 年前
Warren Buffet has previously vowed not to invest in tech b&#x2F;c he said he doesn&#x27;t understand it. I think it changed in the last ~5 years. But I still don&#x27;t think that he &quot;understands&quot; tech.<p>The Beanie Babies comparison is straight up stupid. I can go to Africa right now and I can imagine that even some of the remoter parts will be aware of bitcoin.
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