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US housing market hit a ‘significant slowdown’ in recent weeks, Redfin CEO says

172 点作者 xfour将近 7 年前

18 条评论

ChuckMcM将近 7 年前
There are all sorts of reasons that house sales slow down, not the least of which are reduced tax benefits, higher interest rates, and a general market forces.<p>The interesting thing to watch for is the flipper sales. Which is to say if a significant chunk of the market in your area is actually being held by people who bought the house just to flip it, then when you get two or three months of flat to downward pressure on house prices they will all yell &quot;Peak!&quot; and run for the exits. Then you&#x27;ll see a nice flurry of downward movement as these folks try to unwind their position before the market falls into a hole that loses them money. Pro tip, there aren&#x27;t enough chairs and the music is no longer playing :-).<p>That could bring some welcome relief for home buyers who have struggled in the &#x27;no contingency cash only&#x27; markets like parts of the Bay Area.
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ProfessorLayton将近 7 年前
The upcoming changes in the tax code certainly did not help the housing market:<p>- The new SALT cap is extremely low, particularly if you own a home in the Bay Area. 10K! Mitigative solution: Stay put and keep current tax base, hampering both supply and demand (for a nicer home)<p>- The doubled standard deduction made owning <i>with a mortgage</i> less attractive (But a win overall once your loan is paid off enough).<p>- Mortgage interest deduction lowered from 1M to 750K (I believe it&#x27;s 1&#x2F;2 if you&#x27;re buying alone). Houses are so expensive here this actually matters. On the supply side: More post-tax money + higher interest rates means those who locked into great rates won&#x27;t want to sell, or want to buy a more expensive home. On the demand side: All of the above means everything just got even more expensive.<p>EDIT: Regardless of what your stance is on mortgage interest deductions, there&#x27;s no doubt that the upcoming tax code changes threw cold water onto the housing market.<p>This wouldn&#x27;t be such an issue if there was more supply in the first place, but here we are.
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pyoung将近 7 年前
Anecdote, but my wife and I dropped out of the market recently and rented instead. The rent was 30-40% cheaper than a mortgage would have been on a similar place (including taxes, insurance, etc...). So we figured we would just put the after-tax difference into a 401k (because 401k is pre-tax, for every dollar we &#x27;saved&#x27; in housing cost, we are putting ~1.4 dollars into 401k). I figure that building equity in a house has similar investment timeline to the 401k, so it doesn&#x27;t really bother me whether my net worth comes from one or the other, and unlike a house I can diversify the 401k via different index funds. In terms of ROI, the buy vs rent calculators are all starting to lean towards renting[1], so unless we are going to be in the same house for 12-15 years (unlikely) renting seems to win (and this assumes fairly good&#x2F;neutral economic outlook, if you turn some of the knobs on the calculator to assume negative growth, oh boy...) .<p>Add to the fact that most folks don&#x27;t really know how the new tax laws will impact them until they do the calculations early next year, and the fact the rising interests rates should put downward pressure on the market, and the rather volatile political situation (who really knows where this tariff thing is going to go, and how it will impact the economy), and it just made more sense to wait it out.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;2014&#x2F;upshot&#x2F;buy-rent-calculator.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;2014&#x2F;upshot&#x2F;buy-rent-cal...</a>
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CamTin将近 7 年前
Just today (in Austin) I saw a banner by the road outside a bank offering &quot;100% financing&quot; for homebuyers. If banks breathlessly pitching to lend buyers the entirety of a home&#x27;s price is not a sign of an overheated debt-led housing market, I don&#x27;t know what is.
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mortenjorck将近 7 年前
The Case-Shiller Index currently has home prices rising at 2-3x inflation: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.housingwire.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;46307-case-shiller-home-prices-rising-at-least-twice-the-rate-of-inflation" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.housingwire.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;46307-case-shiller-home...</a> That would certainly seem to be unsustainable.
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arenaninja将近 7 年前
I wonder if the trade hostilities are affecting foreign (particularly Chinese) real estate purchases in the US. I suspect this is the case, but it&#x27;s probably not enough to significantly contribute to the slowdown (at least not more so than rising mortgage rates and overheated prices)
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ntkachov将近 7 年前
I can put some perspective on this. We got priced out of the market in Feb. According to the bank, we can&#x27;t get a mortgage where the overall cost of the payments on all our debt can&#x27;t exceed 41% of our pre-tax income. Given that our student loans eat about 20% of our pre-tax income, that means we only have 20% of our income left for housing. Rising interest rates means that more of our house payment goes to interest which means less of it is left for principal, so we cannot afford the same home we could last Oct. The tax incentives used to mean that we could deduct a good chunk of our housing costs from our taxes and use some of that money to live, bringing it inline with what we would pay for rent. However, that changed and made renting easier on us financially.<p>High student loan payments and high mortgage rates means that the only thing left to give is the price of the home. Or the bank can be cool with us leveraging ourselves to 50+% income.
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mjevans将近 7 年前
Housing is only an &#x27;investment&#x27; because of how expensive it inherently is.<p>However, my opinion has been that housing &#x2F;has been&#x2F; in a bubble since at least the mid 2000s (pre recession); and it didn&#x27;t actually deflate (at least in the area I live in) &#x2F;during&#x2F; that recession.<p>It would really be nice if some way of fixing this bubble chasing nonsense happened. Maybe if healthcare and retirement were fully socialized this would be less of an issue.
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farnsworth将近 7 年前
I closed on a condo in Seattle literally this morning. Did I buy at the exact worst possible time?
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dijit将近 7 年前
At some point you hit the cap of what people can possibly spend.<p>Depressed earnings in all but a tiny sector, and incredibly inflated house prices.<p>Perpetual growth is unsustainable in this manner, but is expected by investors.<p>I hope the market corrects. Not for my sake (I live in Sweden and have no US desires) but for those who hope to have a life and family near their ancestral home.<p>I am not preaching to the choir of HN, people on this site generally have it a lot better than the people who also live in the places that are huge tech hubs.
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benatkin将近 7 年前
If they were assuming that because I turned 30 this decade I&#x27;d suddenly become interested in owning a home, they were wrong! If the financial pundits believed all the articles the culture pundits were writing about millennials they could have known.
h4b4n3r0将近 7 年前
About time it slowed down. My house is over 2x what I paid for it 6 years ago. I pay $10k&#x2F;yr in taxes just to live in it, WTF.
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blairanderson将近 7 年前
Seattle has significantly slowed.
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greglindahl将近 7 年前
Misleading label from HN - article is amp from Market Watch, not actually google.com.<p>Ideally, HN would point at the original.<p>Personally, my phone Adblock prevents google from spying on my traffic in general, but these cached amp links get tracked by google.
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nielsbot将近 7 年前
non-AMP link: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.marketwatch.com&#x2F;story&#x2F;housing-market-has-hit-a-significant-slowdown-in-recent-weeks-redfin-ceo-says-2018-08-09" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.marketwatch.com&#x2F;story&#x2F;housing-market-has-hit-a-s...</a>
parrellel将近 7 年前
Why does this link say Google?
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Animats将近 7 年前
The article title needs punctuation.
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paulie_a将近 7 年前
Redfin didn&#x27;t exactly do anything interesting or unique. It was literally yet another real estate app&#x2F;website. It&#x27;s not surprising.
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