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Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040

226 点作者 stablemap超过 6 年前

16 条评论

danieltillett超过 6 年前
We are not going to get anywhere until those that benefit from any action pay. Those that will benefit from any action are mostly not even born yet.<p>Imagine if the people of the future living in a trashed world could travel back in time and pay us to do something now. How much would they be willing to pay? Probably far more than it would cost to fix. All they would need to do is invent a time machine and they could come back to now, pay us to fix the problems, and they get to live in an intact world.<p>Given we haven’t had too many visitors from the future flashing the Benjamins around, time machines are likely impossible. We do however have a magic way of allowing the future to pay for actions now as long as we act on their behalf. This magic is called long-term zero-coupon bonds [0]. The idea is we issue a whole lot of zero coupon bonds due in 50 years (or more), use the money to decarbonise the economy and pay off the owners of all the carbon, and the leave it to the future to pay the debt with an intact world.<p>I gave a talk on this idea a bit over 10 years ago which I have up on my blog if anyone is interested [1].<p>0. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Zero-coupon_bond" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Zero-coupon_bond</a><p>1. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tillett.info&#x2F;2015&#x2F;12&#x2F;13&#x2F;preventing-global-climate-collapse&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.tillett.info&#x2F;2015&#x2F;12&#x2F;13&#x2F;preventing-global-climat...</a>
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jamesgagan超过 6 年前
If you are concerned about climate change, stop eating animals. Governments are slow to act, but switching to a plant based diet is something you can do right now.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;environment&#x2F;2018&#x2F;may&#x2F;31&#x2F;avoiding-meat-and-dairy-is-single-biggest-way-to-reduce-your-impact-on-earth" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.theguardian.com&#x2F;environment&#x2F;2018&#x2F;may&#x2F;31&#x2F;avoiding...</a>
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554070超过 6 年前
Does anyone else feel like we&#x27;ll fail to make reasonable progress on climate change? I&#x27;m naturally inclined towards pessimism, but I feel that the political solutions aren&#x27;t going to work out and that the market isn&#x27;t moving fast enough for humanity to get ahead of it.<p>Edit: to clarify, I think that political solutions won&#x27;t work not because there aren&#x27;t good ideas or that we couldn&#x27;t collectively do a lot, but because there&#x27;s too much money and power held by special interest groups that pollute.
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gdubs超过 6 年前
I’ve started buying carbon offsets when our family flies (through carbonfund) and it’s a lot cheaper than what I’d imagined. I think requiring airlines to offer carbon offsets directly in the ticket checkout flow would be impactful. I’d go a step further and have people opted-in by default so they have to un-check a box if they really don’t want to spend the extra ten bucks.<p>Also, as others have said: eating less meat is an effective way to lower your carbon footprint.
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mtreis86超过 6 年前
Link to report:<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;report.ipcc.ch&#x2F;sr15&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;report.ipcc.ch&#x2F;sr15&#x2F;</a><p>Looks like this is the paper that presents the model for the calculations:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.geosci-model-dev.net&#x2F;11&#x2F;2273&#x2F;2018&#x2F;gmd-11-2273-2018.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.geosci-model-dev.net&#x2F;11&#x2F;2273&#x2F;2018&#x2F;gmd-11-2273-20...</a>
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usaar333超过 6 年前
The article seems to paint a rather non-crisis economically, perhaps unintentionally:<p>&gt; The United States, it said, could lose roughly 1.2 percent of gross domestic product for every 1.8 degrees of warming.<p>I guess that&#x27;s in Fahrenheit, but again.. not really scary numbers. We&#x27;re talking about two years of ordinary productivity growth being lost over a decade+. Bad, but nowhere close to resulting in the future being worse than the present, much less society ending.<p>For how much we all worry about global warning, why are the estimated GDP numbers not coming in much worse?
