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The sudden death of the website?

90 点作者 helloworld超过 7 年前

31 条评论

Klathmon超过 7 年前
This seems... Very out of touch.<p>The author makes the argument that all websites look the same because of Google, but never really gives a reason why... (besides name dropping &quot;PageRank&quot; once)<p>Then it goes on to say that same experience (or more accurately the lack of a &quot;unique&quot; experience) is why they have poor conversion rates.<p>Then it blames the website for causing an increased spending in customer service, pointing to this as the reason why they think brands will start &quot;closing&quot; their websites.<p>But every step of the way I think the author is way off. Websites don&#x27;t look like that because Google&#x27;s &quot;PageRank&quot; is forcing them to somehow, and that look and feel isn&#x27;t the reason why conversions are bad.<p>In my opinion, websites look like that because a useful website follows some guidelines, and that may make it look &quot;bland&quot; but at least I know to look for my &quot;cart&quot; at the top-right of the page (or even have the concept of a &quot;cart&quot;).<p>Also, I think the reason why conversions are bad is because retailers looked at the web for years as an afterthought. The reason only a handful of large companies are doing well on the web is because so few treated it as well as they treat their storefronts. You can&#x27;t treat the internet as an afterthought, you need to build your business around it. Amazon, eBay, Overstock, and others have done this, they spent the time, money, and engineering to do it right, and do it fast. Someone like Nike throws something slow and cumbersome to use together as an afterthought just to have one.<p>If websites start closing, it&#x27;s not because of the &quot;big bad google&quot;, it&#x27;s because ecommerce is hard, just like how some online-only or online-first companies are now finding out how hard brick-and-mortar really is.
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kaoD超过 7 年前
I don&#x27;t want conversations. I want information. If the info is already missing in a web page I fail to see how a virtual salesperson saying &quot;well, I don&#x27;t know&quot; is going to sell better.<p>Case in point: I&#x27;m cleaning up a house to live in and we need a new kitchen sink. The problem is there was already one there so we want to buy a replacement that is bigger than the current cut out in the counter and also fits nicely with the pipe installation.<p>Searching for a sink online has been a nightmare: if there are schematics (which are often missing) there is always some key information left out like the depth of the bowl.<p>This includes the king of online retail: Amazon lists package size and nothing else. When was the last time the package size influenced your purchase?<p>Buying in person hasn&#x27;t been much better and the prices are almost double! At least I can bring my measuring tape and do the schematics myself, though I still hate getting pitched by salespeople that often know much less than me after a 20-min online research.<p>In the end we&#x27;re going for the cheapest one that has a reasonable return policy. Who cares about the more expensive ones if, for all I know, the only difference is their aesthetics?<p>This is such a common pattern I started dreading buying online. I&#x27;m tired of hunting for the specs on Google. That&#x27;s the shop&#x27;s only job!<p>IMHO the article is nothing more than an advertisement for the author&#x27;s business. Maybe he&#x27;s sure of the paradigm shift but I&#x27;m definitely not because an actually useful conversational assistant requires both competence, effort and, more importantly, exposes the seller to risks (official information = contractual obligation, which is IMHO the reason you will not get the answers IRL or via customer support either).
koverda超过 7 年前
Not buying it from this guy.<p>He says things are going to move to conversational commerce? Alexa at best can re-order something that I&#x27;ve bought before. If I need a new product, the amount of information and comparison that I do (as well as checking reviews) doesn&#x27;t lead well to a conversational model.<p>It&#x27;s not like we walk into a B&amp;M store and just talk to a salesperson. We examine the products, the packaging, the information presented about those products, we look around near by and see what else in a similar category is in the store.<p>Conversational commerce moves to an even lower bandwidth information transfer. With websites we can absorb way more info than we can with a chat bot. At best it will augment current experiences.<p>Maybe I&#x27;m wrong, and there are some products that are well suited to this model, but I&#x27;m failing to come up with any.
