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How to Be Wrong (2016)

115 点作者 JonahBraun超过 6 年前

8 条评论

jonathanstrange超过 6 年前
Oh man, I&#x27;m always glad to hear I&#x27;m not the only one who got the Monty Hall problem wrong. Here is my embarrassing MH story.<p>Like Paul Erdős, I resorted to experimentation. Very much unlike Paul Erdős the computer program I wrote contained a one-off error in its PRNG that coincidentally confirmed the wrong result. I then spent a day or so on Usenet insisting stubbornly on the wrong solution until some very kind person on sci.crypt made a complete truth table as a proof. That exhaustive proof immediately convinced me of my idiocy.<p>Lesson: If a bunch of smart and educated people tell you that you&#x27;re wrong, then you&#x27;re probably wrong.
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theaeolist超过 6 年前
As a CS university lecturer, I acknowledge that there is little room for exploration, and the chance of being wrong, in most assessment schemes. Any mistake loses points and lowers the GPA, so nobody likes to make mistakes, however creative and interesting. Shame. The system cannot be easily revised because the students themselves oppose it. To them it seems intuitively unfair that somehow those who make mistakes may get the same points as those who get it right.
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coldtea超过 6 年前
&gt;<i>Sometimes something even simpler than the “I used to think so too but now I know better” criterion can be used to unmask bunk; if there’s a good story and one that’s disappointingly banal, usually the latter is the one that’s unfortunately true.</i><p>A problem with this is that there are now increasingly more people who automatically opt for the &quot;disappointingly banal&quot; story even in cases when the good story is the actually true one (and insist on it) -- because it enables them to take pride in &quot;debunking&quot; and feel superior to others.<p>In other words, where once most people went for the &quot;good story&quot; for psychological reasons (because it&#x27;s more satisfying, makes for interesting talk, etc), now, with the raise of sites like Snopes, &quot;fact-checking&quot; forums, sceptic sites, and so on, there&#x27;s an increasing equally bogus motive for preferring the banal story.<p>(And this is orthogonal to Occam&#x27;s razor. For one, because the banal and the interesting story might be of equal simplicity and with equally few prerequisites. Beside&#x27;s Occam&#x27;s razor is just an observation, not an absolute law: sometimes the more elaborate course is indeed what happened).
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kranner超过 6 年前
vos Savant&#x27;s article on this that lists highlights from the letters:<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;marilynvossavant.com&#x2F;game-show-problem&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;marilynvossavant.com&#x2F;game-show-problem&#x2F;</a>
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Isamu超过 6 年前
Such a great read.<p>&gt;I tell my students that, in the first place, they need to get over the fear of making mistakes.<p>&gt;So my answer to the question “How to be wrong?” is: “Early and often!”<p>&gt;And if you can’t be genuinely modest, fake it. Develop a habit of always acting in such a way that if you prove to be wrong, it won’t make you look really really bad.<p>&gt;certain truths may be denied to us unless we pass through a preparatory stage of error.<p>&gt;For now, I’ll skip ahead to the moral: Sometimes, when you find the right hole, you shouldn’t just put one foot into it. You should jump in with both feet the way Alice did, and see what kind of wonderland it leads to.
bookofjoe超过 6 年前
&quot;Being Wrong — Adventures in the Margin of Error&quot;; wonderful 2010 book reviewed here by Dan Gilbert: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2010&#x2F;07&#x2F;25&#x2F;books&#x2F;review&#x2F;Gilbert-t.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2010&#x2F;07&#x2F;25&#x2F;books&#x2F;review&#x2F;Gilbert-t.ht...</a>
yesenadam超过 6 年前
Wow, I liked it (although none of the Monty Hall story was new to me) until the part where he was disgustingly dismissive and insulting to Semmelweis. Then I stopped reading. A less sympathetic account can hardly be imagined, I thought it was shameful.
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stephengillie超过 6 年前
Be right, from a different point of view.