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Financial Modeling for Startups: An Introduction

276 点作者 lhh超过 6 年前

11 条评论

jimnotgym超过 6 年前
Finance person here, this is a good grounding of the basics. The hardest part to take forward is working out the timing of things. A company is constantly owed and owing money, and this is the real trick to working out your funding requirements.<p>On top of the model every business needs an operational cash flow forecast going out say 3 months at least. For every day you enter the <i>brought forward</i> balance from yesterday. Then you add and subtract all of the line items of cash inflow and outflow for the day to forecast a closing can balance. It is more than possible for your financing model to show profitability and yet to be insolvent, because you are paying money out before it comes in. Like maybe a big customer pays on the 28th but payroll goes on the 25th...<p>Cash is king as they say, and a daily cash-flow forecast is the main tool that a financial controller would use to maximise it.
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projectramo超过 6 年前
The issue is forecasting revenues.<p>Zoom in and the issue is forecasting unit sales.<p>Zoom in and the issue is forecasting new unit sales.<p>In the example, this line does a lot of the work in the model: &quot;Forecasting New Subscriptions (line 10). We&#x27;ve just entered hardcodes here for simplicity, but these could be the result of calculations related to a marketing &#x2F; sales funnel&quot;<p>I submit that this single assumption will carry more weight than the rest of the model, and is the most difficult to forecast.
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thinkingkong超过 6 年前
This is great. If you like this sort of thing you can go one step down the modeling path and take a great coursera course called “Model Thinking” [1] which totally gave me a different appreciation for spreadsheet nerdery (you use lots of different tools).<p>1. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.class-central.com&#x2F;course&#x2F;coursera-model-thinking-317" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.class-central.com&#x2F;course&#x2F;coursera-model-thinking...</a>
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AmericanChopper超过 6 年前
When I had to produce my first financial documents like this, I went out and looked at public companies that had similar enough business models to mine, and read all their annual reports. Then I figured out what metrics are worth tracking or that I wanted to track, and pretty much just copied their methodology (which they described in their statements).<p>Another thing worth considering, if you hate The Sheet, or if it’s getting out of control, considering putting your data into a database and reporting with redash. It’s a also a very convenient way to share data internally.<p>Also, in my experience, the thing that mattered most was customer acquisition cost to lifetime value ratio.
daveungerer超过 6 年前
Decent article, thanks for writing it. I think more founders should do a bit of financial modeling.<p>That said, I think most founders should not be forecasting salary expenses on a per-position basis, even if they&#x27;re under 100 employees. In my experience, you definitely won&#x27;t know which positions you&#x27;ll be hiring for further out than 1 year. If you&#x27;re trying to impress investors it might work, but it will have limited utility for you personally.<p>Instead, you should group salaries by function (e.g. sales, engineering) and then make explicit your assumptions about labour efficiency. In the model described in the article, these assumptions are also there, but spread out over 40 rows in a table - not good! Assumptions in models should always be explicit.<p>For example, you could say that, in order to maintain your projected growth, you need to spend 10% of your revenue on sales staff. Or if you&#x27;re aiming to be funded, you might instead work out how much labour it might take to make one sale, and then extrapolate based on how many sales you intend to make in the year.<p>You could look at engineering and decide you need 1 person in your engineering team (disregarding job title) per 100 clients. Then extrapolate, once again, based on number of projected clients. Obviously, software is meant to be scalable, so this all depends on how much up-front development you intend to do and at what pace you intend to add new features, so you might want to factor your growth targets in too.<p>Now, organisations normally bring in layers of management as teams grow. Do you need to account for this? Probably not. Remember, we&#x27;re focusing on labour efficiency. These managers might increase your costs, but the idea is that they also help your teams function in a scalable way. And if you have good managers, the average tenure at your company should increase, leading to higher productivity.<p>The benefit of the above approach is that, now that all your assumptions have been made explicit, you can easily tweak them to see how they impact your model, rather than having to dig through many rows of data.<p>Lastly, and this is nit-picking, but ignoring income tax means this model should only be used to forecast up to periods where the company is not profitable. As soon as there&#x27;s profit it will be completely wrong. Although it&#x27;s a nice simplifying assumption if all you&#x27;re trying to model is your road to break-even.
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zby超过 6 年前
I was just thinking about using stats in startups. For sure you need to know your runway (and burn rate) - but then for SaaS (and similar business with recurring revenues) the first useful statistics is <i>churn</i>. Customers quiting is the most important info when looking for product market fit. Customer groups with lowest churn are your target group (market). Before you start scaling business you need first to decrease churn - because you don&#x27;t want to grow the holes in your system together with it (this metaphor is not mine - but I cannot now find where it came from - but I googled this article instead: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pakman.com&#x2F;churn-is-the-single-metric-that-determines-the-success-of-your-subscription-service-6e82d9d9ea01" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pakman.com&#x2F;churn-is-the-single-metric-that-determine...</a>).<p>Sales statistics become important after you have satisfying churn rate (i.e. after product market fit). With advertising you can quickly grow sales - but if your churn is too big - then the LTV (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Customer_lifetime_value" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Customer_lifetime_value</a>) will be too low. And generally customers that come from advertising will have a bigger churn than those who learned about the product organically.
slowhand09超过 6 年前
Nice writeup. A previous company had us participate in a simulation exercise. Split into teams, move around a board similar to monopoly except you were collecting accounts payable from customers, paying rent and utilities, paying payroll, paying taxes on xyz, lawsuits, etc. CashFlow was king. Losers all were paying bills as they arrived rather than on due dates. They had the money, on paper, but not on time. Timesheet-driven contracting - it showed how important it is to fill-in timesheets so customers can be billed. Miss the cutoff and your 48 hrs gets invoiced two weeks later. Your company doesn&#x27;t thrive when it&#x27;s borrowing money to pay you for time it can&#x27;t bill yet because you forgot to sign your timecard.
tlpappas超过 6 年前
Good brief summary but sometimes high level is just as important. eg. Using the tools to explain how you prioritize spending money raised and connecting it to material signposts is very helpful for funder communications as well as testing out your own ideas in a cohesive framework.
rkagerer超过 6 年前
Good basics but the article is too much on the simple side for me.<p>&quot;There are no hard and fast rules on how to categorize your expenses&quot;<p>Pro tip: Loosely aligning them within recognized tax lines can help simplify things in the early days and reduce work for your accountant.
icedchai超过 6 年前
In my experience with early stage startups, these models are often pure fiction and completely divorced from reality.<p>They look nice to investors. Reality is very, very different.
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keenans超过 6 年前
nice post. also in the &#x27;financial modeling for startups&#x27; space: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;foresight.is&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;foresight.is&#x2F;</a>