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root_axis超过 6 年前
I think we need to start wrestling with the idea that the anticipated climate crisis is impossible to stop and that it&#x27;s worthwhile to begin preparing to live in a world with a warmer climate.<p>The reality is that most people don&#x27;t care about climate change and the world&#x27;s leadership is increasingly hostile to the idea of dealing with it. Even if our leaders were willing, the absolute dominance of private industry in this regard precludes any possibility of progress on the issue of reducing emissions.<p>On the <i>other</i> hand, we might be able to develop technologies that mitigate the impact of a warmer climate or begin developing and researching strategies to take advantage of agricultural possibilities that might be opened up by a warmer climate. The worst thing we can do right now for the populations that will be impacted by this is to assume there is a possibility that we can curb this disaster rather than taking these 40 to 60 years to brace for impact.
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fersho311超过 6 年前
My wife and I are turning 30 and our parents are starting to pressure us to have kids. However, we had both decided against having kids because the thought of someone we love worrying about global climate change crisis is too much for us to handle emotionally. We tried explaining our concerns to our parents but they don&#x27;t seem to give a shit.<p>Other than sending our parents reports like these, any suggestions on how we can convince our parents that having kids and subjecting them to a lifetime of dealing with global warming might not be such a great idea?
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consumer451超过 6 年前
We need to put a solar shade at L1.[0] That will give us time to switch to a renewable electric economy, before hitting the catastrophic methane release from permafrost thaw.[1]<p>At 7C, mathematical modeling [2] shows that we may lose two thirds of our oxygen generation (plankton) which could lead to complete human extinction within ~3600 years.[3]<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Space_sunshade" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Space_sunshade</a><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Arctic_methane_emissions" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Arctic_methane_emissions</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;link.springer.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;10.1007%2Fs11538-015-0126-0" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;link.springer.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;10.1007%2Fs11538-015-0126-...</a><p>[3] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;link.springer.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;10.1007&#x2F;s12576-016-0501-0" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;link.springer.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;10.1007&#x2F;s12576-016-0501-0</a>
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rdl超过 6 年前
Climate engineering seems like a better bet than massive political&#x2F;economic change across the entire world in advance of clear harm.<p>It is relatively easy (but still difficult in an absolute sense) to get support in sufficiently rich countries to handle clearly demonstrated, immediate threats — clean air, clean water, removal of litter, etc. These also tend to have relatively low costs, and the costs they do impose tend to be on large industries which also have pricing power to pass it along.<p>There have definitely been successful global environmental actions. The CFC&#x2F;Ozone thing was probably the most clear; it was a pretty substantial and demonstrable harm, and the costs of switching were relatively low. (It was painful for fire suppression, since halon is still superior to alternatives, and did require a lot of special stuff around auto air conditioners, but it was basically industries which could pass along costs.)<p>Acid rain&#x2F;sulfur dioxide&#x2F;etc was a lot harder because it crossed jurisdictional boundaries, but within the US it was at least pretty easy to use the federal level. Hasn’t worked as well with China...<p>CO2 has the problems of an indirect link between the pollution and harms (merely raising CO2 in the air is fine; the issue is science showing a few levels downstream this is a problem, and it isn’t as clear as most other forms of pollution.). It is also much more fundamentally tied to economic activity, and alternatives have much higher costs (including higher forms of other pollution due to decreased efficiency...), and is pretty widely distributed across consumers and smaller businesses. As well, a lot of the problem is the 3-4B people living at a lower standard of living who if they industrialize the same way will make 50% reductions in the other 3-4B pretty meaningless.<p>I’d rather bet on climate engineering.
mistrial9超过 6 年前
California recently completed its 4th Climate Assessment task<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.climateassessment.ca.gov&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.climateassessment.ca.gov&#x2F;</a>
rbrbr超过 6 年前
People are too slow with change. Our worldly scenario is unique because we can basically predict our end now. Like weather forecast becomes more precise the closer it gets to the forecasted day, we know more precisely how and when we will end every day. And like weather, practically there is little we can (will) do to change it.
