Tesla Faces Accelerating Rate of Model 3 Refunds

As somebody who got refunded: As much as I want to support Elon, I later realized the full total cost of the car (having a garage, doing the maintenance,..) wasn’t in my budget and that it’s simply better to invest in a lifestyle where I just don’t need a car. Interrestingly, I had the same conclusion about buying an house versus renting a appartment.

Yet another quarter has almost passed and, according to the Bloomberg estimate [1], Tesla will yet again miss their goal of producing 5.000 cars a week -- by far. In the most recent week, it was about half that, 2.560.<p>I guess some some people are just fed up with waiting.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;graphics&#x2F;2018-tesla-tracker&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;graphics&#x2F;2018-tesla-tracker&#x2F;</a>

At least in the Tesla fan community, a number of people got tired of waiting and bought a Model S&#x2F;X instead. It remains unclear how many upgraded and as a result of this fell off the reservation list. They should have asked that as well.

This is such a stupid article. Why do people insist on pursuing the idea that there may not be enough demand for the model 3? A car that Tesla can’t even produce enough of yet to meet a fraction of the demand from people <i>already</i> on the waiting list, all without having done any advertising, and everyone’s fretting nobody will want to buy it. It’s absurd.

I ordered two (for me and my wife) the second online ordering opened via my phone at a restaurant as it happens which was novel since we were having a meal with out-of-town friends at the time.<p>We were both very immensely excited but when it became clear that the first release wasn&#x27;t going to be the inexpensive model we decided to cancel and get a refund. AFAICT, it&#x27;s still not clear when that model will be available so I think we made the right choice.

A couple months ago I got an email saying my Model 3 was ready to be configured. Chose all the base options and saved the order. When I came back the next day the page said I was still on the waiting list as if nothing had been configured... still have my reservation but think a 35k Model 3 may never actually exist.

Where is Second Measure getting their data from? Is it statistically valid? They say they analyze &quot;billions of anonymized purchases&quot; which suggests some sort of credit card or bank account scraping.[1] Like the sort of thing those budget management apps do. But... given how small the Model 3 customer base is and how affluent they are, how likely are they to participate in such schemes?<p>Or are they buying wholesale aggregate data from credit card companies? Can they do that?<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.quora.com&#x2F;Where-does-Second-Measure-get-its-customer-transaction-data" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.quora.com&#x2F;Where-does-Second-Measure-get-its-cust...</a>

while I&#x27;m not too surprised that people want refunds on deposits as schedules for luxury goods slip, I feel that the article might have been a little more substance had they included information about percentages of deposit refunds among other verticals, and how those are affected by delays.<p>otherwise, this article feels rather flat.

I have a new personal hypothesis on Elon and his companies.<p>Elon&#x27;s companies are not necessarily better run than other companies, and in some cases are worse run. Their success and Elon&#x27;s cult status as an innovator is a result not of above-average managerial competence but of a willingness to unilaterally defy the Nash equilibria of industries.<p>Automobiles, space flight, and energy are industries that have been stagnant for some time. Stagnation of an industry means that it&#x27;s found some kind of Nash equilibrium where it&#x27;s not really in anyone&#x27;s short term best interest to innovate much or otherwise deviate from the norm.<p>Elon doesn&#x27;t give a rat&#x27;s you-know-what and innovates <i>anyway</i>. Game theoretically he <i>defects</i>. This results in companies that are loss-making in the short term, but if successful they will define a new Nash equilibrium where they are positioned to lead or at least to have carved out a significant chunk.<p>Another way of putting this is that Elon is willing to try to cross fitness valleys between local maxima.<p>It&#x27;s a gamble of course: can you reach the next fitness peak &#x2F; equilibrium point before you run out of cash? This is very hard, and is why Nash equilibria &#x2F; fitness local maxima are so stubborn.

It is interesting that at the same time, sales of the Chevy Bolt aren&#x27;t doing too good. This despite that at least a few reviews I&#x27;ve seen indicate it is a decent EV with decent range.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.fool.com&#x2F;investing&#x2F;2018&#x2F;04&#x2F;05&#x2F;ev-sales-table.aspx" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.fool.com&#x2F;investing&#x2F;2018&#x2F;04&#x2F;05&#x2F;ev-sales-table.asp...</a>

The title of this article is a bit misleading. Tesla is facing an accelerating rate of Model 3 <i>deposit</i> refunds. This is still not great, but as worded the title suggests people are unhappy with the Model 3&#x27;s being delivered. The real (still big!) issue is that people are cancelling their reservation before the Model 3 is delivered.

