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Solar storm of 1859

109 点作者 nhkssol超过 6 年前

9 条评论

Animats超过 6 年前
Oh, the Carrington Event again. This has been on HN several times. It ought to be on a list of common misconceptions.<p>- This has nothing to do with &quot;EMP&quot;. That&#x27;s a big but brief RF pulse with a rise time around 1ns. This is induced DC in long wires over a period of hours.<p>- The basic effect is that a current is induced in the earth&#x27;s crust, resulting in a DC voltage between grounds at widely separated points. This is mostly a problem for long AC high-tension power lines using wye-connected transformers at each end which run in the same direction as mountains of igneous rock. The DC component can partially saturate the transformer, using up some of its capacity. If undetected, transformers can overheat, and worst case, burn out. This occurred on March 13, 1989 on some lines in the eastern US.<p>- PJM, which runs the northeastern US power grid, is now prepared for this. See PJM&#x27;s training manual for this[1], starting at page 22. They get 1 to 6 days warning from the NOAA&#x27;s Space Weather Prediction Center. They have monitoring for unwanted DC flows at multiple points in the power grid. When trouble appears, certain power lines have to have their current reduced.<p>- A few times a year, more at the top of the sunspot cycle, there are warnings of a potential problem. PJM last issued a warning on August 26, 2018. It didn&#x27;t progress to an &quot;alert&quot;, or actual action. There are people in a control room in Valley Forge, PA, and another backup location, watching this. They can reroute power around the trouble spots, call for extra generation output, and dump some loads if necessary. Load dumping starts with bulk buyers of &quot;interruptible power&quot; - aluminum smelters, Bitcoin mines, etc., which are willing to be the first turned off in exchange for a discount.<p>- It&#x27;s not a problem for anything shorter than hundreds of miles. It&#x27;s not a problem for high-voltage DC power lines, like the Pacific Intertie and the really long ones from western to eastern China. It has zero effect on fiber optics or small devices.<p>- When you encounter clueless reporters writing about the power grid, aim them at &quot;PJM 101&quot;, which is a set of introductory training materials on how the power grid works, written for people who run it.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pjm.com&#x2F;-&#x2F;media&#x2F;training&#x2F;nerc-certifications&#x2F;gen-exam-materials&#x2F;gof&#x2F;20160104-conservative-operations.ashx?la=en" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;pjm.com&#x2F;-&#x2F;media&#x2F;training&#x2F;nerc-certifications&#x2F;gen-exa...</a>
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nhkssol超过 6 年前
If you&#x27;re interested in the modern risks of coronal mass injections, there&#x27;s a report called &quot;Solar Storm Risk to The North American Electrical Grid&quot; [0] (2008) that summarizes the topic well. From page 4: &quot;The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years.&quot;<p>[0] <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.lloyds.com&#x2F;~&#x2F;media&#x2F;lloyds&#x2F;reports&#x2F;emerging%20risk%20reports&#x2F;solar%20storm%20risk%20to%20the%20north%20american%20electric%20grid.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.lloyds.com&#x2F;~&#x2F;media&#x2F;lloyds&#x2F;reports&#x2F;emerging%20risk...</a>
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dmix超过 6 年前
&gt; Some telegraph operators could continue to send and receive messages despite having disconnected their power supplies.<p>What a fascinating read.<p>It really makes you happy that this type of solar&#x2F;planetary stuff affecting the earth only happens on such a long timescale where it doesn&#x27;t commonly affect our day-to-day lives as much as earthborn issues such as severe storms or other extreme meteorological events. But it&#x27;s also a shame in some ways:<p>&gt; Myself and two mates looking out of the tent saw a great reflection in the southern heavens at about 7 o&#x27;clock p.m., and in about half an hour, a scene of almost unspeakable beauty presented itself, lights of every imaginable color were issuing from the southern heavens, one color fading away only to give place to another if possible more beautiful than the last, the streams mounting to the zenith
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jefftk超过 6 年前
David Roodman wrote an excellent 4-part analysis of risks from geomagnetic storms for the givewell blog: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.givewell.org&#x2F;tag&#x2F;geomagnetic-storms&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;blog.givewell.org&#x2F;tag&#x2F;geomagnetic-storms&#x2F;</a>
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weavejester超过 6 年前
Ars Technica had a longer article on this: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arstechnica.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;2012&#x2F;05&#x2F;1859s-great-auroral-stormthe-week-the-sun-touched-the-earth&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arstechnica.com&#x2F;science&#x2F;2012&#x2F;05&#x2F;1859s-great-auroral-...</a>
lgats超过 6 年前
What satellite companies and energy providers should I be prepared to short in the event we are expecting another solar storm of this magnitude?
itronitron超过 6 年前
are there any data centers that are shielded from this sort of event?
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mabbo超过 6 年前
If it happened again today, the event itself wouldn&#x27;t be the thing you&#x27;d tell your grandchildren about. It would be the terrifying years afterwards as the world tried to put itself back together.
altitudinous超过 6 年前
Hmm, we always have a science fiction meme that says that says any civilisation that gets to our level of technology will wipe itself out with nuclear weapons or something. This seems like a more real risk, the technology gets sufficiently advanced that it cannot withstand any external shock. 1859 = fine, 2018 it would destroy capitalism and commerce. The same dark abyss we were staring down at the time of the GFC.
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