artur_makly超过 6 年前
Oh but this gets better!<p>This is a great dissertation on how the GeoPolitics will play this little game out: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=Mc_4Z1oiXhY" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=Mc_4Z1oiXhY</a><p>- by Gwynne Dyer
Balgair超过 6 年前
That&#x27;s… well.. bleak. At BEST 1.5 C uptick by 2040? Am I reading that right? That is really not good. Like, as in, really bad, and that is the most optimistic report they can generate? It’s hard to not feel, well, despair here. First, good on the scientists for keeping up with the reporting and modeling. That’s not an easy job. Second, we all know it matters for fuck all. Donny can hardly twit a full sentence, let alone understand anything in that report. If democracy is running out the clock, then autocracy is gumming the pacifier.<p>But, I dunno man. It just feels like we’re closing up the house. Maybe it’s because I just moved out of a bad apartment, but I get that feeling here too. Like, the walls were shoddy, the electrical system was haywire, the neighbors were loud and overcrowding the place, the constant noise was too much, and the fights, oh the fights just outside my bedroom window. It was just nutz. But it feels like moving out of that place, like closing down the house of a recently deceased loved one. There is all the history in a place, all these things and pictures that people made and cherished. But there is no-one left to love them anymore. You’re cleaning out your now dead grandma’s stuff, going through photos that you’ve no idea about, if she really thought well of the people or the place in it, those clothes of your long dead grandfather” These were his dress blues from when he just got out” Maybe he’s buried in another set, but only grandma would know and she is gone. And you know it’s important that someone know if Joe is resting in his blues or not, but no-one will know ever again.<p>That feeling of a deep clouded sea; you know it goes down down down, but you’ve no idea how deep or what leviathans of a life are flitting about in there, and the light is going out and the air is cooling and the fog is rolling in and you have to go back to the docks and you know you’ll never be back out there to that spot of ocean.<p>It’s that final echoing feeling of that dark, dingy apartment. You had so much emotion there, so much life, not all of it bad. You know the floorboards that creak just so, the time that the garbage company comes in the mornings, how your cat really loves that one warm sport near the equinoxes. But now the musty smell of the shower mixed with the bleach and it’s…. over. The carpets are cleaned and all the fibers lay one way and the other, making dark and light colors from the reflected glow of the blinded window. Somehow the background noise of the crying babies next door is gone, the street murmurs are like ghosts and drum along. You can hear your shoes slap along for the first time ever. All is as you found it, and there is no life you recognize there now. It’s colder on your cheeks.<p>That’s the feeling that I get with these climate reports. Like I am just supposed to be a person that is destined to clean up the house, move out the stuff, as best I can, quietly, mournfully. Like, I am, just here to witness it all, like the bottom of the 9th when the home team is down by 7 and everyone has already gone home in late September, the pennant race long lost, the hopes of summer gone. The lights are still bright as the dark moves in, illuminating a field that everyone is just out on, doing the motions. Like, just sitting there in the stands, hoping, but knowing the game is over. That my job is just to record the score, for the books, that maybe 10 people will ever look at. Trying to secret away scrolls from the Ostrogoths, for a brighter time. I’m hoping that being a witness means something for the future. That acting like Samuel Pepys will make me the next one, because I know it’s so fantastically unlikely that I will be, but I’ve nothing else to do really. Like walking around empty streets after the bars close and the rain lets up, neon reflecting off the asphalt.<p>I know the game’s not over, but I can’t help but sigh with each out. I can’t help but linger in the last darkness of the cleaned house, that single light left to turn off. I can help but just wipe my face as the boat hums back into the docks, not knowing if the salt is from the water or a tear.
wiz21c超过 6 年前
FTA : &gt;&gt;&gt;Ms. Warrick said her organization intends to campaign for governments to invest in carbon capture technology. Such technology, which is currently too expensive for commercial use, could allow coal to continue to be widely used.<p>I hope we&#x27;ll talk about the pulmonary diseases her family will get in some years<p>second point : this post lasted less than 24 hours on HN&#x27;s home page. It&#x27;s a telling sign.
patrickg_zill超过 6 年前
The skeptical part of me seems bound to point out that we&#x27;ve been told that it would happen by 2020, or even earlier.
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