German Military Study Warns of Drastic Oil Crisis

The leaked military information was published in German about a week ago and when reading it you find multiple references to US studies.<p>One of them is from the City of San Francisco who had a task force installed to look into the Peak Oil&#38;Gas www.sfenvironment.org/downloads/library/peakoil_final_report.pdf It is pretty dark report when you read through the paper. One of the statements “events will unfold so badly that unemployment, hunger, and crime are prevalent, and the basic structure of society is unable to function”. But there are some interesting and specific recommendations like "City government could push much harder to promote small businesses” or "develop southeast waterfront" and rail projects. Although I am not sure if anything will happen. But it seems some politician and planers are looking at these scenarios.

What is the competency of the military for assessing 1. world petroleum reserves and consumption 2. the economic consequences of an oil shortage?!<p>I think it's far more likely that Spiegel is misrepresenting the context of the study. The German military, in particular, has a reputation for making contingency plans for everything. It seems to me far more credible that the purpose of the study is rather "in the unlikely event that 'peak oil' is reached soon AND this leads to 'total collapse of the markets', the German Army should respond with actions A, B and C".<p>Discovering such a plan would then have no more significance than finding out, say, about a study of the defensive measures required if Germany is invaded by the Czech Republic.

Not to commit either way, but today we have this: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-coming-oil-glut-2010-9" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessinsider.com/the-coming-oil-glut-2010-9</a>

Non-renewable resources running out is scary and peak oil is fascinating, but with such wildly differing estimates on how long we have it's hard not to be skeptical.<p>That being said, we should definitely be planning for the future, and it's great to hear that the UK and Germany are taking giant strides (Germany generates the largest amount of solar energy, for instance).

Keep in mind:<p>1. many militaries do studies like this. contingency planning. they consider it part of their overall mission of defending their country and interests<p>2. as the supply of cheaper oil shrinks relative to demand, price increases and then more expensive-to-deliver oil becomes marketable (like from shale/sands, or synthetics). and alternate energies become more attractive and economically feasible (solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, nuclear, etc.) and people increasingly try to use less oil. all of this adds up.<p>3. nobody can predict the future with certainty, and the accuracy and reliability tends to go down the farther into the future one tries to evaluate

Peak oil seems like a complete non-issue to me. As a resource, it is in such high demand that when we run out someone will step in with a replacement. There's simply too many capitalists and entrepreneurs in this world to let that void go unfilled.<p>The primary reason alternative fuels haven't caught on yet is because they're not cost effective. As oil becomes a rarer commodity and it's price goes up, a replacement for the fuel supply will gradually emerge as being cost effective.

Personally, I'd love to see the difference between this "draft" version that says things like "Germany may have to sacrifice Israel" or "We are going to have to screw Poland in favor of Russia", and the "final" version that has gone through the political correctness police. I think that would be a fascinating insight into the political process of a nation.

Hmm, the German military are perhaps even more sensitive to the possibility of an oil shortage thanks to its experience being starved for oil in WWII.<p>But really, every (good) military worries about this, and has researched the possibility. Hence the US military's research into battery powered humvees.

Reminded me of this from a while back: <a href="http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1382456" rel="nofollow">http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1382456</a><p>Talks about peak oil in part 6: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3y7UlHdhAU" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3y7UlHdhAU</a>