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dwheeler超过 7 年前
This is a nonsense ad for someone&#x27;s services. I don&#x27;t want websites to work totally differently from each other, nor does anyone else. Instead, I want to be able to find the information that I want, or be able to quickly acquire the services I want. There&#x27;s a false premise about brick-and-mortar stores here too. Brick-and-mortar stores aren&#x27;t radically different from each other either,; I expect doors to look like doors, windows to look like windows, and when I look for the bathroom I should be able to figure out how to use it. The notion that every website has to look radically different from each other is nonsense from people who are too excited about making new designs instead of wanting to help other people. Let&#x27;s let&#x27;s have fewer fads and more thinking about people, please.
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mattlondon超过 7 年前
I&#x27;d argue that conversational interfaces for retail would only be good for standardised commodities - 6 medium hens eggs, a pack of 10 M6 screws, a ream of A4 paper etc - i.e. stuff that you don&#x27;t care about the brand or specifics, you just need some eggs etc.<p>Websites could do A LOT better by concentrating on putting better product info on their site: proper <i>high res</i> pictures from multiple angles (e.g. for products in boxes, show me every side of the box that I can zoom in and read the text on), descriptions that aren&#x27;t just copy-paste marketing B.S., and proper measurements&#x2F;sizes&#x2F;specifications. That&#x27;d go a long way toward reducing confused shoppers having to call a help centre...<p>Personally, if I have to talk to someone at a store (online or not), they&#x27;ve already started to annoy me. I just want to get my stuff then carry on with the more important things in life.<p>Plus what is it about chatbots that is getting people so excited? Anyone that has an Alexa or Google home will tell you they are frustrating and irritating to use and a long way away from doing anything useful apart from trivial stuff like setting kitchen timers or stilted and excruciatingly awkward question-answer settings.
Wehrdo超过 7 年前
It seems like this guy is trying to advocate for conversational interfaces (what a surprise, given his company). They were all the rage 1-2 years ago, and I think right now we&#x27;re probably in the &quot;Trough of disillusionment&quot; in the Hype Cycle. I wonder if the author is simply behind everyone else on the curve and harboring unrealistic expectations, or truly sees where that technology will fit into our lives. Given his prediction of a &quot;major website&quot; shutting down this year, I would lean more towards disillusionment.<p>I think many are coming to the conclusion that proper natural language understanding will require more than just a deep feed-forward network with back-propagation.
t0mbstone超过 7 年前
Google didn&#x27;t kill e-commerce. Amazon killed it. People are sick of creating accounts on every single web site out there. Who wants to enter your credit card info on some random web site? How do you know if you can trust them? And then, when you do successfully place an order, you end up having to pay shipping and handling, and it doesn&#x27;t come for two weeks. Compare that to one click shopping on amazon.com, and one-day free shipping. Independent e-commerce sites just can&#x27;t compete with that.
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dsign超过 7 年前
What this guy says makes no sense whatsoever... for anybody that knows a peanut about the matter. But he is speaking to business types, and among those, technical knowledge is less prevalent. Probably he wants to start another meme infection of &quot;the web is going to die&quot; among investors and business analysts...
550r超过 7 年前
It doesn&#x27;t seem that long there were plenty of people predicting that mobile apps were also going to render websites obsolete, but that didn&#x27;t really happen, at least nothing like the extent that was predicted. In fact most of the main app only experiences like instagram have ended up creating web interfaces anyway.<p>Maybe it will eventually happen but this article predicts some major brands shutting down their websites this year, which is like saying cryptocurrencies will start replacing cash in some major western countries this year. The only real value I can see in a brand shutting down it&#x27;s website for a chatbot only service right now is the the free publicity they will get for doing so. Websites are normally relatively cheap to run so there is no real reason to kill them off unless it&#x27;s getting no traffic compared to the chatbot channels and from my own experiences in this area, chatbots aren&#x27;t even close to website use yet (but I am in Australia, where things like Alexa and Google Home are quite new in the market compared to the US).
