TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

Subscription Revenue Model (spreadsheet)

37 点作者 rlivsey超过 14 年前

6 条评论

BobbyH超过 14 年前
I use a different method for calculating the "Avg customer lifetime (months)", which is implied by some logic from a great book called The Loyalty Effect: <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=ctAj_SfSrKIC&#38;printsec=frontcover" rel="nofollow">http://books.google.com/books?id=ctAj_SfSrKIC&#38;printsec=f...</a><p>Using this formula, I get different results for "Avg customer lifetime (months)" than the OP.<p>I calculate the average length of the customer tenure based on the formula: 0.5 = (1-churn%)^t, where "churn%" is the monthly churn rate, and t is time passed in months. Basically, this formula says: when will 50% of the customers be left?<p>You can solve for t:<p>0.5 = (1-churn%)^t<p>ln (0.5) =ln(1 - churn%)^t<p>ln (0.5) =t x ln(1 - churn%)<p>t = ln (0.5) / ln (1 - churn%)<p>You can test this math by calculating how long t is for a churn of 50% (it's 1 month).<p>Using this math, the average tenure for a monthly churn of 1% would be 60 months. The average tenure is useful because you can then do a discounted cash flow analysis on 100% of the cash flows until time t, to calculate the lifetime value of the average customer. So in this case, you would be discounting 100% of 60 months of cash flows.<p>The average tenure goes down rapidly as you increase the churn rate. At 2% churn, the average tenure is 34 months. At 3%, it's 23 months. At 5%, it's 14 months. And at 10%, it's 7 months.<p>If you have enough data, you can use a non-constant churn rate as well, as churn rate definitely goes down over time.
streety超过 14 年前
The spreadsheet links to <a href="http://bit.ly/93pK2v" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/93pK2v</a> (pdf) as a source of further information. Seems to be a discussion of SaaS in general.
ryancarson超过 14 年前
It's fun to share this, as figuring out these numbers has always been tricky. Feels good to finally open up the discussion and get these formulas figured out. Also been really fun to develop the spreadsheet as a community effort.
评论 #1633949 未加载
评论 #1634213 未加载
mtr超过 14 年前
I've been looking for something similar but for non SaaS websites. My site will rely on targeted advertising and the sale of classified ads. Is there something similar that suits my use, taking into account viral coefficients etc.<p>And along the same lines, is it more reasonable to make estimates on page views or uniques per month??
评论 #1635298 未加载
zackham超过 14 年前
Does anyone know how to copy this spreadsheet to a personal Google account so it is editable and private? I am not seeing that option. Thanks!
评论 #1633082 未加载
评论 #1633951 未加载
jacquesm超过 14 年前
What did you base the customer life cycle on?
评论 #1633039 未加载