More people (including love him or loathe him Kasparov: <a href="https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1067125702712004609" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1067125702712004609</a>) are finally starting to see that the (rapid) tiebreak is not a foregone conclusion.<p>While people keep looking at FIDE's ranking list (<a href="https://ratings.fide.com/top.phtml?list=men_rapid" rel="nofollow">https://ratings.fide.com/top.phtml?list=men_rapid</a>), most seem to be ignoring the fact that Magnus Carlsen's 2880 rapid rating has not been updated since January. There's simply no guarantee that he's still at a 2880 level. This appears to be quite a quirk with FIDE's rating system - it's certainly not how professional tennis (see: Serena Williams during maternity leave) or cricket rankings work (see: Steve Smith's ranking after starting his 1-year ban).<p>Meanwhile, in the 2017 World Rapid Championship, Carlsen did <i>not</i> finish 1st despite having an Elo above 2900. In fact, he came a "lowly" 5th, and finished behind Bu who was a 254 points behind (seeded 68, or ranked roughly 88). Meanwhile, Anand, seeded 12th but ranked around 17 or 150 Elo behind, won the title.<p>Right now, while Caruana is ranked 10th, he is still higher than many players who have in the past been considered stronger than him at rapid - in tennis terms, the ranking difference is nothing (for the record, he's only 91 Elo behind, if we can trust that system). The pecking order appears perennially turbulent.<p>Lastly, Caruana actually finished 2nd in the 2014 World Rapid Championship - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rapid_Chess_Championship#World_Rapid_&_Blitz_Chess_Championships_(2012–present)" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rapid_Chess_Championship...</a> - it's definitely note far-fetched to consider the question that he could well win the rapid tiebreaks, <i>and also</i> achieve 1st at the upcoming World Rapid Chess Championship (provided it's not held in Saudi Arabia) next.<p>Some more archived tables for dissemination:<p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170909194137/https://ratings.fide.com/top.phtml?list=men_rapid" rel="nofollow">https://web.archive.org/web/20170909194137/https://ratings.f...</a><p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20171115220847/https://ratings.fide.com/top.phtml?list=men_rapid" rel="nofollow">https://web.archive.org/web/20171115220847/https://ratings.f...</a>