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The F-35 Is a $1.4 Trillion National Disaster

92 点作者 ahmadss将近 7 年前

21 条评论

dang将近 7 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=16869679" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=16869679</a>
everyone将近 7 年前
Alternatively, it could be viewed as one of the most successful US military projects ever. It has funneled X* amount of tax money to the military-industrial complex. Siphoning that money seems to have been the US militaries primary function for several decades.<p>*Some giant number
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rgbrenner将近 7 年前
The cost is incredibly high... but as I&#x27;m reading the article, it sounds like most of these issues would apply to any fighter we build _with these capabilities_. How much of this is just the cost of building these new capabilities?<p>The capabilities described sound useful. And some of what we learn from it can be applied in the future to new planes. So is it a good idea to simply back off from the advanced software, and build a dumber plane just to save money? The f16 is 40 years old.. we&#x27;re going to have these new planes around for a long time.
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dingaling将近 7 年前
$1.4 trillion is a scary number to throw around but it&#x27;s a lifetime cost. Add up the total life cost of all the F-16s and F&#x2F;A-18s that it will be replacing for comparison.<p>I&#x27;m no fan of the F-35 but it is what we&#x27;ve got for the next 50 years so let&#x27;s stop sniping and start fixing.
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farseer将近 7 年前
1.4 trillion has not been spent yet! Only a fraction so far. Unless we fall for the sunk cost fallacy, there is still plenty of time to cut our losses.
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bmiranda将近 7 年前
Although there are teething issues, for US allies the unit the F-35 is attractive due to a unit cost which is lower than any of its competitors (such as the Eurofighter Typhoon).<p>For domestic use, the F-35B STOVL jet used by the Marines is a dramatic improvement in range and capabilities over the Harrier.<p>The F-35A&#x2F;C are less of an improvement, but I would by no means call them a failure. It&#x27;s easy to criticize a program due to cost overruns and mismanagement, but that doesn&#x27;t mean the end result is bad. At the very least it&#x27;s a sunk cost now, so we&#x27;ll just have to deal with it.
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wpdev_63将近 7 年前
Hilariously we spent all that money on R&amp;D and then the chinese hacked the pentagon to stole the designs and made their copy plane for the fraction of the price. It says alot about the military industrial complex.<p>We&#x27;ll be at war with them soon enough so hopefully these will perform when the time comes.
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stillsut将近 7 年前
The F-35 is a weapons system designed to continue the US&#x27;s ability to easily win a conventional war against a high 2nd tier state power in their own territory. What this might look like is the total rout in 1991 of Iraq, which had the fifth largest army in the world, and advanced surface-to-air defenses, defeated in large part by stealth technology. This fighter is basically stating to these threats: <i>you are not going to be able to defeat or stalemate us at our own game.</i><p>I know this isn&#x27;t a popular sentiment around here but consider the difference in outcome between the 1990 invasion of Kuwait vs the 2013 invasion of Crimea: only in the one where we had absolute military superiority did the US - or &quot;the UN&quot; if you prefer - actually get a say in how it turned out.<p>Who does this entail today? The big two are clearly North Korea and Iran. Stretching it, I&#x27;d add Taiwan, Ukraine and the Eastern bloc, India on the China border, Philippines, and Venezuela becoming some type of Cuba situation. Then there are proxy wars between major powers like Syria, which will likely continue to occur in the middle east and Africa for several decades. Even if we don&#x27;t enter these fights, we&#x27;ll be able to give our allies this plane. (Or maybe they&#x27;ll turn down the most advanced plane ever built because the pilot helmet has issues in high humidity situations &#x2F;sarc.)<p>This isn&#x27;t going to neutralize the other two main powers, it will continue to be an imperfect - maybe even useless - weapon against their anti-ship and surface-to-air capabilities. It can&#x27;t defeat the 3rd world and it can&#x27;t defeat a superpower. The question is: is the price worth what it can do (which is defeat 2nd tier powers &#x2F; proxy adversaries for the next ~25 years)? Or is there something which can do that better?
SteveNuts将近 7 年前
In theory, a unified platform for all three air support roles is a good idea, but I think it&#x27;s becoming apparent that airframes are too complex of systems to make universal.<p>I really hope they can overcome the issues because overall it should help with logistics and cost over the long term.
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bitL将近 7 年前
Maybe it&#x27;s a disaster in the sense of Windows Vista being a disaster - without it there wouldn&#x27;t have been Windows 7? So even if the current version is underwhelming, the production chain is set up and the next version will have all quirks ironed out...
neom将近 7 年前
The problem I have with the article is that it doesn&#x27;t actually ever talk about if the ideas are good or not. It points out that the MVP of the ideas need a lot of work, and talks at length of why they don&#x27;t work. For example, he spends a lot of time talking about how maintenance on the F35 isn&#x27;t the same as the F18, so people who maintain the engines will have to change how they work, and new types of people will have to be added. Most interesting part of the article for me was learning about passive detecting. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;VERA_passive_sensor" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;VERA_passive_sensor</a>