I can totally relate, while we need a car upgrade right now&#x2F;soon and I can currently configure and order a Model 3, I&#x27;m waiting for the 35K version as I just don&#x27;t see a need for the current longer range model.<p>But at the same time there is no real alternate if I want an EV so I&#x27;m waiting. Worst thing is that the federal credit may expire by the time I can order the 35K version.<p>If my current car, a Prius, that needs to be updated dies, my 2 options are Prius Prime or the Honda Clarity Plug-in.

Been thinking of cancelling my reservation as well. My need for a car has dramatically decreased in the last couple of years with the ubiquity of ride sharing services. Now with last mile services spreading more and more (scooters&#x2F;bike shares) I&#x27;m thinking this trend will only increase.<p>I take the bus and bike to work. Small groceries are also done by bicycle. Whenever I go out to eat with my wife we use a ride sharing service because we enjoy a drink or two with our meals.

What are the key features of a Tesla Model 3 that make people wait several years for their car instead of just going to a car dealership and buying what is available right now?

I don&#x27;t know about 25%, I&#x27;ve read 12% somewhere, but I&#x27;m thinking about it. I was not one of the first to pre-order and I&#x27;m not in the US, which makes the waiting time.. extra long. I&#x27;m wondering if by then (something like mid-2019 I guess) it won&#x27;t be easier to get a &quot;used&quot; one, or even a used model S. I also don&#x27;t like the opaque pricing: pretty sure with the options I&#x27;d like it&#x27;ll cost no less than 50k€, which is far from the announced low cost. I still like the idea to get a model 3 though, and there is no good alternative as of today.

I reserved on 04&#x2F;01&#x2F;2016 and I am still holding my reservation, but not with the same enthusiasm. I love Tesla and Elon and I hope they succeed, but as I consumer I see the $35k as the equivalent of a click bait. It was the “click bait of the decade”. If I don’t get tired and get a refund, I’ll probably purchase the $49k version. But boy, is it frustrating to see Canadians that placed orders long after me receiving their cars. I understand the reasons, but still.

Where does SecondMeasure get their data?<p>I can imagine companies not being super happy about this info getting out, particularly if there are fiscal&#x2F;stock implications.

The guy went 40M into debt to finance the company as it almost died a decade ago. Refunds increasing is hardly a hurdle.

The problem with the reservation system is that I couldn&#x27;t wait any longer. My Leaf&#x27;s lease was up, so my wife and I delayed to the AWD version and bought a different car.<p>Who knows what will happen when the AWD version comes? Will I be willing to replace our other car that we planned on keeping a few years longer?

The biggest question on my mind is whether there&#x27;s a market for 500,000 Model 3 a year ongoing. BMW is an established player and they sell less than that across their entire range.

I think the Chevy Bolt all electric vehicle is luring some customers. It&#x27;s not as sexy but it&#x27;s ~400km range and availability right now make it a great buy.

Is it unwise to buy the first version of car? Seems like you wouldn&#x27;t want to buy something until they get the kinks out, maybe a few years after production.

I feel like this has more to do with the turning of the economic cycle than with tesla specifically.. any debt funded spending is starting to dry up.

We just need to wait for Toyota to release an EV capitalizing on the ~127mpgE of the Prius Prime, and kill everyone else for a little while.

I plan to buy Model 3 in about 2 years or so, so this is great news!

I wonder if they will change the policy on the full refund.

at least Tesla got to use those interest-free loans for quite a while...

Mods, can you change this to the original source article?<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.secondmeasure.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;06&#x2F;04&#x2F;tesla-faces-accelerating-rate-of-model-3-refunds&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.secondmeasure.com&#x2F;2018&#x2F;06&#x2F;04&#x2F;tesla-faces-accele...</a>

Data is based on a report by Second Measure: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;secondmeasure.com" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;secondmeasure.com</a><p>Y Combinator is listed on their website as a ... customer?

This pertains to the people who plunked down a thousand bucks to get in line for one. This is an interesting tidbit, but also a non-story.

It was a win-win either way for Tesla. Worst case scenario for them, they got an interest free loan. They could&#x27;ve just put that money in a savings account and made free money off the 1% interest.