Totally agree the unknown unknows make human prediction ability particularly poor in non physical fields. Humans are spectacularly bad at guaging probability of future events, especially using only past evidence<p>Such presise figures are no better than a finger in the air. For what it's worth I would wager that Apple market share will not drop that much and neither will Nokia's if the MeeGo OS performs as good as it looks: <a href="http://bit.ly/bXmOyg" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/bXmOyg</a>