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Future sailors: what will ships look like in 30 years?

43 点作者 okhan大约 7 年前

14 条评论

krschultz大约 7 年前
As someone that has designed (military) ships, here are my thoughts.<p>- LNG is definitely happening, and that alone will make a massive difference in emissions.<p>- No shit smoother bottoms and bulbous bows are better for efficiency, that&#x27;s been standard practice for decades and large cargo ships are generally not that old.<p>- Counter rotating props are interesting, I could see that being a big win but the mechanical complexity might not be worth it. Cargo ships are generally kept pretty simple for reliability.<p>- I doubt we&#x27;ll see widespread wind or solar power any time soon. The dynamics of wind turbines on top of a pitching platform get pretty wild quick. The energy density of solar doesn&#x27;t seem high enough.<p>- Lol, get the fuck out of here with the idea of nuclear power for cargo ships. The US Navy doesn&#x27;t even bother with that complexity for anything other than subs &amp; carriers where it&#x27;s the only viable option.
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gk1大约 7 年前
I&#x27;m excited but skeptical.<p>Energy-saving concepts have been around for a long, long time. For example, I first heard about the use of kites[1] over a decade ago, yet the company that makes them is struggling to stay afloat.<p>The issue is that commercial ships are <i>very</i> expensive to build, even using parametric design — where you basically plug in your desired cargo capacity and get a complete blueprint in return. Also, margins for shipyards are razor-thin, so they need to keep production <i>very</i> consistent and predictable in order to stay profitable. So there is not much incentive for either shipyards or shipping companies to build ships that deviate from the standard, cookie-cutter designs.<p>Maybe the upcoming regulation will provide the necessary incentives, but even then it will take several decades for the majority of ships—which have a lifespan of 40+ years—to be replaced with the next generation.<p>(Former naval architect and merchant mariner.)<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;SkySails" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;SkySails</a><p>Edit: Maybe what&#x27;s needed is an Elon Musk for shipping. Someone with the resources and guts to take a big gamble on a new technology in an industry that otherwise moves at a crawl.
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tzs大约 7 年前
A lot of ship cargo consists of things that (1) we need a steady supply of, and (2) have a very long shelf life. For such cargo it doesn&#x27;t matter how long the transit time for any particular shipment is, as long as shipments are arriving at the destination often enough.<p>I wonder if we could make unmanned cargo boats that spend most of their time drifting?<p>Drifting can be quite effective at long distance ocean transport. For an example look at the Friendly Floatees accident [1]. A ship accidentally lost 29 000 floating bath toys in the middle of the Pacific. Over the next 15 years they reached land in on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of North America, the Pacific coast of South America, Australia, and Europe, and came close to Japan.<p>I&#x27;m imagining a ship that drifts, occasionally using an engine to get into known currents that will help it toward its goal or avoid currents known to hurt.<p>Places where two or more significant currents pass through the same region could be used to route traffic. They could have tow ships stationed there that can move drifters between the currents<p>We could have a large fleet of such drift ships carrying suitable commodities with very little environmental impact, with a smaller fleet of normal cargo ships providing fast transport to fill in the gaps caused by the randomness of the drifting fleet arrivals.<p>The above idea is based on the proposals I&#x27;ve seen to do something similar in space. Briefly, there are orbits that can move an object from Lagrange points of one pair of bodies to Lagrange points of another pair using very little energy, but they can take a very long time.<p>The proposals are to start using those to regularly send supply ships to various moons and planets that we think we may want to send humans to later. Suppose the path to some particular moon takes 30 years. If we start sending supply ships down that path now, sending one every 6 months, say, then 30 years from now they start arriving. Then we can send the humans. The ship with the humans only needs to take enough supplies for the trip out, making the trip much more feasible.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Friendly_Floatees" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Friendly_Floatees</a>
Drdrdrq大约 7 年前
What I&#x27;m waiting for is for foils to become useful. It doesn&#x27;t make sense to (only) replace energy source, drag should be minimized too. Admittedly it will take a long time for technology to be ready for these huge ships though.
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Gravityloss大约 7 年前
The following contains simplifications.<p>The shipping sector is squeezed by regulations and fuel prices. If you burn a tonne per hour and it costs a thousand bucks, thats about 8 million bucks per year. If oil price goes up, shipping gets more expensive. Those with newer more efficient or alternative fuel using ships get hit less.<p>If oil price goes down, it is the opposite.<p>Regulations need to be predictable. Ship building projects take a long time. If you can be sure that your fuel costs will be high in the future, an investment in better efficiency will pay itself back in a shorter time.
rs999gti大约 7 年前
Maybe nuclear power for commercial ships?<p>Global navies have proved and refined nuclear power technology for their ships.<p>Why not apply this technology to the commercial sector, instead of carrying gallons of diesel?
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ryanmarsh大约 7 年前
Much like they look now. You might call ship designs a local maxima but the physics aren’t going to change any time soon.
stereocodes大约 7 年前
no one, even from the military posters, mentioned the new salt water engines that are in development? <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.huffingtonpost.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;04&#x2F;09&#x2F;seawater-to-fuel-navy-vessels-_n_5113822.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.huffingtonpost.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;04&#x2F;09&#x2F;seawater-to-fuel-n...</a>
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sdhgaiojfsa大约 7 年前
Anticipated by Paolo Bacigalupi in Ship Breaker. Great book if you&#x27;re looking for some semi-dystopian SF.
ape4大约 7 年前
Seems sensible to have some solar panels. Even to make power for living quarters.
assface大约 7 年前
The Mighty Boosh - Future Sailors<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=eAbkh4TMRqg" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=eAbkh4TMRqg</a>
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carwyn大约 7 年前
Surely the most effective way of improving shipping efficiency is to stop shipping as much? The principal of locality can be applied to far more than memory architectures.
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vvpan大约 7 年前
Well, we could also shop at the thrift shop a little more often. Disposable cheap crap is central to Western culture.
foreigner大约 7 年前
I love how the concept sailing ships look nothing at all like traditional sailing craft. Turns out that we have over a thousand years of experience designing and operating sailing cargo craft - maybe it wouldn&#x27;t hurt to look at some of the older designs guys?
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