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Ask HN: Any recommended resources to learn market analysis?

162 点作者 febin大约 7 年前

23 条评论

alehul大约 7 年前
Most people are responding to the trading-related side of the coin, so I&#x27;ll offer some advice on analyzing a market for the purpose of building a startup.<p>It&#x27;s quite hard to find good resources on the internet for this purpose; what helped me was scouring Wikipedia [1] for the buzzwords (check out &#x27;see also&#x27;) and searching on Google if necessary beyond that. There&#x27;s also lots of free lectures from places like KhanAcademy or Coursera that likely cover these parts of business.<p>One small tip my cofounder learned in business school: I don&#x27;t remember the exact terminology, but analyses that go from the inside outwards are more respected by investors than ones that go from the outside inwards. Don&#x27;t take huge figures like &quot;Number of Americans&quot; and multiply by &quot;Percent of Americans that do &#x27;x&#x27;&quot;, but rather find localized, small figures, and extrapolate those up&#x2F;outwards.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Total_addressable_market" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Total_addressable_market</a> <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Market_segmentation" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Market_segmentation</a> <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Target_market" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Target_market</a>
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jashmenn大约 7 年前
Yes - The Art and Science of Technical Analysis by Adam Grimes is fantastic.<p>Typically these kinds of books take one of two extremes:<p>1. Markets are psychology and TA patterns will unlock profits<p>OR<p>2. Markets are mathematics and algorithms will unlock profits<p>Books in #1 will tell you all about Ichimoku clouds, fibonacci levels, fractal patterns, and how to read tea leaves.<p>Books in #2 tend to ignore the (real) psychological aspects of trading and don&#x27;t give you much edge beyond a random walk.<p>Grimes book holds a special place in this dynamic: He discusses price action as psychology, but applies statistical tests to common trader folklore.<p>As a programmer and beginning trader&#x2F;quant, Grimes book was exactly what I was looking for.
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tvladeck大约 7 年前
Without knowing any more about what you are trying to do, I would just recommend a framework we learned at business school that I keep coming back to. It&#x27;s for when you&#x27;re looking at developing or altering a product. It&#x27;s really just a checklist, and it&#x27;s super simple, but it&#x27;s effective. Can be tweaked to understand how different brands are attacking a market.<p>5Cs, STP, 4Ps<p>5Cs: Just list out a bunch of facts to get acquainted - Context: what are the wider trends (e.g. millennial habits, etc.). This is where you start wide<p>- Customer: what &#x27;job&#x27; is your customer trying to do? Who could that be? What is your unit of analysis: a person, an occasion, a ___ ??<p>- Company: what are you good at?<p>- Competitors: Who else is trying to serve that job?<p>- Collaborators: Who could be a partner? (Vendor, complementary service, channel partner, etc.)<p>STP:<p>- Segmentation: What are the different customer segments? What are the dimensions that make two {people, occasions, etc.} different in a meaningful way<p>- Targeting: Which are the viable and nonviable segments? Who&#x27;s your target?<p>- Positioning: What is your:<p>-- POP&#x2F;POD: point of parity&#x2F;point of difference<p>-- Frame of reference: who are you stealing share from?<p>-- Reasons to believe: why would someone believe that you can deliver?<p>4Ps&#x2F;marketing mix:<p>- Product&#x2F;brand: what is your product? what&#x27;s it&#x27;s functionality? what&#x27;s your brand?<p>- Price: level and structure.<p>- Place: distribution channels. Pull vs. push.<p>- Promotion: where will you advertise? What&#x27;s your message?
whitepoplar大约 7 年前
I&#x27;d steer clear of it. Market analysis doesn&#x27;t work on a risk-adjusted basis. I&#x27;d recommend reading any of William Bernstein&#x27;s books for a good intro to passive, indexed investing.
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theptip大约 7 年前
You could do a lot worse than reading all of Ben Thompson&#x27;s core articles on Stratechery:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;stratechery.com&#x2F;concepts&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;stratechery.com&#x2F;concepts&#x2F;</a><p>I&#x27;ve found his Aggregation Theory to be a very useful lens to understand the largest tech companies. Arguably this particular theory isn&#x27;t as useful if you&#x27;re trying to find a niche to start your own company, but he explains a lot of his working in a way that I feel is transferrable&#x2F;generalizable.
hellofunk大约 7 年前
I don&#x27;t think this Ask is a question about the financial markets, trading, or investing, but rather about general analysis of a potential market for a particular business.
throwaway122222大约 7 年前
are you referring to trading or are you referring to &quot;market research&quot;
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slantaclaus大约 7 年前
Best to stick with picking companies based on fundamental analysis and some insight on their competitive advantage, value proposition, company culture, etc. Trading based on price alone amounts to little more than gambling, because it’s impossible to time the market’s cycles in the long run.
