My predictions on how this is going to go:<p>- A few major developers will get on board with this, and publish their mainstream titles via the App Store. This will lend credibility.<p>- Indie developers will jump on next, seeing another low-friction distribution medium that gives them more eyeballs (at least at first) than they were previously getting.<p>- Enter the "fart apps", ie. low-value applications that do one thing (poorly), but only cost $0.99 or are free, providing downward pricing pressure for everyone else in the App Store.<p>- Another OSX release comes and goes, this time with warnings to users whenever they install "unsigned" applications. Developers are encouraged to get Apple to sign their apps prior to shipping, even if they're a boxed app on the shelf, to prevent the user from seeing the big scary warning. Conveniently, this is a very similar process to submitting an app to the App Store; App Store distribution increases.<p>- A few more OSX releases ensue, Apple stops signing applications that aren't also distributed via the App Store. Distribution of software outside of the App Store (boxed software, online direct-to-user, competing digital distribution like Steam) begins to wither on MacOS.<p>I'd hope it goes without saying that I'd like to be proven wrong about the above.