davemel37超过 7 年前
I think everyone is thinking about chatbots and conversational interfaces backwards.<p>Consumers should be the ones building chatbots to talk to brands not vice versa. The brands can use NLP and AI to partially automate much of the conversation, but it needs to be consumer driven... too much of the promise of chatbots requires breaking down barriers and as long as brands control their own experience and every bot is siloed, the real pain of consumers and current ecommerce wont be solved...<p>Too much of technology today is focused on optimizing businesses and ends up the end users.<p>Online advertising is a protection racket where publishers steal and hold customers hostage and sell them to the highest bidder...all the middleware is optimized around grabbing your piece of the advertising pie without caring about the end users or the advertisers...in the meantime, its just driving up costs to deliver value...<p>We need a buyer driven market...we need long term visionaries who stop optimizing to business revenue and cost savings and optimize to GROWING THE OVERALL MARKET!!! optimize to what really serves customers and advertisers instead of these short aighted plays solving problems the previous startup created...<p>We wouldnt need facebook ads if our competitors werent reaching our customers on google and we wouldnt need content marketing if publishers actually tried to serve advertisers instead of just trying to drive up their costs...<p>These companies are thinking about everything backwards imho.
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Animats超过 7 年前
Some commerce sites do have complicated problems. Ones where there are size and color options, but not all sizes and color combinations are available, have user interface problems.<p>Car parts sites are getting good. They mostly now take the make and model of your car, and then give you a site that only shows items for that model.<p>Industrial parts sites, especially for electronics, range from excellent to terrible. They have huge catalogs of very specific parts, and you need a specialized search engine to navigate them. Those things are not conversational; they&#x27;re table driven.
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jschwartzi超过 7 年前
Try buying a pair of pants that you like through a &quot;conversational interface,&quot; and then get back to me when you figure out what the problem is.
fireismyflag超过 7 年前
&gt;As Google made it easier to find the world’s information, it also started to dictate the rules through the PageRank algorithm, which forced companies to design their websites in a certain way<p>Page rank is not dictated by website design, and it&#x27;s not the reason many websites share the same components... UX is, we have found the proven path and following it makes it easier for our users.<p>Los of other valuable criticism in the site&#x27;s own comments as well...
georgeoliver超过 7 年前
Less than 15% of direct sales is through ecommerce, but I&#x27;d bet a good fraction of RL dollars spent is a direct result of an app or website.
osrec超过 7 年前
A bold prediction. Don&#x27;t think it&#x27;ll come true. I do think that the way we discover answers to our questions online will change though. I&#x27;m not saying Google&#x27;s days are numbered, but it&#x27;s about time we saw some additional innovation in this space. Google has this underlying requirement to continually bolster ad revenue before releasing tech, and I feel this actually stifles it&#x27;s ability to innovate in the search space...
GedByrne超过 7 年前
Alexa is still struggling to understand what Album I want to listen to from my rather limited music library.<p>She won’t be replacing the Amazon website anytime soon.
hrasyid超过 7 年前
&gt; The brand will shift how it connects with consumers — to conversations, with a combination of bots and humans, through a messaging front end like SMS or Facebook. We are already working with several large brands to make this a reality.<p>This is arguably happening in third world countries. At least in Indonesia (which I&#x27;m familiar with), a lot of new businesses don&#x27;t bother with websites but relied on things like Facebook, Instagram, or WhatsApp (coincidentally these are own by the same guy) to reach out to customers and get orders.
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majormajor超过 7 年前
I&#x27;m not sure companies will forgo websites entirely, but &quot;dumb&quot; websites is a trend I think will continue. I doubt many people do anything on the Snapchat website, for instance.<p>I expect media to continue to move to TVs and dedicated apps, and the reasons outlined by the author for commerce to move away from the open web are somewhat convincing, as well. Looking at my own behavior, I usually search Amazon before Google when I want to buy something - take that trend further and searching the web, vs searching an app store, becomes less and less important for business.<p>In the happy version of this scenario, the web returns to being a great place for text and knowledge storage. There will be ads as long as there are eyeballs, but if the number of eyeballs drops again, does the reason to create clickbait and other purely-ad&#x2F;eyeball-driven &quot;content&quot; drop too?<p>But compared to the author, I think it has a lot more to do with phones and devices, and the needs to create experiences aimed at them, than Google. Who wants to sit on the couch with a laptop instead of an iPad? Who wants to use a mobile website instead of a dedicated app? Even what looks like a super-thin wrapper (the Amazon app) is still a nicer experience than using amazon.com on a tablet or phone.
localcdn超过 7 年前
Who do I get in touch with to subtly promote my company with a piece on TechCrunch?
