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The $6T Barrier Holding Electric Cars Back

19 点作者 nikbackm超过 6 年前

7 条评论

GnarfGnarf超过 6 年前
I look forward to no longer having to deal with the absurd complexity of the internal combustion engine: pistons, cylinders, crankshafts, distributors, oil pumps, water pumps, radiators, valves, belts, mufflers... The fact that this finally works semi-reliably is a testament to the genius of the engineers and managers of the automobile industry.<p>Remember that wherever there is a gasoline pump, there is electricity, and the possibility of a charging station.<p>One day the internal combustion vehicle will be seen as quaint as a horse defecating in the street.
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rmtech超过 6 年前
It would be nice to have a comparison cost for the cost of gasoline infrastructure globally.<p>Also, $6Tr seems on the high side to me. That&#x27;s the same as 150 million $40,000 electric cars. Is the infrastructure really that expensive?
Brakenshire超过 6 年前
I don’t really understand why figures like this matter, if people are willing to pay for the electricity at a profitable rate, then the grid infrastructure to meet that demand can be built. There must be very high global costs in maintaining the existing grid, but we don’t get breathless articles saying “global grid must find $x trillion or else blackouts will occur within 5 years”. If there was a sudden spike in demand there would be a sudden availability of private capital willing to meet that demand, the barrier should that occur would be equipment, materials and skill related, but I doubt it would be held back by access to capital.<p>Also, it doesn’t make sense to talk about “affordable electric cars” as a monolith. Electric cars are already cheaper than the alternatives for some people when you calculate Total Cost of Ownership, it depends on your requirements and use case. That will become mainstream step by step in different sections of the market.
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justtopost超过 6 年前
Flagged comment is correct. Gas cars are still superior for actual normal use. The issue is, as long as electric are priced above or similar to conventional cars, is and will continue to be, superior demand. Electrics are for the well to do only still in most areas. I say that as someone who would love an ecar, but find them both unaffordable, and mildly unsuitable for the driving I do regularly. But this is not a shiny metro-dwelling sentiment, so I suspect this comment, dispite being useful and relevant, will end up the same.<p>A plea: There are people outside cities. Lots of them. Stop pretending we don&#x27;t exist, and calling us rednecks&#x2F;flyover&#x2F;etc. Its become a staple of HN and getting worse. It makes me sick to read the comments sometimes. We grow your food, build your infrastructure, but get no empathy when we have no internet access. Its bigotry plain and simple, and rampant here. Usually stated in cowardly downvotes rather than reasoned debate to perserve image. I fully think you should be required to respond, or upvote a response, before downvoting. It would surface the real bias entrenched here.
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joaorico超过 6 年前
It&#x27;s always going to take a few years.<p>The global fleet is about 2 billion passenger and commercial vehicles, and the global yearly production is about 100 million. So even if all new cars sold from now are electric, it will take 20 years.<p>But who knows what kind of autonomous vehicles and other innovations we&#x27;ll have in 20 years. Buckle up :)
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ethagknight超过 6 年前
There is no $6T barrier, the infrastructure already exists. TLDR: This article focuses more on the cost of electric cars (which is valid but not really relevant) with a passing mention on infrastructure.<p>Bloomberg provides no clear backup on the math (“according to Goldman”) but I’m guessing they are pricing a scenario where all electric cars are completely drained and charging to full all at once. Practical usage is more like a trickle charge every night. A step further, electric utilities are thrilled to get to supply this energy to you, and there will be a cat and mouse game as car charging software works to avoid peak electric surge pricing. Electric utility remains the winner, since they can heavily incentivize time-shifted charging (i.e. dont start charging until 1 am, get half price kws!), and they can run their traditional plants more efficiently or even issue firesale pricing notices for sudden oversupply from renewables.<p>There is no barrier, there is modest opportunity, and the implication of the barrier is “i’m not buying a car because the national grad can’t support me!” In the same breath, the article discusses how electric autos are selling like hot cakes.
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arbuge超过 6 年前
&quot;Wouldn’t it be great if we could all drive without dirtying the air we breathe? Alas, not everyone can afford an electric car.&quot;<p>These claims always bother me. Besides the obvious pollution from the generation of electricity required to run the car (in places where clean energy isn&#x27;t available), there are also the issues of energy required to manufacture the car, energy required to replace battery packs after several years, energy required to recycle the car at end of life, etc. Driving without dirtying the air is really hard to achieve if you think about the whole chain of events that goes into that. Far better to live and work within easy travelling distance if you want to have less of a negative impact on the environment.
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