Netflix claims Fortnite is now a bigger competitor than HBO

Ex-Netflix here. When I was there we had two metrics we cared about: hours watched and retention. Whenever we introduced a new feature we carefully measured it&#x27;s impact on those two metrics. Ultimately, retention was the most important metric, but hours watched was a leading indicator for retention.<p>I always had a bit of a moral dilemma working at Netflix because my goal was to get people to spend more time watching Netflix, which I didn&#x27;t really think was good for humanity.<p>Either way, it was nice having very clear goals. Netflix was a great company to work for.

<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;anoopr&#x2F;status&#x2F;1071921156687626240" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;anoopr&#x2F;status&#x2F;1071921156687626240</a><p>&gt; the game is background noise. Fortnite isn&#x27;t a game, it&#x27;s a place.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;char.gd&#x2F;blog&#x2F;2018&#x2F;fortnite-is-the-new-hangout-spot" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;char.gd&#x2F;blog&#x2F;2018&#x2F;fortnite-is-the-new-hangout-spot</a><p>&gt; Fortnite is different, because it&#x27;s not even about the game at all: it&#x27;s a place we&#x27;re all going together.<p>&gt; Not only is Fortnite the new hangout spot, replacing the mall, Starbucks or just loitering in the city, it&#x27;s become the coveted &#x27;third place&#x27; for millions of people around the world.

The thing that bothers me about subscription based models is that there is a non linear relationship between value to the customer and revenue. At some inflection point, increasing the value customer gets out of the product does not result in new subscriptions. Wherein, in pay per use models, existing customers will spend more when they get more value out of the product.<p>I have no idea how far away that inflection point is (there are 7+ billion of us, after all), and if this is even the right way to think about subscription based business models. But this is something that always bugged me about them.

The fact that the first hundred or so comments here are just talking about problems with Netflix is a perfect illustration of a generational disconnect.<p>The article is about fortnite becoming a leading entertainment category. This has far more to do with fortnite success than Netflix failure.

This is weird though, because I&#x27;m sure there&#x27;s not a linear relation between &quot;screen time&quot; and &quot;subscription retention,&quot; or at least I wouldn&#x27;t assume so. And given that screen time actually results in server expenses, ideally they would almost want to minimize screen time while maximizing subscription retention. Compare this with TV, for example, where screen time = commercial time.<p>I don&#x27;t know where I&#x27;m going with this.

Anecdotally this rings true. However, I could easily see Fortnite being a fad. A year from now, I wouldn&#x27;t be surprised to see the bulk of Fortnite&#x27;s audience having moved on to something else. Remember Candy Crush? Pokémon Go? Words With Friends?

<i>&gt; How does Netflix find ideas to create or buy original TV shows and movies? </i><p><i>Netflix uses all of the following methods to find new content to buy or create:</i><p><i>- Netflix employs a team of creative executives and buyers, who receive pitches for shows and movies.</i><p><i>- Netflix has deep relationships with the creative community and talent agencies, who propose ideas for shows and movies.</i><p><i>- Netflix may purchase finished works at film festivals or other established venues.</i><p><i>- Netflix may generate an idea internally and hire writers or other creatives to develop those ideas further.</i><p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;help.netflix.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;node&#x2F;100386" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;help.netflix.com&#x2F;en&#x2F;node&#x2F;100386</a>

Netflix is wisely concerned about every other entertainment provider, not just TV or YouTube.<p>A few comments have wondered about Fortnite being a bubble, which it certainly is.<p>But keep in mind that Fortnite did something very similar to Netflix...they dropkicked an industry bent on selling blockbuster titles which just rehash the same content from the previous year. They upended the business model.<p>So of course Fortnite will diminish in popularity over time. But Netflix knows enough not to dismiss their business model, their stickiness, and it’s implications for their future.

Things like this make Amazon&#x27;s purchase of Twitch seem ever more prescient.

It’s interesting in a subscription environment that engagement is still seen as the primary draw. Clearly the bean counters have seen that if a user engages with the platform more than x hours per day&#x2F;week&#x2F;month they’re y percent more likely to keep the service. But this sort of implies that people only want the service when they are actively watching something - I wonder if there’s an a la cart opportunity there, if media was “rightly” priced in comparison to a binge watch on Netflix ($2 an episode is probably FAR too high).<p>It still comes down to content - if you have something all the time that is new an everyone wants to watch, then you get to keep the money flowing.

