Internet TV and The Death of Cable TV, really

Cable isn't totally out of the loop on IP. I've seen some demos of Cisco's IPTV solution for cable operators (vDoc) and it's a really good solution. I would expect to see it start replacing a lot of traditional linear video services within 3-5 years. So what will most likely happen is Comcast Cable TV will become another IPTV video service delivered via your cable modem. This will give the providers an opportunity to continue bundling packages in a mostly anti-competitive way. So for example data service + Comcast IPTV is $100/month but data service alone without Comcast IPTV is $90/month. Part of this strategy includes data caps. Comcast IPTV won't count against your 250GB/month in the same way PacketCable voice traffic doesn't count against your cap today. This won't kill off other IPTV solutions entirely but cable operators are going to have a big competitive advantage.

The key caveat is buried in one sentence in the second-to-last paragraph:<p>&#62; I know a lot of folks who keep cable for live sports, but cable surviving as a sports-only service is hard to fathom.<p>As long as sports are not available <i>live</i> anywhere else, cable will continue to rule. Because of the bundle packages people are forced to buy, they'll keep buying everything else as well.

Anecdotally: I never plan on subscribing to any traditional TV service (Cable, Satellite, etc). I can watch all of my shows online, between Hulu and Netflix. Also, I never plan on getting a traditional landline, as my cell phone coupled with Skype and Google Voice does the job quite nicely.<p>The only way I will get either of the two above mentioned services is if it's bundled inexpensively in a home data package (ie. Verizon FiOS or AT&#38;T Uverse), because bandwidth is all that I really want/need.

Satellite services are also feeling the heat:<p>I was surprised to get a call from Directv a few nights ago offering a slight reduction in cost and 6 months of "everything free." My wife has been digging getting all of the channels but since we are both heavy Netflix streaming customers, we may drop Directv in a few years when all programs are available for a reasonable fee on the Internet but we are in no hurry because Directv does offer a great product.<p>Off topic but: it is really important that new entertainment business models do not freeze out small content producers. I want more options, not fewer, and I would hope that a pay as you watch (or with commercials) Internet option will help small producers thrive.

I've been cable free for nearly a year now.<p>Not only do I find myself spending less time zoning out in front of the faint glowing glory of my TV, when I do, I'm generally watching stuff that is more ... substantial? than I was before.<p>I get Netflix on my 360. I have a heavily modded mac mini serving up Plex (content via RapidShare and Usenet) and Hulu. I do VOD-style on both the 360 and PS3 for newer movies. iTunes for TV show subs.<p>I save about $100 a month.

Does anybody know of good articles that describe how new TV content is paid for and how this is linked to pay TV subscriptions. Are Google, Apple and Netflix going to have to go into the business of making new content if they run the traditional networks out of business?

Every single one of my close friends is done with broadcast/cable/satellite.

Yeah, right. I don't see it happening. The idea of getting rid of all cable is very popular with this kind of crowd, as well as the "Man cannot stop telling people he doesn't watch TV" crowd (of Onion fame) but in reality it's just not really there yet and I'm not sure about the idea of killing off cable is really coming any time soon.