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Jerry2将近 7 年前
After reading this, I came across this article:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=17479508" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=17479508</a><p>I was genuinely shocked when I read some of these points. I still have hard time believing things like survivability after the ejection and the need to repaint after every flight.
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Waterluvian将近 7 年前
I&#x27;m thinking about the Eisenhower interstate system and maybe Americans just have to figure out how to make crumbling infrastructure a national security terror. There&#x27;s clearly money. Let the military complex have it to build bridges instead of bombers.<p>I&#x27;m also reminded by the amazing technology in the US carriers. They&#x27;re floating disaster response bases. Again, find ways to funnel military money into repurposable technologies. It&#x27;s palatable and it has value beyond killing power.
flanker将近 7 年前
One size does not fit all, it would be a silver bullet, whenever F35 replaces legacy fighters. Maybe by that time the who theatre of war would change with swarms of drones.
gesman将近 7 年前
&gt;&gt; The F-35 is being sold to the American people ...<p>Can we get a refund?
_bxg1将近 7 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Sunk_cost#Loss_aversion_and_the_sunk_cost_fallacy" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Sunk_cost#Loss_aversion_and_th...</a>
anovikov将近 7 年前
Thing is, any replacement will take 20-25 years to develop if started today, so better just build more of these and hope to win by numbers.
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trocadero将近 7 年前
The article waves away the stealth benefits but that&#x27;s the number one issue. If a low radar signature is important then everything else is irrelevant. And I think it is. It doesn&#x27;t matter if a F-16 can out dog fight a F-35 because that&#x27;s not how the engagement will play out. The F-35 will shoot down an F-16 before the F-16 knows it&#x27;s there.
badrabbit将近 7 年前
The &quot;elephant in the room&quot; is the grand bet western nations (led by the US) are making by investing in advanced and sophisticated weapons.<p>Historically, you did need good weapons and vehicles&#x2F;horses&#x2F;planes but there has always been a balancing effect caused by how much of them you have, how many troops can operate them and how well defended they are.<p>Aircraft carriers are a good example,they compliment existing capability by acting as floating military bases that can take the battle to the enemy&#x27;s homeland. But that&#x27;s the thing,they compliment,they don&#x27;t replace.<p>Even if the F35 delivered as promised,is it better to have 10 F35 , 50 F18 or even better -- 1000+ armed drones?<p>They&#x27;re making Navy boats smarter and more powerful as well,requiring fewer sailors. I am not against smarter technology and advanced capabilities. But it just doesn&#x27;t seem wise to replace man count and existing capabilities when the new tech hasn&#x27;t been battle tested against a worthy adversary.<p>I wouldn&#x27;t want to rely on a few powerful counter measures,but rather a large number of &quot;good enough&quot; defensive and offensive technology.<p>But that&#x27;s why I called it &quot;the elephant in the room&quot;,this could work and actually counter-act other future super powers. Or history would repeat itself and the opponents will win with sheer troop count and &quot;good enough&quot; weaponry.<p>The US spends 20% of gdp on the military,yet it is quite obvious the greatest threat is internal strife and divisions typically exasperated by economical divisions. Not to mention, severe lack of physhical fitness for military-age men and women. Military leaders already consider this a national security threat. I have a feeling this might be one of the reasons they&#x27;re relying on technology so much. They don&#x27;t think they can mobilize and train enough soldiers in the event of yet another world war. It would be much easier to have them operate drones and wear head gear with HUD (just like in the games) that costs a fortune. They might just be playing to the nation&#x27;s strength. But still,maybe if they spent 10% instead of 20% in defense (even russia and china don&#x27;t spend close to 10%) ,and use that 10% for internal socio-economic stability and just maybe enact mandatory military service,that might be wiser than relying fully on technology that hasn&#x27;t been battle tested against the intended scenario and adversary.<p>Will economic strength and advanced weaponry be enough? Maybe,but many empires with all that and more have fallen for various reasons. Economy aside,the cancerous defense-contractor industry that is the cause behind why so much of the GDP goes into defense is one of chief internal security threats. The whole industry is structured around politics so that politicians in specific districts approve spending in exchange for jobs+economy in their district. Many articles and blogs on that specific issue(e.g.: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theatlantic.com&#x2F;magazine&#x2F;archive&#x2F;2015&#x2F;01&#x2F;the-tragedy-of-the-american-military&#x2F;383516&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theatlantic.com&#x2F;magazine&#x2F;archive&#x2F;2015&#x2F;01&#x2F;the-tra...</a>)
knuththetruth将近 7 年前
It’s good to remember these kinds of corrupt disasters whenever someone says we can’t afford to pay for things like universal healthcare and free public universities in the US.
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trophycase将近 7 年前
1.4 trillion is an absolute joke. Invest that in infrastructure or energy security and I am absolutely certain that you would obtain an order of magnitude better ROI than whatever sort of benefit (protective, preemptive, deterrent, or otherwise) you are getting from these planes.<p>This is truly an unfathomable amount of money that I feel it&#x27;s hard to understate.<p>Edit: I&#x27;ll admit the helmet cam seemed pretty cool but 600k feels like a lot.
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