"Fifty years ago it would have seemed shocking for a public company not to pay dividends. Now many tech companies don't. The markets seem to have figured out how to value potential dividends. Maybe that isn't the last step in this evolution. Maybe markets will eventually get comfortable with potential earnings. (VCs already are, and at least some of them consistently make money.)"<p>Does this not worry anyone? It's basically a statement justifying investment based on confidence, not that an investor is able to reliably guess whether a company will be able to generate PROFIT or not, but that it will be able to generate EARNINGS at all!<p>this is not investing in two birds in a bush (likely to be profitable). It's investing on the basis of four in the nest (potentially earning money at all!).<p>that's astoundingly risky. Now, either you believe investors are stupid and risk-insensitive (or risk-blind! not uncommon in a bubble) and will keep investing the same sums of money as they ever have, or you believe they are clever, credit strapped and most certainly not risk insensitive. Option A means a world of pain up ahead for investors and their backers, because we're in a mighty bubble. Option B means PG is wrong (though doubtless he'd like to be right, because it makes flipping seedstage companies from the YC stable a hell of a lot easier)<p>Based on the total inability of even the biggest players on the scene - e.g.YouTube, Facebook and Bebo - to monetise, I really don't see how the confidence to move to an earning-optimistic (from profit-optimistic) investing mode is at all justified. If anything, earnings are less certain than they ever have been, the slide should be the other way.