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manmal超过 7 年前
When it comes to e-Commerce, maybe we should rather listen to people who are actually managing a store. Tony Hsieh of Zappos has written a wonderful book about customer care, and it all boils down to getting in touch with the customer as MUCH as possible. Everytime a customer calls in, that’s a chance for you to create a positive experience for them, and they are more likely to become repeat customers. Without this, you become interchangeable. The very moment Amazon is superseded by another retailer with similar prices and return policy, I will change to them - I feel no loyalty towards them. That’s not the case with my local supermarket, where I know all the cashiers and there is this feeling of personal familiarity.<p>So phone calls are not necessarily the problem - maybe digital sales automation is the problem.
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anfilt超过 7 年前
This article is verges a bit much the ad side for the author. However, part me like the idea of a lot fluffy commerce stuff leaving the internet and it just being a giant library of information. However, that&#x27;s not happening especially since a lot commerce websites also post information. I also don&#x27;t see how chat functionality would cause such a shift? If you are wanting to reduce the amount questions your website is generating maybe add more content to it. I hate how so many &quot;modern designed&quot; websites are so light on information. They just end up as fancy brochures with little to no information. Give me data sheets, give me all the details I could possible want about your product&#x2F;s.
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bsder超过 7 年前
The most fascinating thing from that article, to me, is the fact that a website creates <i>MORE</i> phone traffic, not less.<p>That seems like an interesting wedge for some company that actually cares about customer service.
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z3t4超过 7 年前
Yeh, well organised (library like) online stores suck. I rather buy my stuff by communicating with a sales person via SMS messages ...
sunseb超过 7 年前
Remember how hard we had to fight pop-ups back in the good old days ? I find funny that this guy is selling this exact idea.
EngineerBetter超过 7 年前
As someone who remembers the usability horrors of the 90s as wr stumbled our way to figuring out what worked, I think the author is misidentifying the issue. Websites work just fine now - the issue is Amazon having an economy of scale and business model whereby they almost all other e-commerce sites are an irrelevance.
pedalpete超过 7 年前
Off topic, but does the $500B total global advertising spend sound wrong to anybody else? I&#x27;m seeing reports of that number, but that seems incredibly low to me.<p>Google made $95B in advertising revenue in 2017, can they really be almost 1&#x2F;5th of the entire global advertising spend?
astura超过 7 年前
So the hypothesis is that every website looks the same thanks to Google yet, at the same time, nobody can figure out how to use these identical websites so everyone gets on the phone to do business.<p>That&#x27;s not matched my personal experience, to say the least
leeoniya超过 7 年前
there&#x27;s something to be said about a <i>predictable</i> experience. no one needs checkout buttons on the left and mystery meat navigation [1] for the sake of being unique. i personally don&#x27;t want a MySpace or Geocities shopping experience. brick and mortar stores are also not <i>that</i> different for the same reason.<p>our avg purchase online is $500 and a phone purchase avg is closer to $1,000. we&#x27;re happy when customers call so we can further differentiate ourselves from our competitors.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Mystery_meat_navigation" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Mystery_meat_navigation</a>
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pif超过 7 年前
1 - HTML was meant for static content and e-commerce never was about static content. Wow, who could have thought about this?<p>2 - Humans like human conversation. Oh, the biggest surprise!<p>Jeez, I learnt two things today!
vikingcaffiene超过 7 年前
I call BS. The authors predictions are based upon the assertion that people would rather make a phone call than use a website. I acknowledge that maybe I am in a bubble and don&#x27;t understand the average user but, really?? It seems pretty commonplace for people in my generation (xennial) and those after mine to go out of their way to _avoid_ the phone. I will _always_ use an online communication method if I can.<p>If the argument was that some new tech was coming to blow websites out of the water I could at least try to give it the benefit of the doubt. That&#x27;s not the premise here and, much like email, many have tried to replace websites. All fail.
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kyledrake超过 7 年前
&gt; I am going to make a bold prediction: In 2018, we will see the first major brand shut down its website.<p>If that was a bet, I would put $50,000 down on it not happening.