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What Minimum-Wage Foes Got Wrong About Seattle

90 点作者 herrkanin超过 6 年前

15 条评论

elicash超过 6 年前
All the top-level comments are making excuses for inconvenient facts. I&#x27;m guessing a lot of folks on Hacker News believe themselves to be objective analysts and yet are blind to how their bias against the minimum wage is causing them to look foolish in ignoring any new information that might possibly conflict with their world view.<p>The ONLY proper response if you&#x27;re a critic of this study (if not with the methodology, which nobody here has found ANY problems with) is to say, &quot;well there&#x27;s a wide variety of findings on minimum wage.&quot; Instead, you have people intentionally misreading the study, making ideological claims about the &quot;value&quot; of the work minimum wage workers do, or a conspiratorial claim they reversed because of &quot;pressure&quot; without any evidence whatsoever.<p>It&#x27;s quite sad to see people so willing to reject inconvenient facts.
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jillesvangurp超过 6 年前
Germany actually just introduced minimum wage a few years ago. They did not actually have this. Their unemployment rate is at an historic low. So the arguments used against that here did not quite pan out either.<p>But of course Germany was a bit of an anomaly in Europe: this stuff is old news to most of the rest of Europe.<p>Regardless of ideology, the debate seems to be about the cost of minimum wage (especially on the right side) and not really about the benefits. The benefits of not having abject poverty in your society are many. Minimum wage is an important tool for that. Regardless of your position on this, you&#x27;d have to consider both cost and benefits for any analysis worthy of that word.<p>To name just one such benefit, people with disposable income tend spend that income on things. This is great for the local economy. So instead of funneling money up the corporate hierarchy towards off shore accounts, a second house for the CEO, or whatever, funneling money back into the economy where it actually gets used has an effect on that economy: it grows.<p>Seattle seems to be doing fine demonstrating that this works as advertised. More people can afford to go to restaurants so the restaurant business is booming. That should not be that surprising to economists.
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manfredo超过 6 年前
&gt; But a new paper by the same authors (Sci-Hub mirror) shows that the rising minimum wage generated major increases for the workers who had the most hours, whose hours were only cut a little, but still came out ahead thanks to the wage increase; workers with fewer hours saw no financial harm from the rising minimum wage, working fewer hours and bringing home the same sum; and they found some harm to people who had the smallest number of hours) (which may actually reflect stronger demand for workers and fewer workers in this category of very-low-hour work).<p>Is this actually reversing the claim? Or just making a narrower claim that the minimum wage hike increased <i>some</i> workers. Most claims around the negative effects of minimum wage say that workers will lose employment - not that those workers who remain employed will suffer. By restricting the conclusion to &quot;the workers who had the most hours, whose hours were only cut a little&quot; essentially dodges the question of whether the change benefited workers as a whole.<p>Ultimately, though, this is a subjective questions. If you have 10 workers, making $12.50 an hour and if you had the option of making 9 of them get $15.00&#x2F;hr but one of them gets fired is it a good outcome? The pool of workers are making a greater amount of money (it &quot;breaks even&quot; as other commenters have put it), but does that $2.50 an hour increase for 9 workers offset the negative of one of them getting fired? Maybe getting fired has less tangible effects that make the net increase not worth it. That fired worker may end up on the streets. Is instability of income is a greater problem than low income? I&#x27;m not saying there is any right answer here, my whole point is that it&#x27;s subjective to determine what outcome is better.
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xae342超过 6 年前
This issue isn’t about economics of course, but what I don’t quite understand is why the right feels like it’s an injustice to change the playing field, like it’s cutting in line, or will put the laws of nature into chaos if someone gets more than their fair share for the work they did. I really don’t follow...
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ctdonath超过 6 年前
Still makes it practically illegal to produce less than $15&#x2F;hr value. Can&#x27;t produce that much? no work for you.<p>This ensures that, even in the article&#x27;s revised view, those who <i>do</i> suffer are those most needy.
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bigfartchili超过 6 年前
As a small business owner in a state that recently passed minimum wage hikes up to 50% higher than 5 years early let me share my experience. We have raised wages pretty dramatically but realistically it has absolutely nothing to do with the minimum wage hike. Since unemployment is so low in our state we actively need to compete with other businesses to hire people and the strongest selling point is offering better wages. Now obviously the hike has forced us to pay more than we regularly would.<p>The results of this is that we have raised the amount we charge customers. Those customers then complain that their having to pay more for the same service. At the same time every single apartment in this area has had its rent increased by a large margin. Cost of goods have gone up. Cost of services has gone up. House prices has gone up as labor cost has as well. The people making 15 per hour before are now getting paid the same as the entry level workers. Any employee that has been loyal to the company has not had the same wage increase as the other workers yet they are paying more for everything they purchase.<p>In my opinion minimum wage hike is “working” simply because of the low unemployment rate and the booming economy. The statistics don’t really paint an accurate picture. Ask any of my employees if they are better off today than they were 5 years ago and most would say no. The employees we have had for 5+ years would say they are worse off today.
DINKDINK超过 6 年前
So an economic free lunch, cool. &#x2F;s<p>&quot;Ce qu&#x27;on voit et ce qu&#x27;on ne voit pas&quot;
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AnthonyMouse超过 6 年前
Policy-based evidence making. Reasonable economists find an inconvenient result, so pressure them to recant. Then they print something that doesn&#x27;t contradict the original result, but it&#x27;s less adversarial to the policy, so call it a reversal in the headline.<p>&gt; As was demonstrated back in 1994 by economists Alan Krueger and David Card, modest, gradual wage increases have not been shown to reduce employment or hours worked in any significant way.<p>In other words, small changes have small effects. But also small benefits. What&#x27;s the point of something that at best only breaks even?
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wnevets超过 6 年前
of course it doesn&#x27;t.<p>It also didn&#x27;t bring ford down a ~100 years ago like all of the economists predicted then either.
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ggm超过 6 年前
Needs to get more coverage, weighted by the impact the first claim had. Would a wayback machine for citations help find who is in duty bound to say &quot;that thing we said, cited? they retracted..&quot; or not?
ChrisLomont超过 6 年前
Left out of the boingboing praise, but in the abstract:<p>&quot;On net, the minimum wage increase from $9.47 to as much as $13 per hour raised earnings by an average of $8-$12 per week. The entirety of these gains accrued to workers with above-median experience at baseline; less-experienced workers saw no significant change to weekly pay. Approximately one-quarter of the earnings gains can be attributed to experienced workers making up for lost hours in Seattle with work outside the city limits.&quot;<p>That seems opposite to the summary in Boingboing. It&#x27;s also in agreement with many studies and theory which should price the lowest performing out of jobs as they cannot add enough value to make it worth an employer hiring them. Increased wages by fiat long enough merely increase inflation.
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stuaxo超过 6 年前
This implies that the critism was honest.<p>(Disclaimer, haven&#x27;t read the article)
village-idiot超过 6 年前
Minimum wage is nothing more than a privatized social safety net.
josephh超过 6 年前
WSJ&#x27;s take on the same study: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wsj.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;seattles-fake-free-lunch-1541026906" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wsj.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;seattles-fake-free-lunch-154102...</a>
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paulpauper超过 6 年前
yeah but does that take into account reduced benefits. Amazon raised minimum wage to $15&#x2F;hour, which got a ton of press, but simultaneously eliminated stock compensation for those same employees, which got much less press.
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