I would imagine the main impact Fortnite has on Netflix is average screen time, not necessarily the decision whether or not to subscribe...

I believe this. I&#x27;ve been very heavily into games before after being very heavily into watching TV shows and movies. I would always try to talk to my gaming friends about movies and shows and they would all basically say the same thing.<p>&quot;Who&#x27;s got time to watch that stuff?&quot; They were always so busy playing games that they didn&#x27;t have hours every day to sit down and watch stuff.<p>If Netflix could find a way to hook this demographic, they could expand considerably.

For all the Netflix bashing going on here. Netflix has no ads in the middle when I watch a series. NO ADS. I’ll happily pay for HD content without ads.<p>Have you tried amazon prime videos. Their app crashes my TV. Their streaming is garbage even though I pay for HD. HBO is the same. Netflix delivers for what you pay.

In the games industry I&#x27;ve heard discussion of the &quot;real&quot; competition being other forms of screen time for a very long time.<p>Video games are a complex and involved way to spend ones time that requires a lot of commitment and attention in comparison to things like Snapchat, Netflix and Youtube.

Not apples to apples comparing gaming to TV boxsets and movies, So what are they going to do buy up any competition like the rest of corporate monopolies. Bigger concerns for them on the horizon from decentralization platforms <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thetatoken.org&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.thetatoken.org&#x2F;</a> , plus A.I. algorithms, Netflix implements policy changes funnelling, and corralling users extracting data for venture funds requiring big paydays soon! Squeezing users for cash limiting devices using ip residential address, stopping friends sharing costs. Yes in the end they cannibalise themselves.

I wish they were to focus on the quality of the time I spend with the service rather than quantity. Time wrestling the UI for certain doesn&#x27;t count. Time watching a show I forget entirely a month later..? I want to spend as little time possible and get the maximum value from it. I want my life to feel enriched from it. I don&#x27;t want to feel like some junky who wastes they precious limited time addicted to mindless candy.<p>Edit: I know eyeball time is a lot easier to measure. But figure it out! I hear Netflix has some good, talented people.

Watching Fortnite streams on Twitch definatly ate some of my Netflix time (along with bad Netflix content).<p>I am paying for Netflix, HBO Go and Amazon &#x27;whatever they call it&#x27; and the fact that I am watching Fortnite streams means that these services just do not have good fresh content.

Its actually not that &quot;Fortnite steals their users&quot; its a collective shift from TV media to interactive content and especially streaming where users produce content for other users, such as livestreaming fortnite sessions.

Um, how do they know what their customers do when they&#x27;re not watching Netflix..?

I would not know, since I don&#x27;t use both. As of late I found in between HD antenna channels having better older shows than new crap. Heck with a ROKU I can see most all free or pay a small fee to rent some movies!

What happens when Netflix is the only profitable channel of distribution around by killing most competitors and then introduces regular ads?

Netflix will probably join the videogame industry and, in a sense, has already started doing it with the interactive Black Mirror episode.

That reminds me of a story. A gossip magazine editor said, our competitor is not other gossip magazines, but a cup of coffee.

<i>&gt; Indeed, it&#x27;s easy to see why Netflix considers Fortnite a main rival. The free-to-play title is available on almost every platform imaginable</i><p>Not on Linux though (which is a good gaming platform today). Reminds me this: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;flibitijibibo&#x2F;status&#x2F;1079575301485723648" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;flibitijibibo&#x2F;status&#x2F;1079575301485723648</a>

They should really wait until Game of Thrones comes back before disregarding them.

Netflix might be regretting not buying out Twitch.<p>I can see Netflix releasing &quot;Netflix Original Games&quot; or will they move more into game streaming first by paying famous gamers to stream exclusively on their platform, on that front will Netflix move into user-created content like YouTube?

In India Netflix is getting bigger. Doesn&#x27;t change anything.

Surely Fortnite is a fad.

That is an amazing low-key insult.

netflix self produced content is 99% garbage or very low quality heavy dollar movies like birdbox or IO. the script, the acting, the story is a 20year stepback and it feels serve only one purpose: please self justice warriors, putting minorities in strong roles and calling it a movie. the metrics they use are laughable - it is not because everyone watched a movie with sandra bullock in it that the movie is any good. that was all that was available as new content for netflix users and the scarcity of content made them watch a shitty movie.

It takes time for people to realize they could spend the time in better things in life Once they do&#x2F; get bored of the old stuff they move on... hopefully to something productive than passive consumption or winning imaginary trophies..xD