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Transaction Costs and Tethers: Why I’m a Crypto Skeptic

44 点作者 zonotope将近 7 年前

13 条评论

keymone将近 7 年前
&gt; So that’s why I’m a crypto skeptic. Could I be wrong? Of course. But if you want to argue that I’m wrong, please answer the question, what problem does cryptocurrency solve?<p>Secure, trustless, decentralized consensus. Or in practical terms - a ledger database that everyone can write into without having to trust third parties to maintain correctness.<p>It’s strange author doesn’t seem to attribute any value to solution to that problem.<p>It’s also strange author doesn’t know it has very strong link to reality - security of the system is proportional to hasrate.<p>Seems like just another case of a guy arguing without having understanding on the topic?
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darawk将近 7 年前
&gt; And these costs aren’t incidental, something that can be innovated away. As Brunnermeier and Abadi point out, the high costs — making it expensive to create a new Bitcoin, or transfer an existing one — are essential to the project of creating confidence in a decentralized system.<p>No they aren&#x27;t. See: Proof of stake, Lightning network.<p>&gt; Bitcoin is real without knowing who issued it, so you need the digital equivalent of biting a gold coin to be sure it’s the real deal, and the costs of producing something that satisfies that test have to be high enough to discourage fraud.<p>This is a pretty wildly inaccurate analogy of why the Bitcoin network uses mining.<p>&gt; Bear in mind that conventional money generally does its job quite well. Transaction costs are low.<p>To pay in cash, yes. To pay digitally? You&#x27;re paying high credit card fees. So, no, not really.<p>&gt; The purchasing power of a dollar a year from now is highly predictable – orders of magnitude more predictable than that of a Bitcoin.<p>Disingenuous argument. If the US dollar were invented 10 years ago, it&#x27;d be highly volatile today too. The fact that Bitcoin is volatile today is only relevant if you are going to argue that that volatility is <i>inherent</i> to cryptocurrencies. An argument which may be valid, but that Paul fails to make.<p>&gt; Using a bank account means trusting a bank, but by and large banks justify that trust, far more so than the firms that hold cryptocurrency tokens.<p>Because using a cryptocurrency does not require trusting <i>anyone</i>.<p>&gt; But gold does have real-world uses, both for jewelry and for things like filling teeth, that provide a weak but real tether to the real economy.<p>You mean the way darknet markets provide a weak but real tether to the real economy? You literally <i>just</i> enumerated Bitcoin&#x27;s tether&#x27;s to the real economy. Also, the idea that the gold market is in any way meaningfully tethered to its industrial usage is a complete joke.<p>There are really great arguments against Bitcoin and crypto-currencies. All of which Paul Krugman completely fails to make in this piece. The best of which he&#x27;s positioned to make, too! Bitcoin is a deflationary asset - that&#x27;s a real problem for anything trying to be a currency. That&#x27;s a great case against it, and one close to Krugman&#x27;s heart.<p>This article is seriously disappointing.
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pdonis将近 7 年前
Of course Krugman can&#x27;t see what problem cryptocurrencies are supposed to solve. That&#x27;s because the problem they are supposed to solve--government manipulation of money--is not something he sees as a problem.
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UncleEntity将近 7 年前
&gt; If you like, fiat currencies have underlying value because men with guns say they do. And this means that their value isn’t a bubble that can collapse if people lose faith.<p>Until the value does collapse that is, just look at &lt;how many?&gt; examples of hyperinflation in my lifetime.
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montalbano将近 7 年前
Nick Szabo, who some people thought might be Satoshi, wrote an interesting essay&#x2F;paper on &quot;micropayments and mental transaction costs&quot; for those interested:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nakamotoinstitute.org&#x2F;static&#x2F;docs&#x2F;micropayments-and-mental-transaction-costs.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;nakamotoinstitute.org&#x2F;static&#x2F;docs&#x2F;micropayments-and-...</a>
bittcto将近 7 年前
Krugman, in a real way, is why Bitcoin exists.<p>He literally advocated a housing bubble. (Broken Window fallacy)<p>The housing bubble collapsed causing bailouts of banks.<p>Bitcoin is a direct response to this nationalization of private losses. Not to mention the century of financial corruption that preceded it.<p>Satoshi was not coy.<p>The genesis block contains the text: “Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”.<p>Of course Krugman is a “skeptic”.<p>Bitcoin repudiates his entire career, ideology and work, and is having a significant positive impact in the world.<p>Unlike Krugman.<p>Every year bitcoin continues it gets stronger, it rewards supporters and forces the corrupt banking system Krugman endorses into the light a bit more.<p>Krugman and other nocoiners hate bitcoin?<p>Bitcoin don’t care.<p>This is what you have to understand about bitcoin:<p>Bitcoin doesn’t have to care.<p>It’s the first real tool of individual financial sovereignty.
394549将近 7 年前
I&#x27;m not a crypto skeptic: things like encryption, one-way hashing, etc. are extremely important, fundamental technologies with loads of math and experience behind them. They work, and should be used widely.<p>Crypto-currencies are a totally different story. For one, many of them are scammy rich quick schemes that have used greed to influence the technically unsaavy to corrupt the English language.
safgasCVS将近 7 年前
In science if a theory doesn&#x27;t work in practice then the theory is wrong.<p>In economics if reality does not conform to theory then it&#x27;s reality thats at fault<p>No I&#x27;m not saying bitcoin is the future but millions of users are freely choosing to use this system seems to count for nothing against some theoretical failings in Krugman&#x27;s eyes.
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api将近 7 年前
There are good reasons to be skeptical of some things in the cryptocurrency world, but whenever I see people high in the existing financial system talking this way about it I can&#x27;t help but think of RIAA executives in the late 1990s arguing that the Internet should be shut down.
douglaswlance将近 7 年前
Crypto skeptics always discount the value of the network.<p>&gt;If speculators were to have a collective moment of doubt, suddenly fearing that Bitcoins were worthless, well, Bitcoins would become worthless.<p>It wouldn&#x27;t though. The bitcoin network itself has a non-zero value.
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dalbasal将近 7 年前
This is kind of a disingenuous story. Coins were not particularly burdensome, relative to paper. Gold is light. Anyway, people always used credit mostly.<p>A phoenician ship at a minoan harbor didn&#x27;t need to buy gold in order to trade purple dyes for bronze ingots and olive oil. They used hardor-credit or <i>something</i>. It was probably &quot;gold backed&quot; too, in the sense that it was denominated in gold or silver even if no metals were present.<p>Money and credit are intertwined. We can always make money by loaning it to eachother.<p>I think both the crypto-libertarian sm and Krugman&#x27;s veiled response to it miss that point. Also, neither have much to do with cryptocurrency&#x27;s success or lack thereof.
johndevor将近 7 年前
&gt;But if you want to argue that I’m wrong, please answer the question, what problem does cryptocurrency solve? Don’t just try to shout down the skeptics with a mixture of technobabble and libertarian derp.<p>&quot;Technobabble&quot; and &quot;libertarian derp&quot; are pejoratives clearly designed to shut down the conversation in certain places. He can use those terms to disregard basically any argument, as Bitcoin is both technical and libertarian in nature.
21将近 7 年前
Obligatory quote from the same author made in 1998:<p>&gt; <i>The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’ — which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants — becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s</i><p>EDIT: Really? Downvoted for stating a true context fact?
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