ert23大约 7 年前
Talking with a few NY traders I was told that they may use Technical Analysis Theory as a secondary framework to see what is going on just because if enough trades are made following these rules, the prices will follow the TA rules. TA is heavily relaying on human psychology.<p>These traders also told me that do not know anybody at the trading desk that has not quickly felt out of love for TA.<p>TA will work when nothing major is affecting the market.<p>Special events will affect the price is a way that TA cannot predict. Who has enough money or influence can also manipulate the prices. Changes in fundamentals can also affect the price in a way that TA cannot predict.
lisper大约 7 年前
Before studying market analysis you should get a really firm grasp on statistics. In particular, you need to know how to calculate the probability of obtaining a false positive when testing a hypothesis, and then apply that understanding to any market strategy you wish to undertake. With modern computers and ready access to data, it is incredibly easy to fool yourself into thinking you have found a reliable way to beat the market when in fact all you&#x27;ve done is stumbled on a statistical fluke. Test enough strategies against enough data and finding such flukes is inevitable.
strong_silent_t大约 7 年前
I&#x27;d be really interested if anyone has a book or similar on supply and demand curves estimation by experiment. Ideally I&#x27;m looking for a cookbook type book less so than a theory book.<p>If you&#x27;re referring to financial markets, I personally learned a lot from <i>Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners</i>, although I didn&#x27;t finish it. But it explains the basic characteristics of financial markets, and why they are set up the way they are. It isn&#x27;t necessarily going to be obvious and financial markets are based on hundreds of years of accumulated knowledge.
robodale大约 7 年前
I was just yesterday considering writing an essay on Market Analysis (with the intention of creating a startup or otherwise trying to produce something of value for a market).<p>There&#x27;s many ways to approach market analysis and taking it all in at once can be overwhelming, with &quot;Analysis Paralysis&quot; quick to set in.<p>I&#x27;ll follow through and write&#x2F;dump in an article all I know based on my experience and books I&#x27;ve read if anyone is interested.
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Ihmahr大约 7 年前
To understand the market better I would recommend learning much more than just about the market. Knowing and understanding what is going on macroeconomically and geopolitically will help you in the market place. E.g.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;macroaffairs.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;macroaffairs.com&#x2F;</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.economist.com&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.economist.com&#x2F;</a>
thisisit大约 7 年前
You didn&#x27;t use the term stock market, so I am assuming you mean market research.<p>One of the ways people do their research is by creating a landing page and driving traffic via google&#x2F;facebook&#x2F;linkedin ads. The amount of signups for beta is supposed to be an indicator of the product&#x27;s demand.
chad_strategic大约 7 年前
I have read financial books, got an MBA, worked in Finance. Read more books.<p>~70% in 2012 of the market trades on computers&#x2F;algorithms.<p>I recommend reading some finance books, but at the end of the day, you probably going to want start to build a financial trading algorithm.<p>I recommend Black Swan or Fooled by Randomness
tixocloud大约 7 年前
2 great books for thinking about market opportunities:<p>Blue Ocean Strategy<p>Thinking in New Boxes: A New Paradigm for Business Creativity<p>Both aren’t entirely scientific and obviously downplays the effort to make success happen, the theories are quite interesting and applicable.
calabin大约 7 年前
I wrote a short and incomplete guide to market analysis from the quant&#x2F;programming side. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;tradedefender.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;10" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;tradedefender.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;10</a>
3pt14159大约 7 年前
I&#x27;d recommend going through a good university&#x27;s economics textbook and doing all the exercises. It&#x27;s much easier to beat the market by fundamentals than by technical analysis, though a knowledge of both are important.
bbimbop大约 7 年前
My website (beta) teaches analysis with Excel the way that is done by hedge funds &#x2F; asset managers <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.shortcutinsider.com" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.shortcutinsider.com</a>
ydnaclementine大约 7 年前
by market analysis I&#x27;ll assume you mean technical analysis<p>I recommend &#x27;A new trading for a living&#x27;. Great intro to trader psychology and non-BS technical indicators
nautilus12大约 7 年前
You should change the title of this to &quot;market research&quot; which resonates more with researching the market for researching a startup.
bbimbop大约 7 年前
They say that Warren Buffet&#x27;s favorite book is The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham.
uptownfunk大约 7 年前
Valuation by McKinsey