The irony beeing that iran, culturally is much closer to the west then all those "natural" allies in the region except israel. The few iranians i met where quite open minded, scientific endavouring and driven people. Very creative.
They even have that messianic martyr streak that makes for such nice founder stories.<p>"For one year we suffered, wearing the cross of 16 h days- and then my company died, but on the third day, i pivoted and it ressurrected." the pull through narrative of the champions.<p>Iran is one huge memorial for top-down modernization gone wrong along with turkey and i presume very soon - saudi arabia. Turns out- that when some cruel elite percived as a outsider force inserts a ideology, the people will reject it quite violently and ralley behind whatever oppossition available.<p>The iran nuclear deal was a attempt to contain and prevent a local nuclear arms race. Which now will go into full gear i presume- israel has nukes, saudi arabia and iran will want them too - or at least join some retaliation strike pact like NATO. Which can be provided by any major nuclear force in the region. So lots of diplomats currently travelling and offering nuclear umbrellas.<p>The colonial era drawn states dissolve and entitys alligned by culture/religion re-appear.
What remains are some mixed out of the way clusters for minoritys, a small kurdistan, syria and a very large iran(including most of the former iraq) with some proxy states, and a wahabi- power block.
Turkey will be cut off from the wahabi-block and get stuck in something similar to vietnam.<p>Lots of the players will go for nukes to cement there conquered territories and enjoy the status of North Korea - in particular since the US seem to be on its way out into isolationism.<p>Russia supports iran currently by accident. Israel has chosen the lesser competent evil as ally and supports saudi arabia against iran- although the very same saudi arabia still propels most the religious narrative of the islamic oppossition to israels existance.<p>Its a great game, and the west is actually percived by now as a unreliable buisness-partner and dangerous - often absent replacable ally.<p>A good coherent strategy would be for the west to force its actual allies - not by propaganda or current ruler, but by cultural development direction( israel, kurds, iran) into a coherent block and leave the rest of the region to do what it always does, repeat past mistakes.<p>PS: North africa is turning into a bunch of warlords playing europe for ressources and bribes in return for holding refugees back.